The signing: Miami Marlins sign left-hander Wei-Yin Chen to a reported five-year, $80 million contract with a sixth-year vesting option.
Chen has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors the past couple of seasons with the Orioles, going 27-14 with a 3.44 ERA, ranking 12th among American League starters over that span. Compare his contract to Rick Porcello, who signed a four-year, $82.5 million extension last offseason with the Red Sox after posting a 3.84 ERA the previous two seasons; or Jeff Samardzija, who signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Giants after posting a 3.96 ERA in 2014-15. Chen is on their level and signed for less annual average value.
Chen isn't a big name and the perception that he's a soft-tossing lefty isn't quite accurate. His fastball averaged 91.3 mph in 2015, about average for a lefty, and he mixes in a slider, changeup and curveball. He does have a pronounced platoon split, holding lefties to a .576 OPS in 2015 while righties pounded him with an .815 OPS. That was extreme, but right-handers have always hit him much harder.
The reason: The Marlins needed a starter. They ranked ninth in the NL in rotation ERA in 2015 and return just one starter -- Tom Koehler -- who made more than 20 starts. The rotation now lines up as Jose Fernandez, Chen, Koehler, Jarred Cosart and Adam Conley, with Justin Nicolino and Brad Hand for depth. It's still a thin group, but getting 60-plus starts from Fernandez and Chen will be a big boost.
One thing the Marlins will be counting on: Chen gets to move from Camden Yards and the tough AL East to the more pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Chen does pitch up in the zone and allows a lot of home runs -- 28 in 191.1 innings in 2015, 23 in 185.2 innings in 2014. Chen ranks 137th out of 157 pitchers with at least 162 innings over the past two seasons in home run rate. The interesting thing is that the high home run rate isn't directly a result of Camden Yards: In his four seasons with the Orioles, he's allowed a home run every 28.3 batters faced at home and every 31.6 batters on the road. But keep in mind his intra-division road parks include Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre and Fenway Park.
Marlins Park, however, has the third-lowest home run factor over the past three seasons, according to the "Bill James Handbook," ahead of only Pittsburgh and San Francisco. So Chen should give up few home runs.
The impact: The National League is essentially split into the haves and the have-nots: The Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Giants and probably the Diamondbacks on one side; the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Padres and Rockies on the other. Then there's the Marlins, the team that looks to be stuck in the middle.
They are still thin across the roster, but there is some intriguing upside here if Giancarlo Stanton and Fernandez stay healthy, Christian Yelich continues to hit like he did in the second half, Dee Gordon repeats his All-Star season and Marcell Ozuna rediscovers his 2014 swing. A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps could be a dynamite 1-2 bullpen punch.
And if all that doesn't happen? It's the Marlins. Chen could be trade bait come July.