There's no positive way to spin this story. Chris Colabello got caught, and while his statement says "The only thing I know is I would never compromise the integrity of the game of baseball" and that he doesn't know why or how a banned substance was found in his urine, his statement also doesn't directly deny using an illegal PED. It's couched in carefully worded lawyer speak. Steroid users are still batting 1.000 when it comes to the "What, me?" defense after failing a test.
Colabello, who on Friday was suspended 80 games without pay for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance, had been one of the best feel-good stories in baseball. He's a guy who went to tiny Assumption College in Massachusetts, went undrafted and then spent seven seasons toiling for Worcester in the Canadian-American Association. It's the kind of league that let former Red Sox hurler Bill Lee pitch in a game in 2010 when he was 63 years old ... and he allowed just two runs in 5.1 innings.
The Twins signed him in 2012 and he reached the majors in 2013. He hit .214/.284/.365 in 401 plate appearances with the Twins over two seasons but it was still a story of perseverance. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed him on waivers after the 2014 season and he exploded with one of the most surprising seasons in the majors, hitting .321/.367/.520 with 15 home runs in 333 at-bats. We know the season was fueled in some degree by luck, as he posted a crazy .411 batting average on balls in play. Going back to 25 years, that matched Matt Kemp in 2007 as the highest BABIP recorded with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.
Now it appears something else may have fueled his big season. If we had Statcast data going back beyond 2015 we could compare his exit velocity to determine if he had a big spike. Of course, he could have improved for different reasons than PEDs and his positive came in March, not last season. Still, as my colleague Jerry Crasnick wrote,
I recently talked to a Blue Jays official who said Colabello elicited respect from "everyone in the organization" for his professionalism and uplifting back story. Today's news puts a huge dent in the feel-good narrative. And Colabello has a lot of work to do to resurrect his career -- regardless of the circumstances that led to the suspension.
As for the Blue Jays, replacing Colabello's 2015 production was going to be difficult anyway, as he was due for some regression. Replacing what he'd done so far in 2016 won't be a problem, since he was hitting .069 in 29 at-bats. For now, Justin Smoak likely takes over as the everyday first baseman and he's off to a strange start himself, with the rarely seen .222/.481/.278 batting line. He has eight walks in 27 plate appearances but 13 of his 14 outs have been strikeouts. Who knows what to expect from him. They could move Edwin Encarnacion to first base, but there isn't really a viable DH candidate on the roster. In fact, the Jays called up a pitcher to replace Colabello on the roster, leaving them with just three position players on the bench.
They do have a few possibilities at Triple-A Buffalo: Jesus Montero and Domonic Brown, along with 33-year-old Casey Kotchman. Montero could be a viable option against left-handed pitchers (and platoon partner for Smoak, who is a switch-hitter but better from the left side). None of the three is on the 40-man roster right now, although former Astros third baseman Matt Dominguez is and could be a possible call-up as well.
Anyway, for now it's not a big loss. If Smoak hits like he did last year -- .226/.299/.470, OK but nothing special -- they'll probably move forward and live with him. But given the struggles of Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki in the early going and the lack of production from Ryan Goins and Kevin Pillar, this isn't an imposing offense right now. They're averaging just 3.82 runs per game compared with 5.50 last season. Who would have thought the Jays may need to be looking for offense?