In Game 1 of the American League Division Series between the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox, the Indians led 4-3 in the top of the fifth inning.
There were two outs and nobody on base, Brock Holt at the plate, with Mookie Betts on deck and David Ortiz in the hole. Instead of letting Trevor Bauer finish the inning, Terry Francona made a decision that many believe will change the way managers operate in the future: He summoned Andrew Miller, his best relief pitcher, who proceeded to throw 40 pitches over two scoreless innings as the Indians held on for a 5-4 victory.
The Indians would sweep that series, win the American League Championship Series and reach Game 7 of the World Series, as Francona stuck to his plan of using Miller as the leverage dictated, instead of letting the inning dictate Miller’s usage. Miller made 10 postseason appearances and entered in the fifth inning three times and twice in the sixth. He recorded at least four outs in each outing and pitched at least two innings six times. Analysts who had been advocating for years for exactly this type of bullpen usage were ecstatic.
It wasn’t just Francona and Miller. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts brought in closer Kenley Jansen in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the NL Division Series and let him throw 51 pitches (although Clayton Kershaw had to finish it off). Jansen had a two-inning save in the National League Championship Series and then pitched three innings in a 5-0 loss in Game 6. Aroldis Chapman, who had appeared before the ninth inning just six times in the regular season -- three of those in mop-up situations just to get some work -- entered before the ninth inning in seven of his 13 postseason appearances for the Cubs, including twice in the seventh inning.
Jeff Sullivan of ESPN Insider went back to 1996 and counted all the postseason relief appearances of more than one inning: 2016 ranked first. The average innings pitched for starters dropped to 5 1/3, an all-time low in the postseason. Cubs manager Joe Maddon pulled Kyle Hendricks, the league’s ERA leader, in the fifth inning of Game 3 of the World Series when he was throwing a shutout and again in the fifth inning of Game 7 even though there were two outs, just one runner on and the Cubs up 5-1.
This seems like the new "new thing" -- quick hooks and longer relief stints.
“So you're going to see starters pitch less and less. Relievers will go more, and it's likely that the best relievers will go even more than that. Bullpens will become ever more top-heavy, as managers worry less about overuse in a playoff schedule riddled with off days,” Jeff Sullivan wrote.
“Are bullpens going back to the future?” asked Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. “There was a time when star relievers routinely pitched two or three innings, imposing figures such as Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter waiting in the bullpen to drop the hammer in the late innings.”
My colleague Jayson Stark wrote on Monday that this blueprint could even spill over into the regular season:
Frankly, when we've surveyed veteran relievers about this trend, many have expressed great skepticism that anyone could make it through a season healthy while assuming a workload remotely similar to Miller's postseason role.
But they should know that, in their very own front offices, the folks who are gazing into baseball's future aren't so sure of that. Not anymore.
"Go open a baseball encyclopedia, or baseball-reference.com," said one AL executive. "Look up Goose Gossage and Sparky Lyle. And you'll see that the concept of a relief ace who throws 70 games and 120 innings is not new. It's something that's been done before to great effect.
"When I hear you can't have a guy throw 40 pitches every couple of days, my reaction is, 'Why not?'" the exec went on. "We have amazing pitchers in this game who are only throwing 60 innings in a year. I don't know how 60 innings would be considered overworking anybody. ... I don't see why you can't ask a guy to go two innings Tuesday and two innings Thursday."
That said, while the game is constantly evolving, that evolution turns slowly. I don’t think you’ll see significant changes in bullpen strategy, either in the postseason or the regular season. It’s important to realize that Francona was in a unique situation. Injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar had depleted his rotation, and then Bauer cut his finger in the middle of the postseason, so in going with a three-man rotation (except for one Ryan Merritt start in the ALCS), Francona had to have quick hooks and rely more on Miller and closer Cody Allen.
Plus, Miller is really good. It’s a little easier to trust a guy to throw two-plus innings when he has fanned 326 batters in 198 1/3 innings the past three seasons. There are few pitchers of Miller’s ability out there -- for one inning, let alone two. The way the postseason played out for the Indians also worked out perfectly for Francona. Miller had to pitch back-to-back days just twice and had at least three days of rest in five of his 10 appearances.
It’s worth noting that Jansen and Chapman are also elite relievers -- we’re talking about three of the four most dominant relievers in the game (Baltimore’s Zach Britton being the fourth).
Even then, however, Miller and Chapman -- perhaps as a result of all their previous work in the postseason -- faltered in Game 7 of the World Series. Miller gave up four hits and two runs, including a home run to David Ross, in his 2 1/3 innings. Chapman gave up the game-tying, two-run home run to Rajai Davis in the eighth inning. That was his third blown save of the postseason, as he allowed five of his 11 inherited runners to score.
Those results and Chapman’s inconsistency in the postseason point to the bigger picture: One reason relievers are so dominant these days -- there were 51 relievers who pitched at least 50 innings with an ERA below 3.00 in 2016 and 61 in 2015 -- is precisely because they do pitch so few innings. Would Britton go 47-for-47 in save opportunities if he pitched 110 innings instead of 67? Would Chapman average 14 K’s per nine innings if he had to pitch two innings on Tuesday, two innings on Thursday and then again on Saturday? It may be smarter for managers to shift more innings to their best relievers and away from their sixth and seventh guys, but they do so at the risk of the best guys not being as effective.
There’s another thing to consider. Relievers are already volatile. For example, just two seasons ago, your top four relievers in saves were Fernando Rodney, Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland and Trevor Rosenthal. Huston Street and Jonathan Papelbon also ranked in the top 10. Those six averaged 16 saves in 2016, three had ERAs over 4.00, and Holland missed the season due to injury. Your save leaders from 2013 included Jim Johnson, Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour and Sergio Romo. In 2012: Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Joel Hanrahan. Closers come and go: Only five teams had the same reliever lead the team in saves in 2014 and 2016. If you start pitching these guys more innings, they may become even less predictable year to year or burn out even more quickly.
I think we will see some minor changes as a result of the 2016 postseason. A few more four- and five-out saves. Maybe longer stints from your best reliever when playing a big rival. Maybe we’ll start seeing some of those three-run leads in the ninth handed over to another reliever. I don’t think we’re going to start seeing closers in the seventh inning, and I don’t think we’re going to start seeing the return of the 100-inning reliever. It is possible that the long-term trend to maximize leverage could mean your best reliever pitches 50 games and 80 innings instead of 65 games and 65 innings. In the short-term, however, the possible addition of a 26th man to rosters could mean even more relievers to spread the work to.
In the postseason, I think the trend of shorter stints for starters may continue, although keep in mind that eight of the 29 starts this postseason of fewer than five innings belonged to the Indians and their somewhat unusual circumstance. Still, the overriding lesson that Francona understood is to manage with urgency in the postseason. Game 1 of the division series is extremely important. Worry about Game 2 the next day. If a starter is rolling along -- like Merritt in his ALCS start -- don’t assume it will continue.
And if you’re lucky enough to have Andrew Miller: Bring him in.