Forty years ago on this date, the New York Yankees signed Reggie Jackson to a contract that shook the baseball world: five years and the unheard of total of $3 million. Yoenis Cespedes will make that before the end of April.
Projections had Cespedes, the biggest prize in this year's weak free-agent crop, signing something like a five-year, $125 million deal. His reported deal Tuesday to return to the New York Mets is for four years and $110 million, so it's one fewer year at a higher annual average value. In fact, his $27.5 million average annual value ties Alex Rodriguez for the second highest ever for a position player. Yes, the money is insane. It also points to why the players and owners will almost assuredly come to a new labor deal, either right at the Dec. 1 deadline or soon thereafter: Both sides are rolling in cash right now. Competitive balance is as good as it's ever been. Why risk all that?
As Adam Rubin writes, the Mets had to bring back the biggest bat in their lineup:
Make no mistake: The Mets had to bring Cespedes back in order to remain competitive with the Washington Nationals in the National League East -- and not just because the Nats were one of Cespedes' other reported suitors.
Yes, the Mets have a vaunted pitching staff, at least when healthy. But it was not until Cespedes joined the Mets at the non-waiver trade deadline in 2015 that the team truly ascended.
In 2015, the Mets became the first team in major league history to reach the World Series after ranking last in MLB in runs scored on July 31. And in Cespedes' one and a half seasons in New York, the Mets own a 106-74 record with him in the starting lineup and an 18-23 record without him.
As ecstatic as Mets fans undoubtedly are right now, I'm going to rain on the parade a bit. Cespedes is a very nice player; he is not a superstar. Cespedes may have returned to the Mets simply because the money is still enough to buy a good steak in Manhattan and he enjoyed playing in Queens, but also because the interest in him may not have been as intense as anticipated.
Cespedes has certainly improved as a hitter since his 2013-14 seasons with the A's and Red Sox, when he had an OBP of .298. He had a monster 57-game stint with Mets in 2015 after coming over from the Tigers and was still effective in 2016, although not quite as dominant, finishing with a .280/.354/.530 line. He missed 30 games, cutting into his overall WAR, and ranked just 23rd among outfielders in Baseball-Reference WAR at 2.9, tied with Stephen Piscotty and Lorenzo Cain. FanGraphs evaluated him similarly, 24th among outfielders at 3.2 WAR.
Does that sound like a superstar to you? Cespedes is getting superstar money. He'll be 31 and there also are some concerns about how he'll age and whether he'll remain focused after getting long-term financial security. Just remember that his 2015 season still stands as the big outlier in his peak value (6.3 WAR, 2.4 more than his second-best season).
Further complicating matters is that the Mets now have four corner outfielders in Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto, with the light-hitting Juan Lagares the one guy who can play center. Granderson ended up playing a lot of center field after the Mets acquired Bruce at last year's deadline, but he's entering his age-36 season. The last player who was 35 or older to play even 100 games in center was Mike Cameron back in 2009.
So I'm a little skeptical that Cespedes-Granderson-Bruce is the regular outfield alignment we'll see, especially since Bruce's defensive metrics have been well below average the past two seasons. Even while hitting 33 home runs in 2016, Bruce's WAR was just 0.6. Considering the only period in which he's hit consistently over the past three seasons was the first half of 2016, I would look for the Mets to try and dump Bruce's $13 million contract (he's a free agent after 2017). Bruce was insurance in case Cespedes left but now seems like unnecessary depth.
All that said, Cespedes is an exciting, dynamic force in the middle of the Mets' lineup. With Neil Walker back in the fold after accepting the club's qualifying offer, the lineup looks something like this:
3B Jose Reyes
RF Curtis Granderson
LF Yoenis Cespedes
2B Neil Walker
1B Lucas Duda
C Travis d'Arnaud/Rene Rivera
CF Juan Lagares
Off the bench, you have Conforto, Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Brandon Nimmo and maybe even David Wright. The Mets finished tied for just 11th in the National League in runs in 2016, but Granderson and Cabrera were the only two regulars to play 140 games. Assuming the club enjoys better health in 2017, the lineup should be improved. And if the Mets win the NL East with Cespedes going 30-100, nobody will care how much he gets paid.