Right when you think you’ve seen everything in baseball: Justin Smoak, All-Star starter.
Not that Smoak isn’t having a good season. The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman entered Sunday hitting .300/.368/.592 with 22 home runs and 52 RBIs, leading American League first basemen in OPS and trailing only Logan Morrison in WAR.
Still, he has to be one of the least likely All-Star starters in recent memory. Even when the mostly forgettable Kosuke Fukudome of the Chicago Cubs started for the National League in 2008, it wasn’t a huge shock. It was his first season after coming over from Japan, where he had been a big star, and in the days before there were limitations on the number of times you could vote, his support in Japan presumably pushed him over the top.
Smoak, however, entered 2017 with 1.5 career WAR over seven seasons. He already has set a career high in home runs and will soon surpass his best of 59 RBIs. He has never hit higher than .238. Frankly, it was a bit of a surprise the Blue Jays even brought him back.
Yet here he is. With Miguel Cabrera having a bad season, it was a weak crop of AL first basemen. The other top candidates were Morrison and Yonder Alonso, two guys also playing way above their career norms. I guess the fans have spoken -- what you’ve done in the past doesn’t matter -- although ask yourself: If you were actually paying $150 to watch the game in Miami, would you rather see Justin Smoak or Miguel Cabrera?
Anyway, the National League has a similar starter in Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart, who beat out Corey Seager in the voting. Cozart is hitting .323/.405/.561 and edges Seager in WAR 3.0 to 2.9; like Smoak, he has had the best three months of his life. That voting was maybe even more surprising, since the guy from the small market beat out the reigning rookie of the year from the big market.
All told, there are six first-time starters (all first-time All-Stars, as well) in the AL starting nine, including New York Yankees rookie right fielder Aaron Judge. Houston Astros teammates Carlos Correa and George Springer also earned their first All-Star trips. Cozart is the only first-time All-Star among the NL starters, although there will be six first-time starters.
Which league has the best lineup? Let’s compare. We’ll start with the AL, using stats entering Sunday's games. Mike Trout was voted in as the starter, but he’s still on the disabled list and remains doubtful for the game. Let’s sub in Mookie Betts for him. The chart lists park-adjusted weighted runs created and the player’s rank among all MLB hitters in that category.
Going from Trout to Betts is a big loss for the AL, as Trout ranks No. 1 among all players with at least 200 plate appearances. While I criticized Smoak, he is tied with Springer for No. 10 in the majors. Maybe it’s a fluke three months, but it has been a great three months.
For the NL, I’ll put Paul Goldschmidt in at DH. He leads the NL in WAR and should have been voted in as the starter at first base over Ryan Zimmerman (although Zimmerman has been awesome at the plate, as well).
The National League would appear to have a little more firepower, with four starters in the top 10 over wRC+. (Besides Goldschmidt, the other top-10 hitters not voted in as starters were No. 3 Justin Turner, No. 5 Marwin Gonzalez and Michael Conforto, who is tied for the 10th.)
The relative weak spots are the two Colorado Rockies, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They rank 21st (Blackmon) and 43rd (Arenado) in the non-park-factored wOBA. Blackmon especially has a huge home/road split, with a 1.264 OPS at Coors Field and .716 on the road.
If we average the wRC+ and rank columns for each league, they end up being pretty close:
American League: 146.9 and 25.3
National League: 143.1 and 26.9
If we add up the WAR -- which includes defense -- the AL gains a significant edge, 29.2 to 24.9. And that’s without the best player in the game.
