It should have been Jose Fernandez out there on his 25th birthday, trying to close out a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals, maybe even pitching what could have been a surprising Miami Marlins team into first place.
Instead, Fernandez's family and baby daughter visited Marlins Park for the first time since his death. Teammates left birthday wishes on Twitter. Miami is nowhere near a playoff spot. And his good friend Gio Gonzalez was in the spotlight, back in the city where he grew up and graduated high school, taking a no-hitter into the bottom of the ninth inning. Gonzalez didn't get it -- Dee Gordon led off the inning with a line-drive single into center field -- but it was a memorable night for the veteran lefty.
"Tonight was more of an emotional night, a special night," Gonzalez said during the televised postgame interview. "I got to see the Fernandez family, and what a night."
Gonzalez, who attended Fernandez's funeral last September, was at a comfortable 103 pitches entering the ninth, but Gordon offered at a 1-1 curveball that was just off the plate to break up the no-hitter. Pretty good pitch for Gonzalez, bad result. With a slim 1-0 lead, Dusty Baker turned to the bullpen and Sean Doolittle closed it out, getting Giancarlo Stanton to hit into a double play for the first two outs.
Gonzalez became the third pitcher to lose a no-hitter in the ninth inning this season, joining Kyle Freeland and Mike Foltynewicz, while the Marlins' Edinson Volquez has the one no-hitter.
Anybody who doesn't luv watching REGULAR SEASON Nats games in '17, whether they score 23 or win 1-0 w Gio's near no-no, just doesn't get it.
— Thomas Boswell (@ThomasBoswellWP) August 1, 2017
Gonzalez is having a quietly terrific season, improving to 9-5 and lowering his ERA to 2.66 -- the third-best in the National League. He has long relied on that big sweeping curveball, and there's nothing in his peripherals that suggest he's doing anything different as his strikeout and walk rates are right at his career norms.
The two outlier numbers are his .245 BABIP, well below his career mark of .297, and an 85.1 percent strand rate that is second among qualified starters to Clayton Kershaw. So he has probably been a little fortunate, but he has also been good and he's slotted in comfortably as the team's No. 2 or 3 starter in the postseason, depending on where Stephen Strasburg's health sits once October rolls around.
I was thinking of this while watching the final innings of this game as well: Nobody considers Gonzalez a star, though he has made two All-Star teams, but his career would be a terrific outcome for any of the prospects traded on deadline day or earlier in the month.
He has 111 career wins and 25.0 WAR so far in his career. That's a better career than 99 percent of major leaguers. This will be his eighth straight season of 27-plus starts and his fourth of 4-plus WAR, a reminder that for pitchers it's often simply about finding a way to stay healthy.
Baseball America had a study that looked at all prospects traded in July from 2003 to 2012 and found that fewer than 20 percent of them pan out -- with a low threshold of two seasons in the majors and a positive career WAR. Obviously, even fewer reach the heights Gonzalez has obtained. That's a reminder that A's fans or Rangers fans should remain cautiously optimistic about the returns for Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish.
Most of us can't even hit .485 in slow-pitch softball. The Astros pounded the Rays -- a rare bad start by Alex Cobb, who has mostly been lights out of late -- as Jose Altuve went 2-for-4 to raise his season average to .368 while finishing July with a .485 average. The highest averages in a month during the expansion era (since 1961), minimum 75 at-bats:
Todd Helton, Rockies, May 2000: .512
Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers, June 2004: .500
George Brett, Royals, July 1980: .494
Rod Carew, Twins, June 1977: .486
Jose Altuve, Astros, July 2017: .485
Wade Boggs, Red Sox, June 1987: .485
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge hit his MLB-leading 34th home run and drew two walks as the Yankees beat Michael Fulmer and the Tigers. MVP race update:
Altuve: .368/.430/.577, 15 HRs, 61 RBIs, 74 runs, 6.0 WAR
Judge: .303/.429/.639, 34 HRs, 75 RBIs, 83 runs, 5.2 WAR
The WAR totals are entering Monday. Judge hit .224/.350/.447 with six home runs in July, in part because his strikeout rate rose from 29 percent in May and June to 38 percent. His BABIP also regressed from over .450 those two months to .310. There's nothing alarming here, just a young player going through normal swings of productivity, especially one with a high strikeout rate.
One knock on Judge was that he's hitting .206 in the ninth inning with one home run and .234 in the eighth inning with two home runs. First of all, we're talking about 86 plate appearances. A better gauge of his late-game productivity is "late and close," and Judge is hitting .271/.442/.492 in those situations. Altuve, in fewer plate appearances, has been lethal, hitting .487/.565/.821 (46 PAs). Judge has been fine, but Altuve has raised his game so far in those clutch at-bats. Something to keep in mind as we analyze the MVP race later in the season.
So this was cool. As Adrian Beltre stepped up for his first at-bat, Felix Hernandez gave his friend and former teammate a hug of congratulations for Beltre's 3,000th hit:
Real recognize real. 🐐 👑 pic.twitter.com/BgmEG7NsEl
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) August 1, 2017
Hernandez struggled early as the Rangers took a 4-0 lead after two innings, but the Mariners rallied for a 6-4 victory as Robinson Cano drove in two runs in the ninth to help Seattle climb over .500. David Phelps got five outs, all on strikeouts, and Edwin Diaz closed it out, firing a 100 mph fastball past Rougned Odor for his 20th save. This game kicks off a stretch in which the Mariners will play 21 of 28 games on the road.
Who needs to make a deal when you have Rafael Devers? The 20-year-old third baseman went 4-for-4 for the Red Sox. Fun list here:
Rafael Devers is the 5th player in Red Sox history with a 4-hit game before turning 21 (via @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/mxHfbql4Ia
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 1, 2017
In other news of top prospects/young players, Yoan Moncada had a nasty collision with Willy Garcia and both players left the game. Moncada is day to day with a knee contusion, and Garcia will be re-evaluated Tuesday after suffering a head contusion. Finally, the Mets announced shortstop Amed Rosario will be called up and make his major league debut Tuesday at Colorado.
Trade deadline wrap-up. I wrote about my winners and losers here; Bradford Doolittle breaks down the big Yu Darvish trade for the Dodgers; and Andrew Marchand says getting Sonny Gray means the Yankees are the Yankees again.