The MVP case for Giancarlo Stanton, the focus of our latest edition of Awards Watch, is not a hard one to make.
Stanton has surged to the top of the league’s wins above replacement (WAR) leaderboard, just ahead of Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt, and now, the case for him winning is even stronger than it was just a month ago.
At the All-Star break, Stanton ranked 17th in the NL, with 2.7 WAR, 1.5 wins behind Goldschmidt. Stanton has a 3.6 WAR since the break.
Stanton has barreled through everyone in his path with this ridiculous tear. His 18 home runs in August tied for the second most in a calendar month in major league history. Since July 5, Stanton has 30 home runs. Nelson Cruz ranks second with 17. Stanton had a slash line of .330/.434/.881 in that span.
Stanton’s batting-stance changes are well documented at this point, as he went to a closed stance that gives him a better look at the pitcher, especially right-handers.
In 2015 and 2016, Stanton struggled against righties, who would come inside with fastballs to move him further off the plate, then go away with breaking balls that Stanton couldn’t reach.
Stanton went through similar struggles this April, but whatever he did in May worked perfectly. The difference in his numbers against those pitchers was stark, as you can see in the chart on the right.
But as my colleague Doug Clawson noted, he’s crushing inside pitches too. Twenty of Stanton's 25 home runs since the All-Star break have been on pitches on the inner half. Nobody else has more than eight home runs on pitches on the inner half during that span.
He’s getting important hits
Yes, Stanton’s offensive numbers have been incredible. But is he getting the big hits?
Stanton ranks first in the NL and second in the majors in win probability added, a stat that measures the change in win probability for every plate appearance for every player. The only player better in the majors this season is Mike Trout.
And it's important to note that it doesn’t have to be late in a game for Stanton to have a big impact on it. Stanton’s slash line in the first six innings of games is .313/.407/.725, with 39 home runs. There's value anytime you hit like that, regardless of the inning.
It’s not just the offense, though
There’s more to Stanton’s success than just his hitting; his defense is an underrated aspect of his game.
Stanton was at minus-1 defensive runs saved before the All-Star break but has recorded six defensive runs saved since then. That can be attributed to greater success at catching balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark.
His range rating on those balls was tied for the best in the major leagues in that span.
One of the best examples of Stanton’s defensive value is this catch to rob Cameron Perkins on Aug. 22, one of a handful he made in a series against the Phillies.
Can anyone catch him?
Who are the hitters with the best chance of overtaking Stanton for MVP? We’re inclined to rule out players on non-contenders (Votto), because it’s going to be hard for them to make a bigger impression than Stanton has.
The Dodgers have four position players with at least 4 WAR (Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger), the most of any team. But they don’t have anyone who rises to Stanton’s level. That the Dodgers have so many good players makes it hard to argue that any one of them should win it.
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have good numbers for the Cubs (they rank ninth and 12th in the NL in OPS, respectively), but their numbers are dwarfed by Stanton’s.
Bryce Harper’s injury basically ends his chances, and though Anthony Rendon is highly deserving, he’s gone through a cool-down period, hitting .264/.355/.396 since Aug. 2.
The biggest challenger might be Goldschmidt, who has been consistently great throughout the season (his 1.035 OPS trails only Stanton and Votto, who are each at 1.039) and is a terrific defender and baserunner. But Goldschmidt lacks Stanton's star power and the ability to hit the ball out of the park at will. Likewise, Nolan Arenado’s numbers are fantastic (he could lead the NL in RBIs for a third straight year and again leads all third basemen in defensive runs saved), but he's not Stanton.
The pick:
1. Stanton
2. Goldschmidt
3. Arenado
AL MVP
The best thing Jose Altuve has going for him is that he hasn’t let up. The slumps have been brief and the success has been substantial. August hasn’t been a great month for Altuve, but he still had six home runs, seven stolen bases and a slash line of .304/.345/.520.
Aaron Judge could still make one good push to try to win it (especially if he can carry the Yankees to the AL East title), but given his struggles since the All-Star break, that doesn’t look likely.
In fact, Altuve’s biggest challenger might be Trout, who now ranks third in the AL in WAR despite having missed significant time due to a thumb injury. What can Trout do to win it?
A month like his April slash line of .364/.443/.707 could do the trick, though almost surely it would take the Angels making the postseason for him to have any chance. Those chances just got a little better with some true lineup protection for Trout in Thursday's acquisition of slugger Justin Upton.
The pick:
1. Altuve
2. Trout
3. Judge
NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw’s return makes the NL Cy Young race an interesting one again, but how Kershaw returns from his back injury is the great unknown. Can he go deep into games? And will the Dodgers let him go deep into games? Those questions could be the determining factors.
In the meantime, it still feels like Max Scherzer’s award. He’s trying to finish off the best season of his career, one in which he’s pitched to a lower ERA (2.21) and higher rate of strikeouts per nine innings (12.4) than ever before.
The pick
1. Scherzer
2. Kershaw
3. Gio Gonzalez
AL Cy Young
Since returning from the disabled list on June 1, Corey Kluber is 10-2 with a 1.90 ERA, .167 opponents' batting average and 174 strikeouts in 123⅓ innings. He may have passed Chris Sale as the favorite, though Sale is still within striking distance. Kluber has put to rest the idea that a heavy postseason workload would have an impact on his 2017 performance, though it likely helped considerably that a back injury necessitated a month-long absence.
As my colleague John Fisher pointed out, Kluber should give a nice gift to his Indians teammates if he wins the award, for twice crushing Sale.
Sale has a 14.63 ERA against the Indians (13 earned runs in eight innings) and a 2.14 ERA against all other teams.
The pick
1. Kluber
2. Sale