If the hot stove season is baseball’s version of “Let’s Make a Deal,” then suddenly the big question for the Washington Nationals when it comes to filling their need at closer is: What’s behind Door No. 5?
In case you’re wondering, Mark Melancon was behind Door No. 1, but the former Nat signed with San Francisco on Monday of last week for four years and $62 million. It was the largest deal ever given to a reliever -- until the guy behind Door No. 2 (Aroldis Chapman) inked a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees. Lurking behind Doors No. 3 and 4 -- in no particular order -- were former Royals closer Wade Davis (traded to the Cubs on Wednesday) and free agent Kenley Jansen, who earlier Monday agreed to a five-year, $80 million pact with his old Dodgers squad. So where does leave the Nationals? Staring blankly at Door No. 5. What’s behind it is anybody’s guess.
If GM Mike Rizzo decides to go the trade route, there are several options available. David Robertson of the White Sox, Alex Colome of the Rays and Greg Holland of the Royals are all possibilities. The good news is, none of them is the second coming of Andrew Miller, which is to say that none of them would break the Nationals' prospect bank. The bad news, there’s a reason that none of them would crush the coffer -- namely, they all have warts.
Robertson had control issues last year (1.36 WHIP) and has more blown saves the past two seasons (14) than any AL pitcher. Colome was pretty darned good in Tampa but is green, with only one season of closing experience on his resume. Holland used to be dominant but hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of 2015. In other words, you could hardly blame Rizzo for not wanting to delve into the trade market. Not to mention that the Nats just gave up three top pitching prospects to land outfielder Adam Eaton, so it’s not like there’s whole lot left in the stash. So what’s the alternative? Glad you asked.
If the Nats decide to hire a closer from within -- Door No. 6, I suppose -- they’ve got choices there too. Blake Treinen probably makes the most sense. Thanks to a power sinker that approaches triple digits, the 28-year-old reliever is essentially the NL’s right-handed version of Zach Britton. In fact, Treinen’s 66 percent ground ball rate last season was second best in the majors behind Britton. He’s also figured out how to get lefties out, posting a .221 BAA vs. lefties that was actually better than his mark against righties (.225). So there’s that. Shawn Kelley, who tallied seven saves last year and racked up 12.4 Ks per nine innings, could work too. Then there’s Koda Glover, the 23-year-old wild card who had eight minor league saves last year, showed flashes after his call-up, and looks and sounds like he’s straight out of Central Casting to replace Charlie Sheen if they ever decide to do a reboot of the original "Major League."
But much like the guys behind Door No. 5, when it comes to the dudes behind Door No. 6, there are flaws abound. Treinen’s never done it before, so it remains to be seen whether he has closer DNA. Shawn Kelley had trouble keeping the ball in the park to the tune of a 4 percent home run rate, the eighth highest among NL relievers (min. 50 innings pitched). And Glover has a five-plus ERA in all of 19 2/3 career innings.
Gulp.
So where does that leave the Nationals? Well, they’re no stranger to closer issues. In 2012 and 2014, they got bounced from the NLDS thanks largely to heartbreaking, late-game meltdowns by the back end of the bullpen. In 2015, they went big and acquired Jonathan Papelbon, but that didn’t work out so well either. Last season, they traded for Melancon at the deadline, and although he was solid as advertised, they still got jacked up by the Dodgers in the division series.
Heading into 2017, their roster says they’re the presumptive favorites to repeat as NL East champs. But for that to happen, and more importantly for them to go deep into the playoffs, they’ll need a guy that can consistently close the door. But first they’ll need to open the door. Only time will tell which door that is.