WASHINGTON -- Losing Trea Turner isn’t as big a deal as you might think.
Sure, Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic leadoff men. Sure, he leads the majors in steals and has swiped more bags in June (22) than any player has swiped in any month this millennium with the exception of Jose Reyes (he had 23 SBs in August 2007). Sure, he’s been better than advertised at shortstop, a more-than-capable defensive replacement for dear departed Danny Espinosa. Despite all that, the Washington Nationals will be OK.
We don’t yet know how long Turner -- who fractured his right wrist in the Nationals' come-from-ahead 5-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday -- is expected to be out, but we do know that Braves slugger Freddie Freeman suffered the same injury in exactly the same way May 17. Although Freeman's expected timetable was 10 weeks, he’s slated to begin a rehab assignment this weekend, which puts him at about six weeks out from the injury. It’s unclear exactly how long the rehab stint will take, but if it lasts a couple of weeks, that means Freeman will have missed about two months. So for the sake of argument and analysis, let’s say Turner misses a couple months.
Does that suck? Absolutely. In fact, Turner said as much after his X-rays came back positive: “It sucks.” It sucks because the Nats were already down one really good leadoff man due to the season-ending knee injury Adam Eaton sustained April 28. It sucks because they’re also missing solid on-base man Jayson Werth, who’s been out four weeks after fouling a ball off his foot. It sucks because Turner had the look of a 70- or 80-steal guy and because his at-bats and thievery have become must-see theater. But believe it or not, the Nats will be just fine.
That’s not to say they won’t miss Turner, just as they missed him earlier this season when he hit the shelf with a strained hamstring. In 66 games with him in the starting lineup, they’re averaging 5.8 runs per game. In 13 games without him, they’re averaging 5.1 per contest. But guess what? That 5.1 is still better than every other National League team not named the Diamondbacks or Dodgers. No matter who manager Dusty Baker uses atop his lineup for the next couple months (it'll probably be a mix of Wilmer Difo, Brian Goodwin and maybe some Michael Taylor), they won’t be as productive as Turner. But that’s OK, because the Nats' bats are absolutely stacked.
In case you haven’t checked lately, the middle of the Nats lineup features a supersized Murderers' Row that would make the ’27 Yankees jealous. From the 3-hole to the 6-hole, all four hitters -- Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon -- are batting .298 or better. Each has at least 14 homers. All four rank inside the NL’s top eight in OPS. In other words, Washington will still score more than its fair share of runs.
OK, so maybe the Nationals will lose a little ground in the standings. But given how large their lead is currently (9½ games over the Braves), and given how lackluster the rest of the NL Least is, and given how dominant the top of their starting rotation has been, there’s no reason to believe the Nats won’t be able to still have a comfy lead by the time Turner returns. A tag team of Difo and veteran Stephen Drew at shortstop for a third of the season certainly isn’t the way Baker drew it up, but it should be enough to get by, such that general manager Mike Rizzo won’t have to swing a deal for a middle infielder. After all, Rizzo has his hands full trying to figure out how to fix Washington’s beleaguered bullpen.
Speaking of the pen, the story Thursday in D.C. -- until the Turner news dropped -- was that the bullpen did it again. That Blake Treinen allowed three runs in the top of the ninth, turning a 4-2 lead into a 5-4 loss. It was the sixth time this season that Washington lost a game it was leading after eight innings. That’s the most in the majors, and two more times than all of last season. That’s the dumpster fire that needs extinguishing. That’s the problem that, if it’s not addressed sometime between now and the trade deadline, is most likely to cause another early playoff exit.
The Nationals can survive without Trea Turner, but they can’t survive without fixing the bullpen.