Here is our weekly look at how the NFL and college football betting markets are shaping up leading into the weekend.
For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. The betting percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered in advance of the previous week's games. Most numbers were reopened Sunday night.
NFL market watch
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (Thursday)
Last week's look-ahead line: Colts -14, 44
Sunday: Colts -10.5, 46.5
Thursday: Colts -10.5, 46
Spread action: 68% of the bets and 78% of the money wagered is on the Jets.
Total action: 62% of the bets and 72% of the money wagered is on the over.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Last week's look-ahead line: Bengals -3, 45
Sunday: Bengals -2.5, 45.5
Thursday: Bengals -2.5, 47
Spread action: 88% of the bets are on the Bengals, but 68% of the money wagered is on the Browns.
Total action: 72% of the bets and 96% of the money wagered is on the over.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Last week's look-ahead line: Saints -5.5, 45.5
Sunday: Saints -5, 44
Thursday: Saints -6, 42.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 71% of the money wagered is on the Saints.
Total action: 55% of the bets are on the over, but 59% of the money wagered is on the under.
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Last week's look-ahead line: Patriots -2.5, 43.5
Sunday: Patriots -3, 43.5
Thursday: Patriots -3.5, 41
Spread action: 88% of the bets and 93% of the money wagered is on the Patriots.
Total action: 71% of the bets are on the over, but 67% of the money wagered is on the under.
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Last week's look-ahead line: Cowboys -7.5, 49
Sunday: Cowboys -7.5, 49
Thursday: Cowboys -9. 49.5
Spread action: 72% of the bets and 77% of the money wagered is on the Cowboys.
Total action: 73% of the bets and 86% of the money wagered is on the under.
Note: The Cowboys have covered the spread in their first seven games. If they cover against the Broncos on Sunday, they would become the first team to start 8-0 ATS since the 2007 Patriots.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week's look-ahead line: Bills -10.5, 50.5
Sunday: Bills -13.5, 48.5
Thursday: Bills -15, 48.5
Spread action: 92% of the bets and 91% of the money wagered is on the Bills.
Total action: 72% of the bets and 96% of the money wagered is on the over.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants
Last week's look-ahead line: Raiders -3, 47.5
Sunday: Raiders -3, 47.5
Thursday: Raiders -3, 46
Spread action: 90% of the bets and 77% of the money wagered is on the Raiders.
Total action: 51% of the bets are on the over, but 62% of the money wagered is on the under.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Last week's look-ahead line: Dolphins -7, 45
Sunday: Dolphins -7, 46
Thursday: Dolphins -6.5, 46
Spread action: 57% of the bets and 80% of the money wagered is on the Texans.
Total action: 63% of the bets are on the under, but 75% of the money wagered is on the over.
Note: Winds of around 14 mph were in midweek forecasts for Miami.
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens
Last week's look-ahead line: Ravens -6, 50
Sunday: Ravens -6, 50
Thursday: Ravens -6, 49.5
Spread action: 83% of the bets and 81% of the money wagered is on the Ravens.
Total action: 56% of the bets and 93% of the money wagered is on the over.
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Last week's look-ahead line: Chargers -3, 50
Sunday: Chargers -3, 50.5
Thursday: Chargers -1.5, 50
Spread action: 87% of the bets and 84% of the money wagered is on the Chargers.
Total action: 57% of the bets and 55% of the money wagered is on the Chargers.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Last week's look-ahead line: Cardinals -3, 47
Sunday: Cardinals -2.5, 47
Thursday: Cardinals -1, 45
Spread action: 80% of the bets and 75% of the money wagered is on the Cardinals.
Total action: 66% of the bets are on the over, but 81% of the money wagered is on the under.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Last week's look-ahead line: Chiefs -2.5, 54
Sunday: Chiefs -2.5, 55
Thursday: Chiefs -7, 48
Spread action: 73% of the bets have been on the Packers, but 68% of the money wagered is on the Chiefs.
Total action: 53% of the bets and 79% of the money wagered is on the under.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $520,000 bet on the Chiefs -7 on Wednesday. The change from Aaron Rodgers to backup Jordan Love resulted in a seven-point adjustment to the line. The point spread got as high as Kansas City -8.5 after news of Rodgers' positive COVID-19 test. Multiple sportsbooks reported taking big bets on the Packers when the line was briefly above seven.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams
Last week's look-ahead line: Rams -4.5, 52.5
Sunday: Rams -6, 53.5
Thursday: Rams -7.5, 53.5
Spread action: 82% of the bets and 81% of the money wagered is on the Rams.
Total action: 64% of the bets and 76% of the money wagered is on the under.
Note: The Rams' odds to win the Super Bowl improved from +850 to +650 at BetRivers' sportsbooks after the trade for Von Miller. The sportsbook reported "high volume" of Rams bets all week across all markets. The Titans will be without running back Derrick Henry, who has been placed on injured reserve with a foot injury.
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday)
Last week's look-ahead line: Steelers -5, 40.5
Sunday: Steelers -6.5, 40
Thursday: Steelers -6.5, 40
Spread action: 57% of the bets are on the Steelers, but 65% of the money wagered is on the Bears.
Total action: 57% of the bets are on the over, but 51% of the money wagered is on the under.
An oddsmaker's approach
DeckPrism is a Las Vegas-based odds provider, focused on live, in-game odds. The company, spearheaded by wise-guy founders Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow, provides live odds feeds to sportsbooks. They are sharing their oddsmaking approach with ESPN occasionally during football season.
This week, Davidow breaks down his thinking when a quarterback gets hurt during a game, like Saints' QB Jameis Winston against the Buccaneers on Sunday.
"When a QB gets hurt there's two things we ask ourselves," Davidow said. "What are the chances the quarterback will return?"
Davidow jokes about fancying himself a "TV doctor" and tries to assess the severity of injuries. After seeing Winston get pulled down awkwardly from behind, twisting his knee, Davidow estimated that the Saints' QB had only a 20 percent chance of returning.
Next, Davidow quickly gauged the difference between Winston and backup Trevor Siemian. He felt that Winston is better than Siemian, but not by that much.
"However, what is very important when it comes to a quarterback injury is preparation," Davidow said. "Siemian coming in cold after a week of mental reps is not the same as Siemian practicing all week with a game plan that plays to his strengths. So, we moved the Saints' offense down a decent bit."
Davidow believed that bettors and other oddsmakers would overestimate the impact of a cold Siemian coming off the bench, at least compared to DeckPrism's odds.
"Sure enough, almost every bet we saw the rest of the game was on Tampa," he said.
College football market watch
Notable lines and movement via Circa Sports, one of first sportsbooks in the U.S. to hang a full slate of point spreads and totals each week.