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Senior Writer, ESPN FC- Mark Ogden is a senior soccer writer for ESPN.com. Read his archive here and follow him on Twitter: @MarkOgden_.
It's 13 years ago this month that the Manchester derby decided the Premier League title. Vincent Kompany's goal in a 1-0 win at the Etihad Stadium in April 2012 was a huge step towards Manchester City lifting the trophy, which they got their hands on after a mighty scare from Queens Park Rangers on the final day of the campaign.
The 2012 derby was supposed to mark the start of a new era of Manchester dominance, the two clubs fighting for top honours at home and abroad, with games at Old Trafford and the Etihad having the same pull as Real Madrid vs. Barcelona. It's not really worked out like that. Instead, Man United and Man City meet on Sunday in perhaps the most low-key derby of the last decade.
United are 13th in the table and have got one eye on next week's Europa League tie against Lyon. City, meanwhile, need points to ensure they qualify for next season's Champions League, but the title is long gone and on its way to Liverpool. Aside from the usual bragging rights, there's not much at stake at Old Trafford this weekend.
How did we get here, are there causes for optimism, and can the Manchester derby get back to being the biggest game of the year?
MANCHESTER UNITED
What's gone wrong for them?
You can separate United's problems into those off the pitch and those on it.
Off the pitch, they're paying the price for 20 years of mismanagement under owners the Glazer family. Money has been drained from United's coffers, and what has been spent has been invested poorly. It has led to serious concerns that once one of the most profitable clubs in the world could breach Profit and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) and suffer the consequences.
On the pitch, this season has been traumatic. Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his team dithered over whether to keep Erik ten Hag last summer. The Dutchman was eventually sacked in November and replaced with Ruben Amorim, who has tried to implement an entirely new playing style -- only with players that don't fit.
Amorim warned in December that "a storm will come," and that's exactly what has happened. United are on course for their lowest league finish in the Premier League era and the campaign now rests on how they fare in the Europa League. They play their quarterfinal first leg against Lyon four days after the derby.
The biggest issues affecting performances are a propensity to concede the first goal in games and a struggle to find the net at the other end. The problems scoring goals predates Amorim's arrival, but he hasn't yet been able to find a solution.
Are there reasons for optimism?
The biggest reason for hope that things may eventually start to turn around is that the Glazers aren't in charge any more. They're still majority owners; it's clear, though, that they aren't calling the shots. Ratcliffe and his new hires have made an underwhelming start to life as custodians, but there's at least a new set of eyes and the makings of a plan to move United forward.
Ultimately, the aim is to get back to the top of domestic and European football -- and that's a long road back from where they are. The people in charge -- Ratcliffe, CEO Omar Berrada and technical director Jason Wilcox -- need to make a lot of right decisions quickly, particularly in recruitment, and that's tough to do. Even with that, United have a lot of ground to make up: they kick off on Sunday 14 points behind City, and Pep Guardiola's team are nowhere near title challengers Liverpool and Arsenal.
The main reason for optimism is that this, hopefully, is rock bottom and there can be some kind of upward trajectory from here. The other option is that things are set to get even worse before they get better, and that's almost unthinkable. Another season worse than this one, and you're talking about a genuine battle against relegation. -- Dawson
MANCHESTER CITY
What's gone wrong for them?
There are many factors involved and it's subjective as to which are the most significant, but ultimately, they have all combined to leave City on course for the worst season under Pep Guardiola since 2016-17 -- and potentially the team's lowest league finish in a complete season since Sheikh Mansour's takeover of the club in Sept. 2008.
Rob Dawson says it's a "no brainer" for Manchester United fans to pick victory over Lyon in the Europa League over beating Manchester City.
Injuries to key players, most notably Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, poor recruitment dating back to the post-Treble summer of 2023 and a core of long-serving players beginning to fade have been major on-field issues, but off-pitch issues have also had an impact. In addition to the ongoing uncertainty over City's fate in the hearing into the 115 Premier League charges, there are lingering doubts over Guardiola's future until he signed a new contract last November.
Ultimately, it is on the pitch that City have fallen short, though, and that can be attributed to Guardiola and the club's recruitment team failing to act sooner to evolve the squad -- namely replacements for Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, John Stones and Kyle Walker. Re-signing Ilkay Gündogan last summer at the age of 33, a year after his free transfer move to Barcelona, was a rare example of a short-term move by City when they've previously been so good at making astute long-term signings.
Are there reasons for optimism?
Let's leave aside the outcome of the 115 charges hearing for now, because nobody knows how that will play out, but the good news for City is that Guardiola has pledged his future to the club until June 2027, Erling Haaland signed a nine-and-a-half year contract in January and mid-winter signings Omar Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez have shown signs of being good additions.
With Guardiola and Haaland at the club, City have the best the coach in the world and also the most prolific goalscorer, so both give them a huge advantage.
The structure at City is also so well-established now that their Academy continues to produce top-quality youngsters -- too many of them, including Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers, were allowed to leave to shine at other clubs -- and the likes of Nico O'Reilly, Oscar Bobb and Rico Lewis highlight the depth of home-grown talent still at the club.
But let's revert back to the 115 charges because if the verdict goes against City, it could change everything. Right now, they're locked in a battle for Champions League qualification and even a small points deduction this season would likely see them miss out on next season's competition.
If City miss out on the Champions League, it would be a significant blow to their finances, especially if they are found to have previously inflated sponsorship and also face heavy fines. City deny all charges, but if the hearing doesn't go their way, the years ahead will be extremely challenging. -- Ogden
How will we get back to this derby being the biggest game in the calendar?
To be the biggest game on the fixture list, the Manchester derby has to be the game that decides the title, and that won't happen until United get their act together.
City have had a poor season, but unless the Premier League hits them with massive sanctions, it's likely to be a blip rather than anything more significant. United's decline is far more terminal. Liverpool are going to be champions, and Arsenal have already given notice that they're planning a major spend in the summer to bridge the gap. Newcastle United will eventually unlock their financial capability, and Chelsea also have the resources to compete.
It's going to take some turnaround for United to go from bottom half of the table to contenders, and they're probably looking at a four- or five-year rebuild before they're legitimately in the conversation. The first job is to consistently qualify for the Champions League.
It would be fantastic for Manchester if the derby was deciding the title year after year, but right now, it feels like that's a long way off. -- Dawson
A harsh perspective of the Manchester derby is that it hasn't been the biggest game on the calendar since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as United manager in 2013 because the Reds have been miles away from challenging City for the biggest honours.
Between 2008 and 2013, when United were the dominant team and City the emerging force, this was the absolute number one game in England and as competitive and significant as Real Madrid vs. Barcelona, Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund, Celtic vs. Rangers. Name a great rivalry, and United vs. City was as big and meaningful as them all. It's why Ferguson called City the "noisy neighbours" -- they had been insignificant to United for decades until Sheikh Mansour's money changed everything.
So while City have their issues to address, the onus is on United to restore the box office appeal of this game. Until they start to challenge for the Premier League title again, United will be behind Liverpool and Arsenal in terms of being a threat to City, who have dominated the city's football landscape for over a decade now.
City will continue to be serious contenders for all the major honours unless they are hit incredibly hard by the Premier League. United? They are at base camp in their rebuild, and nobody can be certain it will work out, but unless they get their recruitment right and coach Ruben Amorim can revive a fallen giant, it's the blue side of Manchester that will be the chasing the biggest trophies. -- Ogden