With the NFL draft rapidly approaching, the event isn't just a big deal for football teams and fans around the country. It's a huge day for sports bettors as well.
The betting market presents plenty of opportunities for those looking to make some money -- and it's the rare sporting event where the savvy bettor can find some significant edges. This is one of the hardest events to book, making it one of the softest markets for the bettor.
Here are six storylines to look out for as you make your predictions:
1. Who will be the No. 1 overall pick?
Alabama QB Bryce Young is the overwhelming favorite to be selected No. 1 overall. The Carolina Panthers currently hold that selection for Thursday night after trading into the top spot earlier this offseason. Young originally opened up as the favorite, was surpassed by Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud last week, but then jumped back to the prohibitive odds-on favorite last week.
If you were prescient enough to fire on Young when the market was favoring Stroud, then you have to be loving your position. At this point, there likely isn't any value in betting Young, and you should find other ways to invest in the draft in the top.
2. Who will be the No. 2 player drafted?
The 2nd overall pick is where draft is really going to get fun. All of a sudden, Kentucky QB Will Levis has surged to the odds-on favorite in this market at -150. It's quite shocking considering Stroud has widely been considered the second-best QB prospect in this class for most of the pre-draft process. Something seems ... strange to me.
Right now the Houston Texans own this pick. Do they really covet Levis to be the franchise QB? I'm not sure. What seems more likely is that this market took some respected money on speculative bets that a team is going to trade into the No. 2 spot to get Levis. But what happens if the Texans stay at that spot? Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson Jr. are both +300 to be the second overall pick. I'll talk about that more in a second.
Here's how I'm approaching this. I am not betting Levis at that price. No thanks. I'm either throwing a massive flyer out there on Anthony Richardson at +3500 or passing on betting. There are way too many variables, too much smoke, and this is a player I don't deem worthy of the selection. Go big or pass at No. 2 ... which is where the draft is going to get really fun Thursday night.
3. Who will be the first defensive player drafted?
For most of the 2022 college football season, Georgia DT Jalen Carter was widely considered not only the best defensive prospect in the draft but maybe the best overall prospect regardless of position. Carter had a dominant season on tape, but his stock has taken a major hit this offseason due to significant off the field concerns.
Alabama EDGE Will Anderson Jr. moved to the -120 favorite in this market for most of the offseason, but all of a sudden another EDGE player with elite traits is making a move.
Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson is now the odds-on favorite at -150 to be the first defensive player off the board.
Anderson is the player with the production and pedigree of playing in Nick Saban's program. Wilson, however, looks like he was built in a lab for the modern game. He's 6-foot-6, 275 pounds and has arms that measure almost 36 inches. Similar to last year's No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker, these are the type of measurable that NFL defensive line coaches and coordinators drool over. At this point it seems like it's going to come down to one of these two men.
I will point out, however, that you can get Carter to be the first defensive player at +1500. Not bad for a guy who spent most of the last 365 days as the best overall prospect in the class on the field.
4. Who will be the first wide receiver drafted?
We've seen rookie wide receivers become valuable and immediate contributors at the NFL level in recent seasons. Because of that, getting a supremely gifted WR on a rookie contract is a new competitive edge that teams are trying to leverage. Is there anyone in this class capable of doing what Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson have done in recent years?
I think there's one. And it's Wilson's college teammate, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba was bothered by some nagging injuries in 2022, but if you go back to his 2021 tape -- especially the past 6 games -- you'll be blown away. The moment that sold me on Smith-Njigba's chances in the NFL came when he sat down with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson midway through last season for an interview.
Olave and Wilson were enjoying immediate success and flashed dominant talent at the NFL level as rookies and the interviewer asked the three receivers who was the best or most athletic of the bunch. Olave and Wilson quickly answered "Jaxon." He's a -260 favorite to be the first WR taken in the draft... and I don't think that's cost prohibitive at all.
Zay Flowers (+375), Quentin Johnston (+550) and Jordan Addison (+650) are the other contenders to be the first WR taken. I don't think any are a true threat to JSN, but if I had to wager on one of them it would be Johnston. He brings a much larger frame than the other three and some team may value that size and length at the position for their specific scheme.
Still, I'm pretty confident most GMs and scouts believe JSN is the best WR prospect in this class by a comfortable margin.
5. How many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round?
We know that Bryce Young is likely going to be the first name called. C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are also likely to hear their names called by Roger Goodell in the first 10 to 15 picks.
It's not inconceivable (with trades) to imagine we see the draft begin with QBs being selected with the first four picks. The number of receivers drafted in Round 1 prop is set at 4.5 and essentially comes down to Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker. His individual draft position prop is 31.5. Remember, we'll only see 31 picks in the first round this year due to the Dolphins having to forfeit a pick. So, the market is telling us it's essentially a coin flip on whether Hooker hears his name called Thursday or later.
There are plenty of reasons to like Hooker as a prospect. His last two seasons in Knoxville, he threw for 58 TDs and only 5 INT. His 2022 game against Alabama was incredible. However, Hooker -- if you hadn't heard -- is already 25 years old. He also played in an offense under Josh Heupel at Tennessee that does little to prepare a QB for NFL offenses.
Personally, I think teams are ultimately going to look at that age and offense in college and say Hooker isn't worth the extra 5th-year of control on his rookie contract. Instead of playing Total QBs Draft in First Round under 4.5 at -130, just play Hooker over 31.5 at +100 for better value.
6. What other betting storylines interest you?
Anthony Richardson is perhaps the most polarizing prospect in this draft. As far as athleticism, the first time he sets foot on an NFL field, he's going to be one of the five to 10 best athletes in the league pound-for-pound.
He's basically a cross between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. His draft prop is pick 4.5 with the over heavily juiced to -345. The under comes in at +240 ... and to me it's worth a nibble. Personally, I would take Richardson 1st overall in this draft.
Now I'm not an NFL GM, but the upside on Richardson is that of a player who can stand toe to toe with Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow. Again, I said upside, not realized. It's a gamble, but one I would be willing to make if I'm really trying to find a QB who can play the game the way the best in the universe play it in 2023.