Big picture
The third day of a Test match is known as "moving day," when teams expect the course of play to tilt one way or the other. Similarly, the third match in a five-fixture series that is locked at 1-1 has particular importance. It's the moving match, where the team that wins will take a significant step to securing the series.
So far, the chasing team has won one match and the defending team has won the other, but neither of the contests have been particularly close. While there have been pockets of pressure, this series needs a nail-biter to really set it alight. For that, both sides need to bat a little better.
South Africa's middle-order problems are age-old and this time they seem to stem from an insistence on playing as many specialists as they can at the expense of a seam-bowling allrounder. Andile Phehlukwayo, Wiaan Mulder and to a lesser degree, Sisanda Magala, are all yet to get a game as South Africa work around a six-batter, spin-bowling allrounder, three-seamer and specialist spinner XI.
They may be going with this combination with a view to the T20 World Cup and the likelihood of playing more than one spinner, but still need to find a way to lengthen the batting.
West Indies don't seem to have similarly big strategy concerns and will be particularly pleased with the way their younger bowlers, Kevin Sinclair and Obed McCoy, have integrated into the team. From a batting form perspective, Nicholas Pooran is a concern but in general, they will want to strive to strike the balance between aggressive and assertive, especially after some of their short selection let them down in the second match.
Form guide (last five completed matches, most recent first)
West Indies LWWLW
South Africa WLLLW
In the spotlight
If West Indies want a little more impetus with the bat, they may want to consider how they use Dwayne Bravo . He batted at No.9 in the second T20I, only the second time he has been in that position. No other player with more than 6000 T20 career runs has batted at No.9 or lower. But at least West Indies are getting their worth out of Bravo's experience with the ball. He bowled his full quota of four overs in the first match where he w=was the joint-most economical seamer and the joint-most successful bowler.
South Africa are looking for middle-order acceleration and there's an argument to be made for moving David Miller up the order, which could put Heinrich Klaasen under pressure to step up. Klaasen, who captained South Africa in their last two T20I series against Pakistan, has not scored more than 15 in his last four T20I innings and has only made two scores over 30 in his last 12 innings. With Kyle Verreynne waiting on the sidelines, Klaasen has to use the next few matches to make a more solid claim on his No.5 spot. One area of the game where he has made himself stand out is fielding in the deep. Klaasen took good catches on the boundary to remove Andre Fletcher and Andre Russell in the second match.
Team news
West Indies' concerns lay in the middle-order in the second match but there aren't many switches they can make there. They may call on Lendl Simmons in some capacity but may have to displace Andre Fletcher, if they do.
West Indies (probable): 1 Andre Fletcher/Lendl Simmons, 2 Evin Lewis 3 Chris Gayle, 4 Kieron Pollard (capt), 5 Nicholas Pooran (wk), 6 Jason Holder, 7 Andre Russell, 8 Dwayne Bravo, 9 Fabian Allen, 10 Kevin Sinclair, 11 Obed McCoy
South Africa stuck to the same XI for the first two matches and may not want to change anything for the third, but they need to address their limited bowling resources. They could include a sixth bowler by inserting Aiden Markram into the middle-order or could consider a seam-bowling allrounder in place of one of the quicks.
South Africa (possible): 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Reeza Hendricks, 3 Temba Bavuma (capt), 4 Rassie van der Dussen, 5 Aiden Markram/Heinrich Klaasen, 6 David Miller, 7 George Linde, 8 Kagiso Rabada, 9 Anrich Nortje, 10 Sisanda Magala/Lungi Ngidi, 11 Tabraiz Shamsi
Pitch and conditions
The same surface was used for both the first and second match in this series and Reeza Hendricks noticed a difference in terms of assistance for spinners. Hendricks said the ball turned more in the second match, where Kevin Sinclair took 2 for 23 and George Linde and Tabraiz Shamsi 3 for 35 between them, compared to only three wickets taken by spinners in the first match. In drier conditions, the outfield was a touch faster and with no rain predicted for Tuesday, it may speed up a little more and we could get higher totals.
Stats and trivia
Nicholas Pooran has only entered double figures twice in his last 10 T20I innings, and has been dismissed for two ducks. His returns since playing against India in December 2019 are: 0, 26, 1*, 14, 1, 7, 0, 8, 23 and 9.
Lungi Ngidi has conceded more than 10 runs an over in seven of his last 10 T20Is, dating back to the series against England in February 2020.
Quotes
"I don't want to take away the natural instincts of the individuals but there are also certain individuals that have been given responsibility to do certain things for the team and when you don't do it and you haven't been accountable to the team, that's when we start to have certain conversations." Kieron Pollard wants his players to play flamboyantly while keeping an eye on the bigger picture
"It would be ideal to have one of the top five batting to (over) 15 onwards. We are quite happy with the first six (overs). Definitely, the areas to improve would be in the middle period and towards the back end. We are aware of it." South Africa's focus will shift to their scoring rate in the middle-order according to opening batter Reeza Hendricks
