Big picture: Pakistan confident, Australia shorthanded
Australian soil has mostly been the site of nightmares for Pakistan over decades. But ignited by fiery bowling from quick Haris Rauf, Pakistan are on the verge of a rare series victory in Australia and go into Sunday's decider at the Optus Stadium highly confident after a nine-wicket hammering of the world champions in Adelaide.
It can, of course, be fraught with danger to feel any type of certainty over such a volatile team but Pakistan deserve to enter the third and final ODI in Perth as favourites. They probably should have already wrapped up the series if not for Pat Cummins' late heroics with the bat at the MCG.
Pakistan bounced back superbly with a masterclass in the second ODI, blowing away Australia's batters with skilful pace bowling before impressive young opener Saim Ayub treated Australia's frontline attack with disdain.
It's hard to recall a more clinical performance by a visiting team in Australia. Pakistan, whose white-ball coach Gary Kirsten quit amid upheaval just a week before the tour, can almost sniff an unlikely series victory and they will face a weakened Australia.
Cummins, Steven Smith, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Marnus Labuschagne won't play as they start preparing for the first Test against India.
Josh Inglis will become Australia's 30th ODI captain and has the tough task of galvanising a new-look team in conditions that will once again test their batting-order preaching all-out attack. There will be considerable pressure on misfiring openers Matt Short and Jake Fraser-McGurk, who have both copped criticism for their shot selections across the two games.
While the series is viewed as an entrée to the blockbuster Test summer, as underlined by modest crowds in Melbourne and Adelaide, there is added significance for both teams ahead of the upcoming Champions Trophy in Pakistan.
Form guide
Australia LWWLL (last five ODIs, most recent first)
Pakistan WLLWW
In the spotlight: Josh Inglis and Haris Rauf
Josh Inglis, 29, will make his captaincy debut for Australia and also will lead his team in the subsequent T20I series against Pakistan. Given his heavy workload with the gloves, Inglis has never taken the reins of Western Australia or Perth Scorchers in the BBL, but his leadership credentials and tactical nous are widely regarded. He did captain a very strong Prime Minister's XI in a first-class match against West Indies two years ago. The England-born Inglis started the season in sublime form and was even bandied around as a possible left-field option to solve Australia's Test opening dilemma. Inglis continued to look in good touch in the opening two games but failed to convert starts. On a ground he has long dominated in the BBL, Inglis looms as Australia's key batter as he bids to start his captaincy on a winning note.
Haris Rauf has been undoubtedly the standout performer so far this series with eight wickets to rattle Australia. He's been unplayable at times on helpful surfaces and he has created doubt over whether Australia's batters can handle rapid pace. Rauf should relish the extra bounce at the Optus Stadium, but he will need to not get carried away. He should strive to replicate the discipline he showed in Adelaide marked by a superb line and length delivery - reminiscent of Test cricket - to nick off Labuschagne. If he can finish off the series in style, then his performances across the three games will go down in Pakistan's fast-bowling lore.
Team news: Mass changes for Australia
Quick Sean Abbott, who played in the series opener, is likely to return for Australia along with experienced allrounder and Perth local Marcus Stoinis. Hometown heroes Lance Morris and Cooper Connolly will be in consideration, while quicks Spencer Johnson and Xavier Bartlett are also in the squad.
Australia (probable): 1 Matt Short, 2 Jake Fraser-McGurk, 3 Josh Inglis (capt, wk), 4 Glenn Maxwell, 5 Marcus Stoinis, 6 Aaron Hardie, 7 Cooper Connolly, 8 Sean Abbott, 9 Spencer Johnson/Xavier Bartlett, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Lance Morris
After such a comprehensive victory in Adelaide, Pakistan are set to remain unchanged.
Pakistan (probable): 1 Saim Ayub, 2 Abdullah Shafique, 3 Babar Azam, 4 Mohammad Rizwan (capt, wk), 5 Kamran Ghulam, 6 Salman Agha, 7 Irfan Khan, 8 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Haris Rauf, 11 Mohammad Hasnain
Pitch and conditions
A fast and bouncy surface is expected at a ground that aims to mimic the famous conditions at the nearby WACA. But runs usually flow at the ground in white-ball cricket as batters target the relatively short straight boundaries.
"The same three principles... pace, carry and bounce but more of a batter's wicket. Lots of runs," WA Cricket head curator Isaac McDonald told ESPNcricinfo.
It has been a relatively mild spring in Perth and pleasant temperatures in the mid-20s are expected throughout the day fixture.
Stats and trivia
Salman Agha has the fifth-highest strike rate (94.86) in Pakistan's history of batters who have faced at least 500 deliveries.
Glenn Maxwell needs 50 runs to reach 4000 in ODIs.
The teams have never played an ODI at the Optus Stadium. Pakistan held a 4-3 edge at the WACA.
Only two ODIs have been played at the Optus Stadium. In front of more than 53,000 fans, England's 12-run victory over Australia in January 2018 was the first official sports event at the Burswood ground, while South Africa beat Australia by six wickets later that year.
Quotes
"We go to Perth with a clear plan, a clear method. We're committed to the style we want to play."
Australia head coach Andrew McDonald
"The most important thing was that the team won. This performance, we planned to be positive and not think about the result."
Saim Ayub on Pakistan's win in second game
