Big picture: Rawalpindi? Rawalspindi…

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Has a team ever taken Mike Tyson's famous aphorism more literally than Ben Stokes' England? Their jutted-jaw attitude to risk and reward has served up a glut of remarkable Test matches in recent years, but in Multan last week, their fifth defeat out of seven in the subcontinent was a stone-cold knock-out.

At 73 for 0 and 211 for 2 in the first innings, England's fists were whirling - most particularly those of Ben Duckett, whose fourth Test century featured another preposterous array of sweeps. Thereafter, however, England mustered 224 for 18 wickets in the remainder of the match, as they ran smack into a pinpoint one-two combo from Pakistan's spinners, Sajid Khan and Noman Ali.

Ordinarily, forewarned would be forearmed for the rematch, especially with the series now very much on the line. But that's not how this England team roll. They see a clear logic in taking the aggressive approach in bowler-friendly conditions, to get their runs on the board before that ball with their name on it arrives. For, as England showed in going into their shell at the back end of their India tour earlier this year, dying in a hole isn't really a better option either.

And, as England famously showed at this very venue two years ago, they don't hang around if the going is good either. Pakistan's dead-deck policy was in full force back in 2022, when the visitors surged onto the offensive on an extraordinary opening day, racking up 506 for 4 in 75 overs, with centuries for Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope and Harry Brook, all four of whom will be back for a second helping in the coming days.

And that's the sort of punch in the mouth that Pakistan themselves will be hoping to avoid, as they carry their own cunning plan forward from Multan.

There could yet be a significant difference between last week's reused surface, one that had already seen five days of hard-fought Test action in England's extraordinary victory in the series opener, and this one, which has undergone an emergency de-laying in the four days between matches.

For all the work that the groundstaff have put in, with industrial fans and commercial heaters at either end creating a wind-tunnel of deconstruction, they may still struggle to open up any cracks in the surface if there were none there in the first place. England certainly aren't preparing as if it's going to a first-day minefield. Instead, they lined up before practice for a six-hitting competition, with Rehan Ahmed beating Brook in the final, and Brendon McCullum pipping Stokes for the day's longest hit.

They are, however, planning for a lack of reverse-swing on a relatively lush outfield, and have mitigated their omission of a second frontline seamer with the inclusion of Rehan - whose legspin is as likely to conjure a wicket from nowhere when the going gets tough, as was the case with the long-hop to Babar Azam that ignited his debut five-for, as run through a line-up when the going is in his favour.

Back comes Gus Atkinson too, a very handy man to be able to bring off the bench, although the absence of Brydon Carse will be a tough gap to fill. He claimed nine wickets at 24.33 in his first two Tests, which is an admirable return by the standards of any debutant. To achieve such figures in the heat and dust of Multan, however - and in the shadow of England's epochal 823 for 7 declared - was truly exceptional.

Either way, we're braced for the sort of grandstand finish that hadn't looked remotely on the cards after England had flexed their muscles in their first-Test innings win. Pakistan haven't won a series on home soil since February 2021, but there's a confidence back in their cricket now. That is best epitomised by the complementary but contrasting spinning styles of Noman and Sajid, but it's visible too in Kamran Ghulam's composed arrival in the side, and the doughty lower-order resistance that Salman Agha oversaw in their pivotal second innings in Multan. For all the flaws that remain in their set-up, they've got a puncher's chance now.

Form guide

Pakistan WLLLL (last five Tests, most recent first)
England LWLWW

In the spotlight - Kamran Ghulam and Rehan Ahmed

It was one of the great debuts in Multan, as Kamran Ghulam came in from the cold, after a decade of service on Pakistan's domestic circuit, and in place of one of their modern greats in Babar Azam. His resolute and measured century proved to be ideally paced for the conditions, as he absorbed the pressure from England's attack, hit back when the opportunity arose, and drove his side towards a first-innings total of 366 that proved decisive as the pitch began to heat up over the final three days of the match. The challenge, of course, is to back that effort up, especially if Pakistan lose the toss this time around and find themselves chasing the game on a wearing surface. But one advantage of his years in the Quaid-e-Azam trophy is that he's seen all these surfaces before, and as that debut showed, he's unfazed by the step up to Test level.

Second-season syndrome is a familiar challenge for many young cricketers, but young England spinners have it tougher than most. Rehan Ahmed was the toast of England cricket after his fairytale debut in Karachi two years ago, but he has since had to wait eight months between international opportunities, having made an underwhelming impression on the tour of India in February, with 11 wickets at 44.00 in three losing appearances. He's been mothballed by the white-ball set-up too, with Adil Rashid showing no sign of relinquishing his crown, and at the age of 20, Rehan has also had to contend with the sense that he's no longer the most acclaimed cricketer in his family, with his offspinning younger brother Farhan, 16, making a splash in the County Championship for Nottinghamshire after his impressive displays for England Under-19s. But if Rehan's Pakistan counterpart Zahid Mahmood felt like a spare part during the second Test in Multan, there's little danger that England's captain Stokes will be as unaccommodating in his captaincy. Expect him to be trusted for key breakthroughs with attacking fields, and he'll be itching to repay the faith.

Team news: Rehan returns, Pakistan unchanged

Why change a winning formula? Pakistan didn't look perfectly balanced in the second Test, with Sajid and Noman bowling more than 87% of their overs across two innings, but it worked a treat, and if the Pindi pitch behaves as intended, a repeat performance will more than suffice. Aamer Jamal's batting provided important balance in the lower-middle order, even if his six overs of seam were an afterthought, while Zahid the legspinner is returning to the scene of his debut in 2022, where he claimed the eyewatering figures of 4 for 235 in 33 overs.

Pakistan: 1 Saim Ayub, 2 Abdullah Shafique, 3 Shan Masood (capt), 4 Kamran Ghulam, 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 7 Salman Agha, 8 Aamer Jamal, 9 Sajid Khan, 10 Noman Ali, 11 Zahid Mehmood

England have rolled the dice on a surface that has clearly been tailored towards spin, and recalled Rehan as part of a three-spin attack. It's an echo of their approach in the third Test of their last tour of Pakistan, when he was again called up for the series finale and stole the show with a second-innings five-for. On the seam-bowling front, Atkinson returns after sitting out the second Test, in place of both Carse - the outstanding quick on either side in this series - and Matthew Potts, and ahead of Olly Stone, back in the country after his wedding and maybe wishing he'd gone on honeymoon after all. Stokes, who bowled just five overs after returning to the team last week following a hamstring tear, may need to up his workloads if there's any assistance off the pitch or, more likely, through the air.

England: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Ollie Pope, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Rehan Ahmed, 10 Jack Leach, 11 Shoaib Bashir.

Pitch and conditions: Rake and ruin?

Pakistan's cunning plan worked a treat in Multan, so out come the industrial fans once more, in another bold gambit to inject life into one of the flattest, most run-laden surfaces in existence. Brook was talking about the pitch having been "raked" as well, as the groundstaff attempt to exacerbate whatever rough may exist on a pitch that clearly suited England's Bazballers just fine on their last visit two years ago. The relatively lush outfield may not aid reverse-swing to the same degree as was evident in last week's second Multan Test. The more northerly venue, allied to the onset of winter, means that a few early finishes for bad light may be in prospect.

Stats and trivia

• Pakistan have won five of their previous 15 Tests in Rawalpindi, though none since 2021, when they beat South Africa by 95 runs. Since then, they've lost three out of four - including a draw against Australia - with England's win in 2022 being followed by Bangladesh's two in two for a historic series win.

• Despite twin scores of 9 and 16 in the second Test, Harry Brook still averages 101.25 in five Tests in Pakistan. If he makes another 100 runs in the third Test, in fewer than 146 balls, he'll break Ben Duckett's new record for the fastest batter to 2000 Test runs (2293 balls).

• Abdullah Shafique and Saim Ayub achieved their first double-figure opening partnership of 15 in the second Test at Multan, but their average of 4.70 after ten innings remains by a distance the lowest for any regular partnership in that role.

• Mohammed Rizwan needs 16 more runs to reach 2000 in Tests.

• Zak Crawley will be playing his 50th Test for England. His average of 32.36 isn't much to write home about, but his penchant for going big when set certainly is. He made a century on his last appearance in Rawalpindi, and needs 184 to reach 3000 in Tests.

• England have lost seven tosses in a row, dating back to the second Test against West Indies in July.

Quotes

"Adding Rehan's free spirit and desperation to change the game every time he's got the ball in his hand is a massive bonus for us this week. Legspinners have an amazing ability to break a game open… You'd rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it."
Ben Stokes, England's captain, is ready to back Rehan Ahmed despite a quiet season for Leicestershire.