The two best teams on the points table, the finalists Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings have faced each other twice this IPL. In both matches, Titans won the toss, and CSK put more than 170 on the board, riding on top-scorer Ruturaj Gaikwad. Titans chased down the first one fairly easily, and comprehensively lost the second.
Apart from the conditions in Ahmedabad (where Titans won) and Chennai (where CSK won), the big difference in the two matches was the emergence of Maheesh Theekshana and Matheesha Pathirana, both of whom didn't play the first game. Also, Hardik Pandya bowled in the first match, which allowed Titans to play Josh Little instead of Dasun Shanaka as the fourth overseas player, giving them a more complete bowling attack. Hardik bowled in Qualifier 2 and should do it in the final too.
CSK have beaten Titans only once in four attempts. It shouldn't be a big surprise because in Titans, Super Kings come up against the closest version of themselves. It is no secret that Titans' leaders - Gary Kirsten, Ashish Nehra and Hardik - are admirers of MS Dhoni from the time they were associated with him. The differences between the two sides at this point are that Titans have a more rounded attack while CSK have more batters striking and have more depth in their batting.
The tactics should become sharper after Qualifier 1. Here is how the sides might look to maximise what they have at their disposal.
How to stop Gill?
There is precious little by way of weakness in Shubman Gill's game, but CSK are good at hammering away at what is relatively less strong in someone's game. In the previous two matches, CSK got Gill out on the short ball but not before he scored 63 and 42. The shot that Gill was dropped off in the match against Mumbai Indians - slower length ball on the stumps resulting in a chipped drive - is not a one-off. The idea to keep Gill quiet - whether it succeeds or not also depends on conditions - is to move the ball in towards off and middle, sprinkle slower balls on the stumps, and test him out.
Deepak Chahar will have to set the tone with the new ball. In 2021, Chahar bowled 18 balls to him for 21 runs and two wickets, but Gill right now is a completely different batter to 2021. Yet Chahar has bowled 14 balls to him this year for 17 runs and one wicket. Watch out for a slightly short-of-a-length ball that comes back in.
About phases more than match-ups
With teams this consistent, there are no surprises left at this time of the season. Ravindra Jadeja has enough right-hand batters to bowl to right through the middle. Same with Noor Ahmad, who is a wristspinner so the kind of batter doesn't matter that much.
If required, Rashid Khan and Theekshana will bowl one over each in the powerplay, two in the middle and come back for one at the death. Chahar and Mohammed Shami will work with the new ball, Pathirana and Mohit Sharma in the back half.
If the batters can successfully go after Chahar and Jadeja, or Shami and Noor, they could make the opposition captains introduce other bowlers sooner than originally intended.
Win the toss and?
The last time CSK batted second was May 6. Since then they have defended successfully in three matches out of four. Dew at night had a significant impact in the one match they lost. These matches, though, were in Chennai and Delhi. Looking at how Titans went against Mumbai in Qualifier 2 with hardly any dew around, there is a strong case for batting first. In no IPL have teams batting first won more matches (40) or more regularly (54.8% of the time) than this year. Probably due to the Impact Player rule, sides batting first have shed the inhibitions of before, and have constantly gone past the par score.
But Titans, who won against Mumbai batting first, wanted to chase on Friday because of the rain around. With very little chance of rain in Ahmedabad on Sunday, there is a small matter of the unpredictable dew, which changes equations drastically. It is a gamble that might well depend on how the outfield is on the eve of the match.
A recap of tactics from previous CSK-Titans game
Watch Shami for one over. If the ball is not moving, go after him. If it is moving, try to deny him a wicket.
Jadeja might have got David Miller out in the last match, but it was a turning pitch. Titans still need to make sure he is not allowed to bowl four overs at a go. Hardik doesn't have a good match-up against Jadeja, so it is better to promote Miller if a wicket falls during Jadeja's spell. Miller also has 17 runs off ten balls against Theekshana without getting out to him.