Which one is it going to be?
Each day that we get closer to the start of any global ICC event, it feels like the most relevant question to ask of Pakistan. Sure, it's a slightly flippant way to look at it, a little ludicrous even, because this is not how you assess the chances of a team at a world event. Not in this day and age anyway. It's always the fiddly things you look at, the SWOT analysis - the depth and composition of a squad, recent form, experience, all the stuff that actually wins and loses matches.
And of course, all of it is terribly important, and we will get to it. But I know I want to put this out there and I'm pretty sure you do as well, so let's just get it out of the way.
Which one is this going to be?
Which legendary and/or infamous previous Pakistan campaign will this World Cup play out like the most? Are we in for the despair and elation vortex of '92, '09 and '17, with title surges forged from total dirges? The arrival of an unheralded kid, fast bowlers fast bowling, stars starring, Pakistan Pakistaning?
Or should we prepare for the unnervingly smooth(ish) ride but knockout traumas of '99, '07 (the T20 World Cup obviously, because why would you even want to invoke the other global tournament that year?) and '11? Pakistan being slightly unPakistan, playing to plans and patterns, maximising skill and talent and OMG they're going to win this like peak Australia and… oh this feels like South Africa trauma.
On the surface, this side doesn't seem given to the swings and roundabouts of the first type of campaign, or perhaps that's because of the temptation to see them in the image of their leader. This is Babar Azam's time and it is Babar Azam's team and Babar Azam is an unflinchingly equable man, in personality and in performance. History is yet to record an unequable public utterance from his mouth, just as it is yet to record (at least since he broke through in Tests back in 2018) a sustained, unequable run of form. His sides have been ranked No. 1 in ODIs, they have made the semi-finals and the final of the last two T20 World Cups. This side, with a settled core, does consistency, and evenness of performance.
Which would leave the second kind of campaign (the 2021 T20 World Cup for example), except… except that at the last ODI World Cup they did the nearly-92, marginally mistiming their surge and little bits of the universe not playing ball in conspiring to get them through to the last four. Six members of that squad are here. Last year, at the T20 World Cup, they did a hybrid version (and you thought you'd heard the last of that word for a while), where a 1992-esque run ended in a final trauma. And remember four members of this squad were part of the 2017 Champions Trophy win, the most '92 tournament win they have had outside of 1992.
But the team is in a weird place right now, and it's impossible to predict which way they might go. Until less than a month ago, just before the second game against India in the Asia Cup, they looked a proper threat for this World Cup. They had as good a pace attack as any, a top-heavy but successful batting order, six matchwinners, and a fielding unit about which nothing much needed to be said - because it was perfectly efficient.
Who are the favourites and what about Pakistan?
Since that game, though - and how much that reserve day their board fought for has cost them - it feels like a different side, a little less sure of itself, a little more in flux. Those little fiddly details, a key player not firing, another one missing, holes that still need plugging elsewhere, are all looming slightly larger now and more urgently, a day out from the start of their campaign.
Forget which one this will be and maybe start panicking that it may be neither?
Well not just yet because it is worth putting some of the details into perspective. Fakhar Zaman's loss of form, for instance, is not, strictly speaking, a loss of form. For a start, as recently as April he hit three hundreds in consecutive ODIs. Since then, in ten innings, he is averaging 19 but he's only been out in single figures twice; he has five scores between 20 and 33. A plummeting strike rate during that run suggests doubt has crept in, but the sense remains that if he can get himself to some kind of a landmark, say a scratchy, lukewarm 50, there could be riches on the other side.
In any case, Pakistan will need to show faith because he is the wildcard in what is a pretty straight-laced if high-functioning top order. It's not rocket science: Fakhar's the man who turns 280-300 into 330-350. Pakistan have scored 330-plus 12 times in ODIs since Fakhar's debut in 2017. He's hit four hundreds and three fifties in those games, averaging 92.30 with a strike rate of 114.80.
On the other hand, putting Shadab Khan's recent form into perspective is not going to lessen that panic. Not least because over the last couple of years, he has been the absolute barometer of Pakistan's white-ball teams. If he is having a good day in the field, Pakistan soar. A bad one, as at the Asia Cup, and Pakistan flounder. He bowled as poorly in that tournament as he has at any stage in his career, but even if it is unlikely he will be that poor again, the most striking impression was that his bowling has perhaps not evolved in the 50-over format in the same way it has in T20s.
In large part, put that down to cricket's wonky scheduling in these pandemic years. If Shadab has not grown, it could be because he's barely played any ODI cricket: only 23 matches since the last World Cup. Tom Latham has played 17 this year alone. Shadab himself played nearly twice as many ODIs in the first bit of his career, two years from his debut to the 2019 World Cup. But after that World Cup he's played nearly six times as many T20s.
The conundrum for Pakistan is that he is, by default, their lead spinner without being the kind of specialist, wicket-taking spinner - at least not yet - that almost every other successful side possesses. He'd make for a great second spinner except Pakistan have rarely played a specialist spinner alongside him. Usama Mir, who is in the squad, is the only one since the last World Cup and he's only played three ODIs alongside Shadab. All of which is why Abrar Ahmed could have been a big, but very tantalising, punt.
The steadier uptick in Shadab's batting is why he should play though. He's gotten relatively more opportunities to bat since the last World Cup and though his average has only inched up (25.92 to 26.46) the strike rate has bolted (68.63 to 102.84). Plus, he makes it to the side for his fielding alone.
For the loss of Naseem Shah, it's difficult to keep any perspective. It is a deep wound for Pakistan, made deeper still by persistent muttering that it was preventable, that he had been complaining of shoulder pain and in need of rest. Shaheen Shah Afridi is the bigger star but, across an entire innings and across formats, Naseem has been the bigger bowler this year. Mohammad Wasim and Hasan Ali are capable, and their good days can be electric, but hope currently outweighs expectation with both.
Anyway, the optimist will see the signs they want to see from this. Waqar Younis on the eve of the you-know-which World Cup. Poor warm-up games back then as well. A little bit of disarray on the field. Plenty off it back at Gaddafi Stadium. Two new balls, the same format as that World Cup (with one extra team), you know this drill.
And it's ok to admit this is the campaign we're all rooting for, even if it means there will be pain before the possibility of joy. Even if it feels churlish, at this stage, to point out that with the cakes that keep on coming and all that Hyderabadi biryani, it's clearly not Ramadan. Which, IYKYK.