It is the question underpinning every international squad: should selection be seen as an art, or a science? "You're trying to balance the two out all the time," Rob Key, England's managing director, said after unveiling a 16-man Test squad to tour India in early 2024. "In this, it's more of a feel."
'This' referred to the decision to include Shoaib Bashir, a 20-year-old offspinner who made his professional debut for Somerset in June, as one of England's four spin options for the tour. It could also be extended to cover the inclusion of Tom Hartley: like Bashir, an uncapped fingerspinner with a modest first-class record.
Even including Jack Leach and Rehan Ahmed, the likely pairing for the first Test in Hyderabad on January 25, England's spinners managed 55 County Championship wickets between them this season, at a combined average of 47. "You're not going to expect your spinner to average 24 with the ball in county cricket," Key conceded.
Instead, England have turned to the underlying numbers, looking at the attributes that have correlated with success in recent Test series in India rather than measuring players' output by averages alone. "Test cricket out in India has been of a certain style of late," Key said.
"The way Indian spinners bowl is different to your classical English spinner at times: a bit more side-on, get it up, use flight as much as anything. Someone like [Ravindra] Jadeja fires it into middle stump pretty quickly. It's a different style of bowling to what we're used to in England."
Bashir and Hartley are both 6ft 4in and data from the iHawk cameras worn by umpires in domestic cricket confirmed that they use their height in their actions. "Without sounding like an analyst, he's got one of the higher release points in the game," Key said of Bashir.
"We have been trying to earmark the spinners we think will be most useful in India… you almost have to disregard what's happened in county cricket, because it's a very different style of bowling, and try to work out who will be the best players for what we will come up against."
That logic has informed England's thinking throughout Key's tenure as managing director, which has seen him double up as a selector. Zak Crawley's 480-run Ashes series vindicated their long-standing belief that he was better suited to facing genuine pace than the medium-fast seamers that dominate in the Championship, while Josh Tongue (currently injured) was picked this summer despite, not because of, his county form.
Hartley, who won two ODI caps against Ireland in September, has been on England's radar for the past 18 months and is seen as the closest bowler that England have to Axar Patel: a tall left-arm spinner who bowls closer to 60mph than 50mph. "Our bet is that he'll be a real handful out there," Key said.
Bashir has emerged from left-field. He impressed Key and Brendon McCullum on an England Lions camp in the United Arab Emirates, taking six wickets in a tour match against Afghanistan A. "His ceiling is really high," Key said. "He's very raw, he's going for experience as much as anything else, albeit we won't be afraid to play him if required."
Key's comments hinted at another obvious similarity between Hartley and Bashir: they are 24 and 20 years old respectively, and are unlikely to have any qualms with starting the tour as back-up spinners. Neither do they have any commitments in franchise leagues which clash with the Test series.
That stands in clear contrast to two players who were left out in Liam Dawson and Will Jacks, both of whom have lucrative contracts in the SA20. "Liam Dawson is probably not someone who wants to go around India as the 15th or 16th man," Key said. "I don't think it's high on his agenda to be going as, essentially, a replacement bowler."
If selection were based on county form alone, Dawson's 49 wickets at 20 for Hampshire would have made him certain to tour. But he is eight inches shorter than Hartley, and bowls at a slightly slower pace: "I just feel like the style of bowling that Hartley has actually puts him ahead of him [Dawson], to be honest," Key said.
Jacks, meanwhile, is in England's plans heading into next year's T20 World Cup, and is set to bat at No. 3 in Barbados on Tuesday night. "You're making a decision… is it better for them to be going around carrying drinks throughout India, or can they go and play franchise cricket when we've got a World T20 coming up? That was the decision around Will Jacks," Key said.
In both cases, communication between the board and players ought to have been clearer. Dawson said in October that he had received minimal contact from the ECB and hinted he could turn down a call-up if offered; Jacks revealed last week that he found out he had missed out on a central contract while scrolling through social media.
In March, Australia ran India as close as any team has in their own conditions in the last decade, with two inexperienced spinners - Todd Murphy and Matt Kuhnemann - both impressing; England's gamble is that their own rookies can do the same. "This is one of the toughest assignments you can have," Key said, "and it's also one of the opportunities to do something great."