If history mattered more than reputation, South Africa would go into their Test series against New Zealand as out-and-out favourites. They have never lost a Test series against them, in 17 meetings. But if it were the other way around - as is the case - then South Africa's underdog tag is justified. They embark on an 18th rubber against New Zealand with eight uncapped players including a debutant captain and none of their long-format regulars.
The reasons for South Africa's composition of a makeshift squad have been extensively explained (crash course: the main players are involved in the SA20, which is the financial saviour of the game in the country) and agonised over, and for the players involved, it's all become a bit passé. For South Africa, they have got to make the most of what they have and they are "excited for the challenge," according to Dane Paterson, who is expected to lead the bowling attack.
And for New Zealand, they have to play the opposition put in front of them and also not get carried away with the labels that have been attached to them, which is what Rachin Ravindra insists they are doing.
"When you step into the middle, I don't think there is anything like underdog status," Ravindra said in Mount Maunganui. "It's about what happens in the moment. The ball is bowled and you are supposed to play it and all the external noise floats away."
Ravindra speaks from experience. The last Test he played was in early 2022, at the same venue, when Bangladesh beat New Zealand for the first time in this format. It was a result ranked in the all-time top five of the game's greatest upsets. Fast forward 24 months and Bangladesh beat New Zealand again, in Sylhet, to ensure that the last two series between these two teams have been shared. The second of those was New Zealand's first series of the 2023-2025 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle and the 1-1 draw leaves them in exactly the same position as South Africa on the points table. As far as contests within contests go, that's worth noting.
Both New Zealand and South Africa are still in the opening exchanges of their WTC cycle - Australia, for comparison, have already played ten Tests - and a quick glance at their other fixtures underlines how important this series is to both of them.
New Zealand next host Australia, then head to Sri Lanka and India for tough away assignments, and return home to play England later this year. Maximum points against South Africa would seem to be their best way of getting on the front foot for the rest of the campaign. On the other hand, South Africa have already shared a series with India, will play away in West Indies and Bangladesh before hosting Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the 2024-25 summer. Given their schedule, they will identify this New Zealand contest as one they could possibly afford to lose but will also know that victory could put them in a good position to challenge for a spot in the final.
That's the big picture, but there are several smaller ones to focus on as well. Though there are some in South Africa's Test squad - Paterson, Duanne Olivier and Dane Piedt - who answered a Hail Mary call from coach Shukri Conrad and agreed to tour with full knowledge they are unlikely to be part of future plans, there are others for whom this could be an opportunity. Neil Brand, the captain, is hopeful of taking over Dean Elgar's opening spot, David Bedingham, the middle-order batter who debuted against India, can establish himself, and Keegan Petersen, who has been dropped twice in two seasons, could see this as a final opportunity to make the No. 3 spot his own.
"A lot of the guys in their team will want to continue to push forward for South African Test selection and we need to make sure we don't lose sight of them," Ravindra said.
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The same thing applies the other way. Ravindra has made a return to the Test side after the Bangladesh match mentioned above, Glenn Philips could play his first Test at home, and Will O'Rourke is in line for a debut in the second game. O'Rourke will take the place of one of the players in the squad for the first Test so there are spots at stake for New Zealand too, even as they chase history, in more ways than one.
The rivalry between New Zealand and South Africa extends well beyond cricket and the last sporting meeting between these two sides was one for the ages. Last year's rugby World Cup final - played three days before the cricket sides' meeting at the 50-over World Cup - saw South Africa triumph by one point and came to symbolise the resilience and fortitude of the nation. "South Africa are a very, very proud sporting nation, not just a cricket nation," Ravindra said. "They play with a lot of pride. They play with fight, and a no-fear mentality."
The Test squad only needs to look across the ditch, where the national women's team beat Australia for the first time in a T20I as an example. That, along the performance of the men's national football team, who have not gone past the quarter-finals of the African Cup of the Nations since the year 2000, all serve as reminders that South Africans don't easily settle for second-best. "Every South African does not see themselves as an underdog," Paterson said. "We pride ourselves on dealing with those pressure situations. I think that's where we are at our best. This series we will probably get faced with that and it's exciting to take that challenge on."
So would he go as far as naming a favourite? Not quite. "New Zealand will be doing a lot of data searching and stuff like that because obviously they don't know the players that are here. So it's a bit of an unknown to them," Paterson said. "It's an unknown to us as well because obviously we've never played against New Zealand. In that case, I think it's quite even."