On the surface, India go into this T20 World Cup looking jaded. They are trying more or less what they have been trying over the previous few World Cups but are looking for different results. There is a good chance their batting line-up might end up looking indistinguishable from the one last time around (in 2022), which gave them too few to defend in the semi-final against England. Or against South Africa for that matter.
Five out of the top seven that played England could be the same, with Ravindra Jadeja, who had missed that tournament because of an injury but is available this time, not exactly different to Axar Patel either.
It might appear that the intervening one-and-a-half years have not been spent well. Yet, there have been subtle changes in the structure and the approach that make India strong contenders to make it to the last four. Given that the team leadership - selectors, coach and captain - was brought together only seven months back when the board seemed to suddenly realise how close the World Cup was, it is perhaps the best that could be asked of them.
There are, of course, two big additions to the squad this time: Jasprit Bumrah and Kuldeep Yadav, who do what nobody else in the world does with their efficiency, adding heft to whatever totals India might be putting on the board. Then there is a small matter of Virat Kohli playing the best T20 cricket of his career, taking what might have seemed to him an almost existential leap from wanting to bat long, which works in every other format for him, to wanting to create impact and trusting those after him in T20s.
The real new introductions, though, are two left-hand batters in Shivam Dube and Yashasvi Jaiswal, who had the leadership as excited as those watching. Technically, Sanju Samson is an addition too, but he plays more like the other India batters.
It is Dube and Jaiswal who give India's batting the freshness it has craved. This is probably where India have to make their toughest choice: only one of them can be accommodated in the XI. Rohit Sharma is the captain, Kohli is in the form of his life, Suryakumar Yadav should not be touched even if he scores seven ducks in a row in the league matches, they need a wicketkeeper, and they need two allrounders. That's six slots taken.
There are only two scenarios in which both Dube and Jaiswal can play. In the first, the team management counts on Jadeja and Dube for four overs plus some back-up for a struggling mainline bowler. In the second, they play Jadeja at No. 8, and ask for a combined eight overs from Jadeja, Hardik Pandya and Dube. But neither of them is a leap the team might be prepared to take.
It is not too much of a guess that India want Dube more than they do Jaiswal. Dube is the real X-factor, the spin-disruptor and the left-hand batter that they need in the middle order. In the just-concluded IPL 2024, Dube displayed an even better version of the batter he was in 2023, handling the short ball well, which made it tough for the bowlers to shut him down. He might be given the same freedom which Chennai Super Kings gave him.
But the one problem with this is that it leaves an open invitation for sides to bowl left-arm spin with the new ball. Rohit and Kohli will have to be the openers should Dube play ahead of Jaiswal.
But Rohit and Kohli struggle to dictate terms to left-arm spinners. Kohli has made a big improvement against this genre of bowling, but it is still his least-favoured match-up: a strike rate of 131 against left-arm spin this IPL as against 155 overall. Rohit might try to hit out - and he did try to hit out in the IPL - but in the IPL, his average and strike rate against left-arm spin were considerably lower than his overall numbers.
So what India can hope for is that Rohit puts an even lower price on his wicket than he has been doing, either taking down the new ball or perish trying. It is a wicket they will be prepared to lose in pursuit of quick starts; in the worst case, Suryakumar enters and breaks the match-ups.
This may not be perfect, but the most workable and practical solution is this top seven: Kohli, Rohit, Suryakumar, Samson/Rishabh Pant, Dube, Pandya, Jadeja/Axar. This can be stretched further if they play both the left-arm spinners and sacrifice a more attacking bowler.
There is one alternative, though, that is not as far left-field as it sounds at first. If this doesn't work out - especially if Dube's form is not great - there is one unexplored aspect of the batting of two ODI greats that could be explored: either of Rohit or Kohli as a middle-order batter. The top order plays fearlessly, and one of them is there to play a game more suited to their styles should there be a collapse.
That is not all, though: both of them are devastating hitters at the death. There is a credible school of thought that it is not necessary for them to have batted 16 overs to be that dangerous at the death. That getting their eye in might not be as important as it has previously been thought to be. It can make India's top order less predictable and less prone to being tied up by spin.
And should such a leap be taken, Rohit is the likelier candidate for it because Kohli has already hit form as an opening batter. Rohit has the touch, the power and the awareness to hit any kind of bowling at the death. Of the 750 balls Rohit has faced at the death in all T20 cricket, only 50 have come since 2019. Twenty-nine of those 50 have come this year, and brought 79 runs without a dismissal.
Admittedly, not the ideal Plan A given the structure of this squad, but closer to B than C.