Scenarios: How can Australia and Afghanistan qualify? Do Bangladesh still have a chance?

Mitchell Marsh and Rashid Khan all smiles at the toss ICC/Getty Images

Australia's 24-run defeat against India in the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2024 means their semi-final chances now depend on the result of the last group game, between Bangladesh and Afghanistan. For Australia to qualify, Bangladesh need to beat Afghanistan, but by a margin of under 62 runs if they bat first (assuming a total of 140). If Bangladesh chase, they'll need to get to 141 in at least 12.4 overs for Australia to finish with a higher run rate.

That means Bangladesh, whose net run rate is currently languishing at -2.489, need a huge win on Monday night to surpass Australia's -0.331. A win by 62 or more runs, and a chase of 141 in 12.3 overs or earlier, will push them to second place on the points table. (If they level the scores and then win with a six, they can push the chase to 13.1 overs.) If Afghanistan score 160, Bangladesh can stay ahead of Australia by chasing it down in 12.5 overs or sooner (if they score 161), or in 13.3 overs if they level scores and win with a six.

For Afghanistan, the equation is much easier: a win will ensure second place in the group and a place in the semi-finals, while a defeat will knock them out. That's because even with a Super Over defeat, their NRR will only improve to -0.433, which is still below Australia's -0.331.

The team which qualifies in second place in this group will take on South Africa, the Group 2 toppers, in Tarouba in a night game on Wednesday, while India will take on England in the second semi-finals in a day game on Thursday in Providence.