Well, that escalated quickly.
Barely 48 hours after beginning their Super Eight game against Afghanistan with five wins from five at the T20 World Cup 2024, Australia's campaign was over. The drama went down to the wire as the hectic scenes between Afghanistan and Bangladesh played out, but by then it was out of their hands.
It is the nature of tournament cricket, especially where stages are as condensed as this. Similar fates could have happened to other teams: South Africa were a whisker away from being eliminated based on one defeat; India were not mathematically safe heading into the Australia match.
But it means that for all the good cricket Australia played earlier in the tournament - and they hadn't fluked themselves into a strong position - it all came to nothing. For the second T20 World Cup running, they have underachieved. In 2022 it was a group stage exit on home soil; in contrast to this edition, where a strong start faded at the worst time, on that occasion, they paid the price for a heavy first-up defeat against New Zealand.
So what does it all mean for Australia's T20 cricket heading into the future?
Horror catching show
If you want to pinpoint one area where it went wrong, it was the fielding. The poor outing against Scotland may not have mattered on the day (and they still won the game) but it wasn't a blip. Against Afghanistan, they had one of the worst days in recent memory with five dropped catches, albeit none were sitters, a missed stumping and sloppy groundwork. Take 20-25 runs off the target and it is likely a very different outcome - the pressure chasing 125 instead of 150 would have been significantly less.
They were better against India, but there was still a crucial miss. Australia had fought back in the latter half of the innings after Rohit Sharma's onslaught. Hardik Pandya had 4 from 6 when he skied one into the off side against Adam Zampa. Mitchell Marsh was underneath it at backward point but somehow couldn't hold on. Pandya would finish on 27 of 17 balls, twice clearing the rope off Marcus Stoinis in the penultimate over. Had the catch been taken, those runs may well have been scored by the next batter, but it could also have trimmed a few off the total. The difference between 205 and 190?
A tournament too far?
During the tournament, Matthew Wade admitted his career would have been finished if Australia hadn't won in the UAE in 2021 when he emerged as a key finisher. Around the 2022 edition, he indicated it would be his last. Yet here he was, back again for another go in 2024. It's easy to make these calls in hindsight, but was it one too many?
Wade was untidy at times behind the stumps and missed a stumping chance against Afghanistan. With the bat, he had two opportunities to play decisive hands - against Afghanistan and India - but couldn't reprise that 2021 success. The role Wade had of finisher is one of the hardest in the game, getting precious little time in the middle if everything goes well, then expected to win games from the toughest of positions. But that's why the best are so highly regarded.
Wade had been excellent in India last year during the five-match T20I series play in the hangover of the ODI World Cup. He was Australia's leading run-scorer with 128 at a strike-rate of 166.23, and it went a long way to shoring up his spot for this tournament. The selectors have liked having a left-handed option in the middle order.
But the future was there on the bench. Josh Inglis replaced Alex Carey one game into the ODI World Cup and while his stock in trade in T20 is not as a finisher - only 13 of his 113 T20 innings have come below No. 4 - he had previously shown his adaptability, and he is an excellent player of spin. Inglis could bat a little higher in a reshaped order.
Ellis' time
One of the themes that ran through the tournament was Australia's big three: Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.
They were managed in the group stage, but there were compelling reasons why they should play. Starc had hit his stride dramatically late in the IPL, Cummins bowled very consistently amid a torrent of runs in that tournament and Hazlewood's development as a T20 bowler has put him among the best in the world. His figures against India were remarkable and his tournament economy was a miserly 6.04. Cummins claimed back-to-back hat-tricks.
Starc ended the tournament with an economy of 8.55 after a one-over mauling by Rohit in St Lucia (2 for 45 was a good return in that context, but it was a key over to go badly) and, given his stated desire to prioritise Test cricket, there's a chance he may not return for a sixth T20 World Cup in two years' time when he will be 36.
He is, without doubt, a white-ball great. During the tournament he became the leading wicket-taker across both World Cup formats. But since taking 10 wickets at 16.40 (economy 6.83) at the 2012 T20 World Cup in Sri Lanka, the next four editions have brought 22 wickets at 29.54 with an economy of 8.90. Drilling down further, in three of the four games Australia have lost in the last three T20 World Cups - against England (2021), New Zealand (2022) and India (2024), Starc's powerplay figures read 5-0-71-0.
The understudy, Nathan Ellis, has made a compelling case. He played three matches, although only ever as a replacement for those rested or Starc's tweaked calf against Namibia. In those three games he took four wickets and conceded 6.72 an over. While facing Oman and Namibia perhaps needs to be viewed with a slightly difference lens, his death overs against Scotland were outstanding and a key reason Australia weren't chasing closer to 200. Now is the time for him to entrusted to grow as a leader of the T20 attack, whoever it's in place of.
What next for Australia's T20 side?
So, on that note, what of the future? Unlike ODI World Cup cycles which take four years, in T20 it's now just two (and, in fact, less so heading to 2026 with that tournament in India and Sri Lanka scheduled for February).
Hazlewood said after the India loss that he did not see a massive turnover. But he will be 35 by the next tournament. David Warner has retired and Wade will surely now be moved on. Glenn Maxwell will be 37, Marcus Stoinis 36. Cummins will be the youngest of the big three at 32. Captain Marsh will be 34.
Marsh will provide an interesting debate. His preparation for this tournament was hindered by a hamstring injury that took longer to heal than expected. He never quite hit his straps with the bat and didn't bowl, although was able to by the Super Eight. Was the batting a question of form or the burden of captaincy? Only he'll know that, although he was well placed against India when Axar Patel plucked out his wonder catch.
The nucleus of the next generation is already taking shape. That's led by Jake Fraser-McGurk along with Inglis and Ellis (who are already both 29) alongside Cameron Green and Matthew Short of those who were in the Caribbean. The selectors will hope legspinner Tanveer Sangha can shake off his injury issues, the same for quick Jhye Richardson. Spencer Johnson could be a Starc like-for-like. Xavier Bartlett is also among the next in line.
There is no crisis in Australia's T20 cricket, even if the manner of their exit in the Caribbean will raise some questions, but the make-up of their next squad - to tour Scotland and England in September - will be fascinating and should give an indication of early plans for 2026.