Pakistan have been confronted by two sets of very different challenges in their last two Test series. First, they lost the unwinnable; no Pakistan Test side had managed anything other than defeat in Australia since 1995. Then, at home, they lost the unlosable, suffering their first and second Test defeats to Bangladesh. Now, with England on their shores to play three Test matches, they face their most intriguing challenge: the possible.
It is perhaps this kind of match-up, where success is unlikely but eminently achievable, that is best placed to determine the upper limits of Pakistan's grasp, and most in danger of exposing the pace of their slide. Moving past Pakistan's defeats in Australia as a grim rite of passage that they cannot escape requires some generosity; setting aside an excellent Bangladesh side's clean sweep in Pakistan as a freak event demands excessive charity. One was too predictable, the other too dramatic, and neither conducive to rational assessment. But a home series against England is precisely the sort of contest Pakistan have cherished competing in. This is a litmus test.
Pakistan's psychological scars may have begun to prick once more at the memories of what England dished out in 2022-23. But while the tendency to group all of their results under the all-encompassing term Bazball remains undying, England now are scarcely the formidable side that delivered Pakistan's only home-series whitewash to date. In the intervening two years, England have just about split the 19 Tests they've played, winning 10 and losing eight; six of those wins have come at home against West Indies, Sri Lanka and Ireland. Five of their seven away Tests have ended as defeats. None of the four seamers who played any part in the 2022-23 Pakistan tour are in their current squad, and captain Ben Stokes is a serious doubt for the first Test in Multan.
With that limited context, England's triumph two years ago appears an aberration, not the heralding of a new dawn. Greater England sides than this have found playing in Pakistan a struggle; until their 2022 victory, England had managed just one away-series win against Pakistan in 60 years. Months after their iconic Ashes win in 2005, they fell 2-0 on Pakistani shores, and that famously hard-nosed 2009-12 England side were swept away by Pakistan at their adopted UAE home ground in 2011.
But zoom out for greater context, and you run into Pakistan's problems. It's difficult for them to draw encouragement from their opposition's away record when they haven't won a home Test in three-and-a-half years, and though England did lose a dead rubber to Sri Lanka to cap off their red-ball summer, it was overshadowed by Pakistan's own dismantling at Bangladesh's hands.
England's seamers might never have played in Pakistan, but Pakistan are going through their own fast-bowling identity crisis as they struggle for speed, form, fitness or a combination of the three. England's spinners are inexperienced, but Pakistan's supply isn't brimming either, and Abrar Ahmed's 11-wicket debut in Multan two years ago is now a distant memory. And when it comes to batting, Pakistan's problems are in a different league.
Earlier this week, captain Shan Masood appealed for time and patience, but is also clever enough to understand those will be offered in stingy doses with severe prescriptive restrictions. And against an England side perceived to be better than it perhaps is, a competitive series with enough of the numbers in the result corner presents the only viable opportunity to change attitudes about his side.
Pakistan have had a month to reflect on that Bangladesh series, and played domestic one-day cricket in the interregnum; the wisdom of that remains up for debate. But at some point, the only way to read into the quality of this Test side will be the results they get rather than the promise they show, the quality of the opposition or the capriciousness of the pitch. This Pakistan side is either good enough to beat England at home, or they're not. Zak Crawley's comments about the dangers of underestimating Pakistan would suggest England are blocking out the external noise about their supposed superiority over the hosts, and are approaching this series as a contest of equals.
Pakistan still have a distance to travel to demonstrate they have earned that tag. But either way, the upcoming three weeks should go a long way towards illuminating whether that Bangladesh series was a wake-up call, or simply the new company Pakistan keep.