India's 58-run loss to New Zealand in their first match of the Women's T20 World Cup 2024 has made qualification to the semi-finals a bit tricky. Their win margin of six wickets with seven balls to spare in their second match against Pakistan, didn't do enough to offset the heavy loss and that has left them with a net run rate of -1.217. In group A, India have the second-worst NRR with only Sri Lanka, who are yet to register a win in two games, below them on the points table.
However, India can still make it to the semi-finals of the tournament. But they will need some luck because even if they win both their remaining matches, against Sri Lanka and defending champions Australia, they are not assured of a place in the final four unless other results go their way.
The easiest path to the semi-final for India will be to win both their remaining games and hope both New Zealand and Pakistan lose at least one of their two remaining matches. India can also go through with six points if Australia lose both their remaining matches (against India and Pakistan). In that event, only one other team between New Zealand and Pakistan can make it to six points. Sri Lanka can only get to a maximum of four points with no wins from two games yet.
A three-way tie between Australia, New Zealand and India on six points is also possible. New Zealand have helped India's cause to some extent by suffering a heavy 60-run loss against Australia: their NRR has also taken a beating and slipped into the negatives. To catch up with New Zealand's current NRR, India need to win by a margin of about 45 runs or more if they bat first against Sri Lanka on Wednesday.
If they field first, India will have to chase down Sri Lanka's target with 17 to 19 balls to spare, depending on what they are chasing. However, these calculations are only indicative as New Zealand have two matches left to improve their NRR. They also have the advantage of playing their last league match after India are done with theirs. So they'll know exactly what's required in their last league match, against Pakistan, if it comes to that.
India could qualify with just four points also if they win only one of their remaining two games, but given their poor NRR, it looks very unlikely at this stage. A tie on four points with two or three other teams is possible if they beat Sri Lanka but lose to Australia. If they lose to Sri Lanka but manage to beat Australia even a five-way tie on four points is possible.
The best-case scenario for India, however, is to win their remaining two matches and hope the other results go their way.