This story was published before the India-Australia game in Sharjah. Following India's defeat, New Zealand can now make the semi-finals with a win against Pakistan
After New Zealand's win over Sri Lanka with 15 balls to spare, there's more clarity on what the teams in Group A need to do to qualify for the semi-finals. Only two more matches remain to be played from Group A. India will take on Australia on Sunday and New Zealand will play Pakistan on Monday. New Zealand's net run rate (NRR) currently stands at 0.282 and is still well below India's NRR of 0.576. However, India face the tougher challenge of playing the defending champions, who are on a ten-match winning streak. Here's how things could play out in Group A.
Both India and New Zealand win, they tie with Australia on six points. The two teams with the best NRR go through
Both India and New Zealand lose, bringing Pakistan also into the equation as well. The team with the best NRR from among India, New Zealand and Pakistan joins Australia in the semis
One of India or New Zealand lose their last match sending the other team into the semi-finals on six points, along with Australia
While the third scenario is straightforward and doesn't involve NRR, here's a lowdown on what the teams need in the first two scenarios.
Both India and New Zealand win
If the first scenario plays out and both India and New Zealand bat first in their respective games, then New Zealand will have to win by at least 17 to 18 runs more than India's win margin against Australia, depending on what the scores are. For example, if India beat Australia by 10 runs, then New Zealand would have have to beat Pakistan by 27 to 28 at least, depending on what these teams score.
There's a possibility, however slim, that Australia are knocked out if they suffer a heavy defeat at the hands of India. If India beat Australia by 61 runs or more runs after posting 150, then Australia's NRR will slip below India's. If India win by exactly 61 runs, then New Zealand will have beat Pakistan by 77 or more if they bat first or with at least 58 balls to spare if they chase to go through as the second team.
Both India and New Zealand lose
If India bat first and New Zealand chase, then a one-run win for India will require that New Zealand win with 14 to 16 balls to spare depending on the scores. If India chase against Australia and secure a last-ball win, then New Zealand will have to win by 19 to 20 runs if they bat first. If New Zealand also chase, they'll have win with 14 to 15 balls to spare. An indicative table of margins is given below.
Should India lose their match, they would have to make sure that they don't lose with more than 15 to 16 balls to spare if they bat first. If they chase, they would have to make sure they don't lose by more than 18 runs. If India ensure that and New Zealand also lose - even if the latter happens off the last ball of the match or by a mere run - India will be through on NRR.
In this scenario, Pakistan will also be in with a chance but, given their poor NRR, their chances are very slim. If India lose by just a run, Pakistan will have to win by 58 or more runs if they bat first. Pakistan's chances of making the semis will be even slimmer if they chase. They will have to win with about 63 or more balls to spare depending on the scores. In a more optimistic scenario, if India lose with 30 or more balls to spare then Pakistan will have to win by at least 30 runs or with at least 24 balls to spare to get past their NRR.