It could not be more deliciously set up. South Africa and Sri Lanka will play in what is effectively a quarter-final of the World Test Championship (WTC) over the next two weeks. Both believe they have built outfits that could challenge for the title next June.
If that sounds like an obviously optimistic thing to say, consider who we are talking about. Over the last two WTC cycles, South Africa lost more than half the series they played in, while Sri Lanka finished in the middle and in the bottom half of the points table. These are teams that have spent a significant amount of time, especially recently, talking about transition phases and building blocks. Now, it sounds like they are ready to move off the ground floor and potentially catch the elevator to the roof if they make it to Lord's next June.
Both captains spoke about their current teams as "the best we have after a long while," as Dhananjaya de Silva put it, though for vastly different reasons. For Sri Lanka, who have won six out of their last eight Tests and crossed 400 four times in that period, they have the makings of a batting line-up they can trust to perform in various conditions and the numbers to prove it.
Kamindu Mendis is Sri Lanka's leading run-scorer of this WTC cycle, and seventh overall, while Dhananjaya is 11th, with three hundreds and six fifties. For context, South Africa only have one batter in the top 40, and he is in 39th place: David Bedingham. Mendis also leads the averages in this edition of the WTC (with a cut-off of 10 innings), with Dhananjaya in fifth place. Between them, they have scored eight of Sri Lanka's 11 hundreds; the other three have come from three different players. Mendis' hundreds have come in Sylhet, Manchester and Galle, which speaks to the ability to transfer talent across what Dhananjaya called increasingly tough conditions for run-scoring everywhere.
"It's hard to get runs anywhere in the world," he said. "If you go to Sri Lanka, it's spinning. And if we go to England, it's going to seam. When we come here [to South Africa], it's going to bounce. It's hard work always for the batsman. But we've got some experience, people who played a lot of cricket here and a lot of cricket in England, a lot of cricket in Sri Lanka. In this team, there's experience and youngsters; we're a mixed side. So I think this is the best team after a long while and we have to make the most of it."
South Africa have something similar, not in numbers necessarily but in sources of their achievements, which come from a wide spread of players. The seven hundreds they have scored in this cycle have each come from a different batter and five of those are from batters scoring hundreds for the first time. For a line-up without any standout superstars (and you may argue one that overly relied on Dean Elgar most recently but AB de Villiers and Hashim Amla before that), that shows progression in both domestic depth and their ability to make the step up.
"We've had different players putting in performances," Temba Bavuma said. "Younger guys have come into this space and they've started putting in performances. With me being a senior player, I take a lot of joy from seeing the young guys coming into the team and I try to contribute to them becoming as good as they can be."
It will probably come as no surprise to hear that what South Africa lack in batting, they make up for in their bowling. Kagiso Rabada is top of the bowling averages among bowlers who have bowled more than 100 balls in this cycle, with Keshav Maharaj not too far behind. Overall, South Africa have the second-lowest bowling average, of 24.13, of this WTC. Yes, Rabada steals the headlines here but with good reason. His career wickets of 313 are only 16 fewer than Sri Lanka's entire six-man pace attack, and we can't forget that he has always had strong support. It's not Lungi Ngidi and Anrich Nortje this time but Marco Jansen and Gerald Coetzee, who are two of the quickest going around.
All this makes the battle lines clear: this series will be decided by how Sri Lanka's batters take on South Africa's attack, even on surfaces which are not expected to be overly seamer-friendly. Given the way they played in England, where they won at The Oval, Sri Lanka have every reason to believe they will be able to challenge South Africa at two venues where they have had success before. "We didn't have a bad series in England, but results didn't come our way. We played good cricket, and we pushed the England team," Dhananjaya said. "We're going to push the South African team to the very end."
And South Africa, after winning their first series in the subcontinent in 10 years last month, also have cause to be bullish as they keep faith in a group of players who will form the core of the future of the Test team. "In this series, there's no new faces, so we're definitely settling in as a team and guys are very comfortable with each other," Bavuma said. "It was all about putting together this team of personalities, guys who effectively can do something special for the team. For me, there is a sense of something special that can come about this team. And I guess we have four or five games to kind of do that."
Four? Definitely because that's the number of matches both South Africa and Sri Lanka have left in this cycle.
Five? Whoever wins at least one of the next two can start to realistically dream of that finale next year.
Let the Test summer begin.
With stats inputs from S Rajesh and Shiva Jayaraman