Coming into his 103rd Test, Kane Williamson boasted the fifth-best conversion rate for Test batters with at least 50 fifty-plus scores, sandwiched between Virat Kohli in fourth and sixth-placed Garry Sobers.
So having been dismissed for 93 two days earlier, inevitability hung in the air on the evening of day three. The 34-year-old Williamson coasted past 50, ticking off 9000 career runs along the way. The form, the poise, the odds - everything was pointing towards Test century No. 33, and overturning England's hard-fought first-innings lead of 151 with ease.
That New Zealand are six down and just four ahead at stumps was squarely on the fact Williamson was no longer there. After he had aced a short-ball test, on came Chris Woakes to re-examine a previously impenetrable defence. After a couple of skews through the cordon, Williamson was trapped in front on 61. And with that, Sobers sneaked back into the top five.
On its own, it was a mood killer, even if Hagley Oval erupted with English cheer in the middle and on the grass banks. But followed up with Tom Blundell squared up and caught behind it was, as Harry Brook put it, "a dagger to their heart".
Wicketless and, at times, weaponless in the first innings, Woakes, having got England going with the wicket of skipper Tom Latham, now had three. Half of a usually diligent top six were in his possession, on a surface with less for the bowlers than when his first 20 overs of the match had gone without reward.
It was during that spell, on a green surface in cool conditions similar to back home, that you wondered if you might be watching Woakes' final Test overseas. A year ago, during his Player-of-the-Series turn in the Ashes, he ceded that his touring days were numbered, offering a self-deprecating (but painfully self-aware), "my away record speaks for itself". That Woakes will be as shocked as anyone to hear there have been two away caps this winter.
The omission from the India tour altogether at the start of the year felt like a line had been drawn. But after leading the attack in the summer following James Anderson's retirement - 24 wickets at 20.25 - Brendon McCullum applied the "attributes over averages" filter to the team's veteran. Saturday's spell added a faint lick of gloss on those away numbers - 41 wickets at 50.90 in 22 matches. They won't - and can't - change much given this is the final tour before next winter's Ashes.
With the challenge of India to come in the summer, a cold-hearted conversation might be in the offing before then. There are replacements coming to the fore. And it could be that the one who replaced him after both spells from the Botanical Gardens End today could usurp him outright.
Where Woakes bounded down the hill, Brydon Carse stomped, offering a contrast of speed and brutality. The Durham quick has, so far, been England's best bowler. Not just in the match, after taking 4 for 64 in the first innings, but probably the winter outright.
A maiden series in Pakistan brought nine wickets across the first two Tests on wildly different Multan surfaces. With more to work with in Christchurch, he took four in the first innings doing all but snaring Williamson. On day one alone, he skewered the glove, jabbed the grille, and even butted the badge of his helmet with a rising length delivery when Williamson was on 90. "He bowls heavy," Williamson said later.
"There's always an event happening, you feel like you're going to get a wicket every ball," beamed Brook of Carse here today. Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra misjudged bumpers. Glenn Phillips misjudged intention - Carse slightly fuller to pin him for a 50/50 lbw call in his favour.
The trump card for Carse and England - and the potential issue for Woakes - is his batting. The manner of his 33 not out - planting Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke (twice) into the grass banks - was a mix of bullying and aptitude, particularly the way he used his crease to create angles to score fine on the leg side.
Gus Atkinson's surprising emergence as a bowler capable of batting eight has given the tail a more assured and destructive feel. Atkinson's 48 from 36 deliveries, along with Carse's 24-ball cameo, is the first time two batters at No. 9 or lower have managed 30-plus scores at a run-a-ball or better. And should Ben Stokes stay at No. 7 following his careful 80 - his highest score since the 2023 Ashes - there is plenty of batting in the bottom half. Woakes' all-round capabilities will not be a must, as was the case here as he came and went in two deliveries.
There are options for life without Woakes. But they, like the decision on his future as an infrequent flyer and whether he makes it to Australia next year, need not be rushed.
Right now, they are working perfectly in sync. Past, present and future have pushed England into prime position for victory in this first Test.