In a must-win Test match, with two players from your previous game injured, would you pick a bowler with a 15-year first-class career and 165 caps to his name, or an 18-year old breakout star, or a spin-bowling allrounder who can lengthen the batting line-up or one of your two extra specialist batters?
That's the conundrum facing South Africa's Test coach Shukri Conrad over the next 36 hours as he tries to put together the team that will be best suited to beat Sri Lanka at St George's Park.
The good news is that Conrad can pick at least two of the five mentioned above. With Wiaan Mulder ruled out of the series with a broken right middle finger and Gerald Coetzee out of the entire international summer with a groin injury, that's the number of vacancies in the XI. If he was going like-for-like, it would be between the first three players: Dane Paterson, Kwena Maphaka, who are specialist bowlers much like Coetzee, and Senuran Muthusamy, who brings an all-round aspect, albeit with a different bowling discipline to Mulder. And all of them have strong cases for selection.
Let's start with Paterson, who made his Test debut in Gqeberha in January 2020 but has only played four more matches in almost five years since, three of them in 2024. Why? It's probably as simple as the fact that he is a medium-pace bowler over 30 years old in a country where they seem to come off a production line.
Between his debut outing and his recall earlier this year, South Africa capped seven other seamers: Beuran Hendricks, Lutho Sipamla, Marco Jansen, Glenton Stuurman, Lizaad Williams, Gerald Coetzee and Nandre Burger. Of those, Jansen is in the current squad, while Coetzee and Burger are injured, and the rest have not been in a Test squad since.
Paterson, probably thanks to three-and-a-half outstanding seasons for Nottinghamshire in which he took 180 wickets in 45 matches at 23.25, received the SOS when South Africa had to take a makeshift side to New Zealand in February. He did especially well in New Zealand's first innings in Hamilton where he took 3 for 39 and has been part of every one of Conrad's squads since. He didn't play in either matches in West Indies, missed the Dhaka Test but got a game in Chattogram, and carried drinks in Durban. He is comfortable with being a horses-for-courses inclusion.
"I'm 35 so I'm enjoying every moment because you never know - this could be the last," he told reporters at St George's Park. "When you're younger you put a lot of pressure on yourself and that's what I did when I got those first call ups back in the day. Now, I'm just taking it day by day and enjoying every moment that goes by."
So is this the course of action? It could be. "His style of bowling would suit that surface," Piet Botha, South Africa's Test bowling coach said. "You know, bowl that perfect length consistently and with good discipline, you'll definitely come into play."
Paterson has played seven first-class matches, including his franchise debut for the Cobras in 2013, in Gqeberha, where has taken 31 wickets at 21.22 including two five-fors and has an economy of 2.92. That suggests he can play both an attacking and, perhaps more importantly for a team that will have Rabada and Jansen in it, a containing role.
"I'd prefer to do the holding job, like the dirty work," Paterson said. "If the big two fast bowlers need a break, I'll do the dirty work. And say if I can pick up two or three wickets, we're all good. It's just holding the game and then the fast guys can just come in and just be 100% on the first ball. I'm happy. Whatever job I need to do, I need to do. I'm never going to complain. That's always me, through my career. If I need to bowl into the wind and it needs to be a long spell, I'm not going to say no."
The wind will, of course, be a factor in this city. Two days before the match, it was breezing in at 33kmph from the south-west, the drying wind also known as the batting wind in cricket speak. If it stays that way, which it is forecast to do, that will also bring the spinners into play later in the game. That may lead to Muthusamy, a left-arm spinner who made a Test half-century at No.8 against Bangladesh, being the next pick.
"Traditionally, at St George's Park spinners do come into it," Botha said. "It can even be the first innings, depending on the moisture and the pitch. And if you get that wind factor in, spin comes more into play. So the option of a second spinner is definitely there to be discussed."
But there is a potential x-factor South Africa cannot overlook: Maphaka, the 18-year-old left-arm seamer, who has only just finished his final school exams and was the leading wicket-taker at this year's Under-19 World Cup. He has all the ingredients of a superstar.
"He is an unbelievable talent. He's got pace for a young guy and he's got the mental makeup," Botha said. "That's one of his strengths. When you speak to him and you work with him, he's got a big self-belief in his ability. And he bowls in the 140s for a young guy. That's exceptional."
Botha worked with Maphaka when he made his first-class debut against Sri Lanka A in June last year. He has only played two more red-ball games, a year apart, but one at this venue. In November last year, he took two wickets in each innings against the Warriors, including Matthew Breetzke, one of the reserve batters in the Test squad.
On the face of it, Maphaka needs time to learn his long-format game and Conrad hinted at providing that when the squad was first announced and Maphaka was not in it. Then, when injuries struck and with the number of quicks unavailable, he had no choice but to call Maphaka up to the squad. Will Conrad also take a gamble on him playing? It may depend on whether South Africa believe raw pace and an unknown quantity could be what they need to beat Sri Lanka.
And if Maphaka is included, Conrad would still have to decide if the experience of Paterson or the all-round ability of Muthusamy would be the best complementary skill. Whichever of those two is left out could face the reality that they might not play another Test this season, with the Pakistan Test at Centurion, where a seam attack is likely, and Newlands, by which time Mulder could be fit. Does Paterson feel envious that he may be leapfrogged by the future aka Maphaka? "No, you've got to be happy for him," he said. "He's an 18-year old youngster. I also wish I'd got a call-up when I was 18," he said. "I'm excited for him. As a country, we can be excited because bowling stocks are absolutely full and in a good space."
The names of those who are not in the squad also include Lungi Ngidi (groin injury), Anrich Nortje (T20 only for now) and Ottneil Baartman (benched since October but yet to play a Test). In essence, that means South Africa, if all their players are available, will have at least 10 (the three above plus Rabada, Jansen, Coetzee, Mulder, Burger, Maphaka and Paterson) quicks to pick from going forward so Paterson has a point. The challenge is to make sure they're all fit at the same time.