What would India do without Jasprit Bumrah? That question has constantly hung over this series. Now it looks like the series might be decided by the answer to that question.
There was always a consensus that Bumrah would be India's most important player in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. He was rested from the last Test of the home season to ensure his readiness for it. He didn't even bowl in training. He was practically wrapped in cotton wool, a decision that looks prescient now that he's had to deliver 150.2 overs in nine innings, but he still broke down because fast bowlers break down from workloads that high and his workloads were that high because India just didn't have any other consistent threats.
Rishabh Pant played like he took all that's happened to India personally. First ball in on Saturday, he charged at Scott Boland and crashed him for six over long-on. Second ball he tried to reverse-scoop him. On Friday evening, addressing the media, Pant spoke of how he could have taken a 50-50 chance early in the first innings but didn't. It was too early in the game to be taking risks, he felt. It was also too soon after he had been buried under an avalanche of criticism for the way he plays.
On Saturday evening at the SCG, things became really simple. These were the possibilities. With Bumrah, India would feel like they could defend anything. Without him, Australia would feel like they could chase anything.
Despite what the critics have said, Pant has insisted he plays the situation. Here the situation was no longer about who could bat well or who had the best technique. It was purely about scoring runs. There is a trusted method that Pant has to score runs. If that method comes off, it often gets him a lot of runs really quickly. It came off on Saturday. At a really crucial time for India. He took their lead from 63 to 128 in a game where the highest total has been 185.
"All of us were sitting together, the bowlers were sitting together and watching him bat," Prasidh Krishna said after the day's play. "And we definitely said if I was sitting at home and watching this, I would have loved it. To be able to do it from the ground, I mean, nothing like it. I know it's a lot of risk, but that's the way the game is played today."
India kept Australia to 181 with Bumrah bowling. They'll likely need a cushion on that if he doesn't bowl on Sunday.
"Well, clearly he's the leading wicket-taker in the series so you'd say it would be slightly beneficial for us [if he can't bowl]," Australia coach Andrew McDonald said. "If he wasn't to be there then India would have come up with a new plan." If they'd been able to they probably wouldn't be here with him fighting off back spasms.
Last season, Australia's big three quicks got through seven full Tests without breaking down. But they were expected to. There were contingency plans in place. Boland had been told that at some point or other Australia would need him. That Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood lasted as long as they did in 2023-24 was an outlier. They were helped that none of those seven Tests went the distance.
Melbourne did for Bumrah. The 52-plus overs he bowled there were the most he's bowled in a Test match. He got though nine spells on day four when India tried to break open the game. They almost pulled it off. The image of him, keeled over, hands on his knees at stumps was a powerful one. He has been carrying the team all tour. It's their turn now and, on Saturday, they were up for it.
Mohammed Siraj saved India the hurt that could have been. He made sure Australia were already four down by the time Bumrah had to leave the field after lunch. This SCG pitch has offered a rich bounty to anyone willing to hit it hard. But Siraj, for some reason, felt differently. He began looking for swing and he found it. The host broadcaster said the first 10 overs that India bowled on Saturday contained the most swing of any 10-over block in the series. This is the Siraj that India have been looking for all series.
Prasidh, for long typecast as a hit-the-deck bowler, did most of his damage by pitching it up. He dismissed three of Australia's four top-scorers including half-centurion Beau Webster, and made Steven Smith wait a little longer to get to 10,000. "Difference was when I got back at lunch, I actually looked at where I was bowling, the length that I was bowling," Prasidh said. "But my perception of the length that I wanted to bowl was slightly different. Then the analyst and me sat together and we had a better idea of what my reference point is when I am coming in to bowl the next ball and that really helped."
Saturday had one India captain saying that although he'd dropped himself he still had aspirations to continue playing. Saturday had another India captain walking off injured and a former India captain taking over two years after he'd given it all up. Saturday had a maverick who was coming under fire fighting back with fire. Saturday had 15 wickets falling. And yet Sunday seems like it is going to be so much bigger.