Timing is everything in an auction.
If you've read my work for any length of time, you know I'm a huge proponent of getting value in a fantasy baseball auction wherever you find it. The wrinkle in an auction is that said bargains appear at any moment and any position, you must be constantly ready to strike when they do, and since some decisions eliminate possibilities later in the auction process, you can't sweat the wrong turns.
My team in this year's AL-only League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) serves as good a reminder as any: I was more aggressive than usual in this year's auction, hoping to lock down cornerstone pieces in order to free up opportunities for bargain hunting in the later rounds. For those unfamiliar, LABR -- though a 12-team mixed league was added to its roster for 2020 -- is a pair of long-standing 12-team "only" expert leagues with traditional rotisserie rosters (meaning two catchers, nine pitchers of any type and a six-man reserve list drafted serpentine-style at the end) and a $260 auction budget.
After getting my key speedster in Francisco Lindor ($37 valuation, $36 price) early, I was hopeful of landing one of the run-producing, $30-plus third basemen in either Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rendon or Rafael Devers.
I wound up rostering two, for exactly $30 apiece, in Rendon and Devers.
That's not to say it was the wrong approach -- I had Rendon valued $32 and Devers $33, and Ramirez had previously cost $35 -- but it did limit my plan and sent me to the bargain-shopping bin more quickly than expected. Most frustrating: it precluded me from bidding on Jose Abreu, who wound up going for a steal-of-the-auction $24. It'd sure have been nice to have Rendon's $30 back to spend on Abreu, a deeper outfield and/or more starting pitching, but take the values when they come and don't sweat the ones you're forced to miss later.
Abreu and Elvis Andrus annually seem like bargains, whatever the league. Abreu earned $26 in this format last year, Andrus $22. Andrus wound up the linchpin to my entire strategy, his 23 projected stolen bases giving me the critical second speedster I needed at that moment in the auction and locking me into an upper-third position in the projected standings.
Why are we so quick to ignore "boring," consistent veteran players? We'll throw Carlos Santana ($20/$18), Shin-Soo Choo ($16/$12) and Dallas Keuchel ($8/$7) into this discussion, as all three cost less than my valuations.
The hitting/pitching split was 68.4%/32.6%, but despite the greater-than-typical expenditure on the hitting side, the room broadly regarded the pitching side as sticking closer to market values. I entered LABR planning to purchase my top pitcher, Gerrit Cole ($40/$43), with a fallback option of two second-tier arms for roughly $45 combined, but when Cole's bidding reached $42, I moved on to that Plan B. The 15 pitchers I had valued between $10-$20 combined sold for $3 more than expected, but in a curious twist, the 10 pitchers I had valued between Cole's $40 and $21 sold for a combined $19 beneath expectations.
Perhaps that's the product of injury questions among that group: Chris Sale, who missed 44 days last season and is likely to begin the season on the injury list; Blake Snell, whose elbow issues surfaced only hours before the beginning of the auction; and Mike Clevinger, expected to miss the first month of the season with a knee injury.
Plan B fortunately worked: Charlie Morton sold for $24, $2 beneath my valuation, and in one of the greater surprises of the auction, Carlos Carrasco's bidding stalled at my $16 offer. Combined they sold for $3 less than Cole, which isn't to say that the pair is a lock to outperform Cole plus a replacement-level pitcher's contribution, but there's a pretty good chance they will. In my early drafts, Morton doesn't seem to be getting enough respect, and at least judging by LABR's results, Carrasco certainly isn't, either.
Outfield was where you could bargain shop, which didn't especially help me in the later rounds but is a worthwhile tip to tuck away for your own AL-only league. At that position alone, besides Choo, Michael Brantley ($21/$18), Max Kepler ($20/$18), Austin Hays ($10/$8) and Stephen Piscotty ($8/$5) were all outfielders I'd have liked to roster for the price.
Nomar Mazara ($14/$15, my bid) was a later-round buy as I tried to address what seemed like a shortcoming in the power department. Maybe I'm too patient waiting his breakthrough, but the change of scenery could help, he'll still call a homer-friendly ballpark his home and I expect the White Sox's offense to surprise. Still, if there's a player I'd love to throw back and allocate his funds elsewhere, he's the guy.
Auditions for Team Cockcroft rotation spots begin next Monday, as I'll be seeking some starting pitching gems on the free-agent list. Being short on funds throughout the second half of the auction -- I had $50 or fewer for the majority -- kept me from scoring some of the cheap arms I was targeting, like Reynaldo Lopez ($6/$6), Aaron Civale ($6/$8) or Jordan Montgomery ($8/$4).
Using relievers to drive down my ratios until I figure that out will be key, which explains the Roberto Osuna ($19/$19), Matt Magill ($2/$6), Trevor May ($2/$3) and Zack Britton ($1/$4) picks. Magill was the third choice of my three projected cheap-second-closer targets -- Hansel Robles and Joe Jimenez the first two -- having finished last season with a 15.6% swinging-strike rate and 5-for-6 performance converting saves in September alone.
A rules wrinkle in LABR, reinforcing the old adage "always know your rules": Players purchased during the auction process cannot be reserved for so long as they remain on a major league active roster; they must be cut outright to be removed. Players selected during the six-round reserve draft, however, can be freely activated or reserved all season. That's why ratio-helping relievers are integral to a cheap-pitching strategy, because they protect those categories while affording you the opportunity to stream from your bench or be more selective with free-agent starting pitchers.
Here's hoping all four relievers are more effective than Chad Green, who had a ghastly 16.43 ERA the first month of last season on my team before I finally cut him!