Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus "The Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton along with ESPN Fantasy analysts Jim McCormick and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
1. Which player is most likely to finish ahead of Stephen Curry on the Player Rater during the post-All-Star break run?
McCormick: I'd say Kevin Durant. His elite efficiency rates really well in the percentage categories since they are valued relative to his position pool. Durant could fairly reasonably take over the scoring lead with a hot month, while he contributes sizable advantages in every stat save for steals.
Carpenter: I think James Harden is in the best spot to finish with the biggest late-season run in terms of huge box scores. Obviously, he is among the elite fantasy studs, but he has a couple of things going for him in fantasy terms that the others may lack as the season winds down. First, guys like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and LeBron James have to share the ball on their teams -- Harden doesn't. Second, the Houston Rockets figure to be fighting for a playoff spot or a better seed among the lower teams in the West, so he isn't likely to be rested. In fact, falling out of the race may lead to him focusing solely on stuffing the box scores. I also like Karl-Anthony Towns as a dark-horse candidate.
Pelton: Probably James Harden. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook could certainly do it if the other missed time due to injury, but probably not if both are healthy. And I don't see much room for improvement among the other players in the top 10. A motivated Harden is the best shot.
2. The trade deadline comes at 3 p.m. ET Thursday. Name a player who would benefit greatly if one of the myriad rumors out there becomes reality.
McCormick: There are a number of players who could surge in value given respective rumors, including Houston Rockets big man Clint Capela and Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings. But I'll take Dennis Schroder of the Atlanta Hawks as the key fantasy beneficiary if Jeff Teague is moved. Schroder is currently 21st in usage rate with Teague in the mix, while he's averaged 14.8 points. 8.1 assists and 3.8 boards in 12 games without Teague in the lineup since the start of last season. Schroder would immediately play more than 30 minutes per night in as the ball-dominant distributor on what is still an efficient Atlanta offense. Schroder is a really nice value in season-long leagues and an intriguing ceiling commodity in DFS if Teague is dealt.
Carpenter: I'll toss two big names out there, since the trade buzz has connected both big men to the Boston Celtics' weak frontcourt: Kevin Love and Al Horford. Over the past month, Love ranks below the likes of Boban Marjanovic and Nene Hilario in terms of usage rate (22.0), while Horford comes in behind players like Amar'e Stoudemire and Aron Baynes at 18.8. Both Love and Horford would see a large spike in usage rate with Boston, which would, in turn, boost their fantasy value. I think Love would benefit the most, though, since the Celtics are weak on the glass and he is a prolific rebounder. Plus, Love would move from a Cleveland Cavaliers team that ranks 24th in pace over the past month to a Celtics squad that ranks third (Atlanta Hawks are eighth over that stretch).
Pelton: Clint Capela. Capela has played more than 20 minutes just once in the Rockets' last 10 games. If they can find a taker for Dwight Howard in a deal that doesn't bring in another center like Hassan Whiteside in return, Capela would have the opportunity to play starter-level minutes and would become a nightly double-double threat. He's averaged 12.4 points, 11.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes.
3. Name a player whose fantasy value would take a big hit if one of the trade rumors comes to fruition.
McCormick: Rudy Gay stands to lose value if he's dealt. The Kings lead the league in pace and are seemingly committed to George Karl's fantasy-friendly scheme for the remainder of the season, bolstering the impressive statistical role Gay assume for Sacramento. If Gay were shipped to a contender in need of wing help, like say the Clippers, he'd stand to lose significant usage.
Carpenter: Markieff Morris. This seems pretty obvious. He is averaging 20.6 PPG (17.4 FGA, 5.8 FTA), 7.6 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG and 34.8 MPG in five outings this month. This from a guy who was so far in the doghouse that he was rolling up routine DNP-CDs just a couple of weeks ago. If that isn't the perfect example of showcasing a player for a trade, I don't know what is. Wherever Morris may land, he almost certainly will not get anywhere near that level of game action or touches. That's especially true when it comes to some of the teams that have been connected to him in rumors, like the Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers. Others, like the Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers, would be better for Morris' fantasy value, but the best case is staying on the Phoenix Suns' depleted roster and keeping himself out of interim coach Earl Watson's doghouse.
Pelton: Ryan Anderson could be a valuable pickup for a contender, but if he goes to a better team it's hard to see him being a big part of the offense. Expect his usage and potentially his playing time to go down if he gets traded by Thursday.
4. Zach LaVine edged out Aaron Gordon on Saturday evening in the best dunk contest we have seen in quite a while. Dunk skills aside, which player would you rather have in fantasy leagues the rest of this season?
McCormick: Not to duck the question, but it's really about what you need. If you need boards in bunches, Gordon is your guy, as he's fourth in added value on the glass among power forwards over the past 15 games on the Player Rater. LaVine can help with assists and steals, but there are too many mouths to feed with Shabazz Muhammad, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ricky Rubio for this high-flier to become a consistent producer. If it came down to one roster spot, I'd take the double-double production Gordon offers with his bankable rebounding rates. Any trade talk surrounding Rubio, however, would make LaVine far more intriguing if the Spanish guard were dealt.
Carpenter: I will lean toward Gordon because he is a double-double threat, has a starting gig pretty well locked up and I expect to see a boost in confidence from this 20-year-old after his recently hot play and performance in the dunk contest. LaVine still has plenty of upside even as a reserve, but I will be surprised if he doesn't end up starting down the stretch, be it due to a trade by the Minnesota Timberwolves that opens up a bigger role for him or the Wolves simply turning their aim to the future and developing the 20-year-old. Both should be owned in all formats as the trade deadline nears.
Pelton: Both of them look to be on the upswing now that they're in more appropriate roles -- LaVine playing more at shooting guard, Gordon starting at power forward. Assuming the status quo, I'd lean slightly toward Gordon, who's nearly averaged a double-double as a starter. But all bets are off in the unlikely scenario that the Timberwolves trade Ricky Rubio and hand LaVine the keys to their offense.
5. Karl-Anthony Towns is in his own class among this season's rookie class. Besides KAT, which rookie do you think will have the strongest finish in fantasy terms?
McCormick: I would still say it's Kristaps Porzingis. The hype has cooled a bit given some inconsistent outings over the past several weeks, but even in this recent stretch before the break he netted 11 blocks and two double-doubles in his past three games. There are real risks of some low-floor outings, especially as he hits the wall, but I still find immense value in a player who can provide such elite returns in a coveted and scarce stat like blocks. Any move involving Carmelo Anthony would only add to Porzingis' workload, while he can still reasonably exceed value with Melo going forward.
Carpenter: Give me Porzingis. Like many rookies, he struggled through the middle part of his first season. Call it the "rookie wall" or "getting used to the grind," but I expect him to settle back into things after taking this week off for the All-Star break. It's a short list of players who can score in the mid-teens, hit the glass, block shots and hit 3s, and he already is on it at age 20. I also love the coaching change by the New York Knicks and expect Porzingis to benefit from it as his first season winds down.
Pelton: At some point, the Knicks may want to shut down Carmelo Anthony if they're out of the playoff picture. That would give Kristaps Porzingis a chance to be New York's go-to scorer for an extended period late in the season, which should help him finish an impressive rookie campaign in strong fashion.