Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's John Cregan, Kyle Soppe and Joe Kaiser.
Throughout his first five NBA seasons, Ricky Rubio was all but a shoo-in for at least 10 PPG, 8 APG and 2 SPG. 11 games into his tenure with new head coach Tom Thibodeau, he is averaging career lows: 6.5 PPG, 6.4 APG, 1.5 SPG. Are his days as a viable fantasy player in standard leagues over or is this just a bump in the road?
John Cregan: Even at his best, Rubio has always been a unique case. His lack of confidence in his shot has severely undermined his fantasy value. The bulk of his production comes from only two categories: steals and assists. Last season -- his best season to date -- Rubio was able to climb into the top 40 on the Player Rater by making his outside shooting less of a liability. He posted a career high .529 TS%. He tied his career high in 3-pointers per game (0.8).
Normally, a drop-off like Rubio's would suggest a regression in his shooting. But his dramatic 2016-17 drop-off is across the board ... and it's volume-based. He's playing only about one minute less per game, but he's logging a career low 12.6% usage rate. It's the usage rate that concerns me, because if Rubio doesn't have possession, he can't generate assists. And without elite-level assists, he becomes waiver-wire material.
Is it his early-season elbow injury? Is it a lack of familiarity with Tom Thibodeau's system? Is Rubio feeling the heat from rookie (and some would say PG of the future) Kris Dunn? Is he hurt by the trade rumors?
I'd wager all of the above. Rubio's been hurt and slow to adjust to Thibodeau. He's always been streaky, and now he's playing with a lack of confidence. And because the Timberwolves are struggling as a whole, Rubio is sitting a little more than he used to.
I still think Rubio bounces back. Maybe not as a top-40 player, but top 70 is still within reach.
Kyle Soppe: Rubio's development has been underwhelming in a major way since he dazzled at the 2008 Olympics, and this season has represented even a further step backward. I'm not as optimistic as I once was, but let's not go overboard and write him off as a fantasy-relevant player. First of all ... the man is 26 years old. He's been on our radar for a while, but he still has time.
OK, now on to some metrics. The Wolves are averaging 0.6 more possessions per game this season than last, so while the pace of play isn't elite, it is actually ahead of where it stood last year. As a card-holding member of the Rubio fan club, there is one trend that I'm banking on regressing and allowing Rubio to produce viable fantasy numbers in 2017. His usage was never high, but it has fallen three points in the early going this season. Now, that could be intentional, but when you realize that both he and Kris Dunn are in the bottom 10 in usage among point guards this season, it seems more like a weird stat than a sustainable trend.
Rubio still can't really shoot, and that's a problem, but I see no reason why he can't approach similar per-minute production this season as he has had in years past. He's a man with a very particular set of skills, and if you're hurting for assists and steals, Rubio is a nice buy-low player at this point in the season.
Joe Kaiser: Rubio is a career 36.8 percent shooter, which is remarkably bad considering how many games he's played in, but as mentioned, he's always been a viable fantasy option due to his high assist and steals numbers. What I see right now is that he's struggling shooting more than ever (33 percent) and has lost his confidence, taking a career-low 5.2 shots per game. That, more than age or minutes or anything more worrisome, is the reason why his scoring numbers are down.
Thibodeau likes to play his starters big minutes, and with the rookie Dunn struggling just as badly on the offensive end, I suspect that Rubio could average 31-32 minutes a game by the time the season is over. His numbers will return to normal Rubio levels as soon as his shot starts to fall a little more often and his confidence builds back up.