So who is my No. 1 pick for fantasy football this season?
Well, that's simple: It's a six-way tie for first place! Case closed. Thanks fellas, see you at the draft table.
Wait, what? So my editor tells me that I can't actually have ties in the rankings since, if I'm drafting first, I'll have to make a choice at the table. Argh, those pesky draft rules, always causing headaches! In that case, I'll go with the "least of all evils" approach, selecting Eddie Lacy.
The collective facets of Lacy's game include the least amount of imperfections compared to those of the top draft candidates, and in a year lacking a clear-cut standout, there's merit to opt for the "safe" play at the start. Let's examine those traits individually.
Touchdown potential: Generally speaking with a first-round pick, I want running backs who score touchdowns, and by that I don't mean, "Who scored the most touchdowns last year," but rather which running backs are the ones their teams most trust near the goal line. Lacy's usage -- and effectiveness -- in that regard in his first two NFL seasons stands out. Here are the top 10 in terms of carries inside the opponent's 3-yard line, from 2013-14:
Yes, fellow first-overall candidates Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and arguably DeMarco Murray also reside in this group, but only Charles and Murray had comparably competitive (or better) performance in those categories. And besides, we're assessing check marks in the relevant columns. Lacy earns his.
Receiving ability: For a player of his size -- he's 5-foot-11, 230 pounds, a bowling ball of a back -- Lacy is a remarkably good pass-catcher, gobbling up 42 receptions last season, more than any of the other No. 1-overall candidates except Forte (102), Bell (83) and, if you consider him one, Murray (57). Lacy earns another check, even if he's not the best here. Besides, Lacy's rushing prowess rated him significantly better than Forte.
Sixteen-game schedule: Unlike the aforementioned Bell, Lacy doesn't face a three-game suspension to begin his 2015 season. Granted, had Bell been eligible for all 16, he'd have been my unquestioned No. 1 pick. Alas, he's not. Check for Lacy, but more importantly, an X for Bell.
Age: In the past 20 seasons, more than 50 percent of the top-10 running back seasons (in terms of fantasy points) -- 56 percent, to be exact -- were accrued by those who played the majority of those seasons between the ages of 24 and 27, and Lacy begins the 2015 season aged 25.
Just 25 percent were accrued by those aged 28 or older, and fellow No. 1 overall candidates Charles (28), Arian Foster (29), Lynch (29) and Adrian Peterson (30) all fall within that age range entering 2015. That's not to say that an older player can't produce the greater fantasy season, but in a race this close, you want the prime-age player. Another check for Lacy, and Lynch and Peterson in particular get an X.
Workload: This goes hand in hand with the previous point, in that I'd prefer a prime-age player who hasn't been overworked in recent years. Lacy has 284 and 246 carries, and 319 and 288 total touches, in his past two seasons, respectively. He has 530 carries and 607 total touches for his career.
Now consider some of the competition for the top draft spot: Murray is coming off a 392-carry season, the seventh-largest total in history and above the 370 "warning" threshold that has exhibited diminished performance the subsequent year by a large percentage of the players who have exceeded it. Lynch and Peterson both have more than 2,000 career carries, and Lynch has 896 in the past three seasons combined, the most in the NFL. Forte has 1,566 total touches the past five seasons combined and Foster 1,556, ranking them first and third in the league (LeSean McCoy is second). Given the choice, I'll take the fresher legs, and Lacy gets yet another check in that department.
With the exception perhaps of his age, Lacy might not enjoy a substantial victory margin in any one of these areas. The sum total of his traits, however, grants him the edge in this oh-so-close race to be the top overall fantasy pick in 2015.