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Guidelines for spotting Cinderellas

The 2006 tournament is hours away, and your bracket is still riddled with holes. You know upsets are going to happen. The person with enough smarts -- or luck -- to spot the key Cinderellas stands a good chance of winning the pool … and the envy of other bracketeers.

Of course, advancing a Cinderella is tricky business. Settle on the wrong high-seeded victim and your bracket could collapse in the first weekend.

Fortunately, picking the right underdog isn't all guesswork. In the 21 tourneys of the 64- and 65-team era, Cinderella squads have shared common attributes. When you know what they are, it's a lot easier to sniff out the upsets. Let's examine the factors that cause upsets and identify which long shots in this year's bracket are most likely to spring a surprise.

When is a win an upset?