Here we go again. You could hardly blame anyone associated with the Colorado Rockies if that's what was going through their heads late in the afternoon of June 13 at Wrigley Field.
Up 4-1 on the defending-champion Chicago Cubs, Rockies skipper Bud Black had summoned closer Greg Holland to do what he had done successfully 22 out of 22 times to start the season: earn a save. But then Holland proceeded to walk the bases full with one out in the ninth. The crowd at the friendly confines was on its feet, expecting the kind of finish that has become so prevalent in Chicago the past couple of years. And Holland noticed.
"I enjoyed that," Holland said. "I wish we would had been at home, because that would have been a good thing that was happening. I enjoy big crowds and a nice atmosphere like that."
To understand why that spot might have stirred bad memories for Rockies fans, let's flash back to Aug. 7, 2016. After a season of mild disappointment, the Rockies had put together an 18-10 stretch to climb back to .500. Thanks to the second wild card, Colorado sat just three games behind St. Louis for an NL playoff spot, and of the three other teams closing in on St. Louis, the Rockies owned the best run differential.
That day, Rockies starter Jon Gray was bombed in a loss to Miami. Still, hopes remained high with four interleague games looming against the surging Texas Rangers. Those hopes were stomped out of existence the next three games when the Rangers came from behind each time against the Colorado bullpen to win.
The three straight blown saves proved to be the death knell for Colorado's playoff hopes. They went 20-32 down the stretch and blew 13 of 21 save opportunities, and the bullpen as a group had the second-worst ERA in baseball during that stretch (5.78). The offense led the majors in wOBA during that stretch run, but the run prevention collapsed all around, none in a more discouraging fashion than a bullpen group that struggled with injuries and effectiveness all season.
"Our problem last year was getting to a closer," said Rockies bullpen coach Darren Holmes, who ranks sixth on Colorado's all-time saves list. "It's because we had a bunch of young guys who had big arms, like Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez. Big arms, but young."
So as well as 2017 has started for Colorado, when the closer walks the bases full, it's only natural to feel those old pangs of worry. The only person whose anxiety is really an issue in that spot is Holland. And for a guy who at this time last year was a free agent rehabbing his elbow after Tommy John surgery, this was nothing. Ben Zobrist flied out to shallow left and Jason Heyward struck out.
That made it 23-for-23 for Holland in saves. Not that he cared.
"I don't want to talk about it, really," he said. "As long as we're winning games, that's the only streak I care about."
Once one of the game's dominant closers, Holland appears to be nearing that status once again. While his addition and re-emergence have made his signing perhaps baseball's best offseason move, there are other reasons why the Colorado bullpen has become the turnaround unit in baseball.
The flakiness of bullpens
Forecasting the performance of a relief pitcher is a troublesome thing, so it follows that the volatility of bullpens in general is high. This is why some teams, such as the Cubs, have invested only modestly in their relief pitching. When you pay top dollar, you're doing so because you have a degree of certainty in the investment -- insofar as certainty exists in baseball. That's why the few dominant and dependable relievers in the game make out like bandits when free agency strikes.
As a midmarket club in a bad ballpark for pitchers, the Rockies were never going to get into the premium closer market that was the source of so much action during the last hot-stove season, when Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen signed contracts worth a collective total value of $228 million.
Still, it was clear the Rockies needed to do something. Only three teams blew more saves than Colorado's 28 last season. Their relief WAR ranked 21st -- Colorado's third straight season in the bottom 10 -- but the situational pitching was even worse. Colorado ranked dead last in win probability added by its bullpen for the second time in three years.
Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich made the first move to improve his club's relief fortunes in early November when he hired Black to replace Walt Weiss as the team's manager. Black oversaw a string of strong relief corps in San Diego, proving himself one of the savviest bullpen managers around during an era in which the emphasis on relief pitching exploded.
Despite last season's debacle, Black actually liked Colorado's mix of relievers. Still, while some of those names are the same, their performance has been anything but.
Even if Black had known he would extract such a uniform turnaround from his returning relievers, for the whole thing to come into focus, he needed that ninth-inning guy. While Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee might have the stuff you like in a back-end reliever, over the past five years, the other pitchers currently on the Colorado roster saved a collective 84 games while blowing 73 save opportunities. During that same span and despite missing the entire 2016 season, not to mention pitching injured near the end of his tenure in Kansas City, Holland saved 141 games. He blew 14.
"A lot of it is [the moment never gets too big]," Black said. "That's the characteristic of a great closer, is never panicking and knowing what he has to do to get those last outs. And he's proven to me, live in front of me and the team, that he can do this. We knew that before from his days in Kansas City. The guy's a couple-of-time All-Star. You know his track record, but to see it live is impressive."
Dominance lost and (re)gained
From 2011 to 2014, only Craig Kimbrel put up more reliever WAR than Holland (9.1), per Fangraphs.com. No reliever posted more win probability added (11.54). His ERA over those four seasons was 1.86, and he struck out 12.6 per nine innings as part of one of the most dominant bullpens we've ever seen -- those vicious Royals units featuring Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera.
Holland's elbow problems surfaced in 2015, and while he saved 32 games before going on the disabled list, his underlying numbers weren't right. Ultimately, he watched from the sideline as the Royals won their first championship since 1985. The timing of the injury was terrible, not just because it deprived Holland of his role in the title run, but because it was a platform year. After the World Series, he became a free agent, went unsigned and worked his way back on his own.
Holland finally resurfaced last winter in a showcase for scouts and executives. With his rehab not yet complete, his velocity -- reportedly in the mid-80s -- put teams on the defensive. Few wanted him as a closer. However, in a sport built on relationships, Holland's familiarity with Holmes, a fellow resident of Asheville, North Carolina, and Rockies pitching coach Steve Foster helped convince Bridich that Holland could solve their ninth-inning problems.
"I went and watched him throw and saw him play catch at 140 feet on a line," Holmes said. "I had Tommy John, so I'm really familiar with the surgery and the recovery. And he's with [agent Scott] Boras, and his group does a great job rehabbing his guys.
"And I trust Greg. I asked him, 'How are you?' And he said he felt great, better than he did the previous three years. Once he told me that, I didn't have any reservations about calling it in and putting my name on this guy."
Foster oversaw that great Royals bullpen during its formative years.
"I knew what my eyes had seen when I was with him in Kansas City," Foster said. "And I was willing to put my neck on the line, if you will, and say it's worth the risk. Whether or not it would return to what I had seen, I knew one thing I could trust, and that was the character of the individual."
Holland's velocity has remained at about where it sat during his injury-hampered season of 2015, though it's a lot better than it was during that winter showcase. More importantly -- the lapse in Chicago aside -- his ability to command his pitches is back to where it was.
He has become more reliant on his slider. If the process is different, the results are not. Holland has a 1.14 ERA over his first 25 appearances for Colorado and has struck out 12.2 per nine innings.
Holmes, Foster and Black all agree: The bullpen's about-face came into focus because of Holland.
"There is nothing like having a bona fide ninth-inning guy that everyone trusts," Foster said. "It adds a believability factor, a trust factor. And then it fits everybody else into slots where there is a comfort factor. To me, either you're comfortable or you're not comfortable at the end of a game. A lot of teams don't have that. Here in Colorado, it's been a struggle to have that with consistency. Greg has given us that piece, and it's helped Ottavino, it's helped Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, a lot of guys towards our back end."
All about the group
You can't necessarily get the pulse of a team by spending a couple of days in its clubhouse. All you can do is observe and try not to overextrapolate. That said, there is a strange thing a newbie in the Colorado clubhouse will notice. It's a thing that shouldn't be strange, but it is: These guys really seem to like baseball.
"Our guys are into baseball!" Black said. "They are, man. It's great. If there is a game on, they are usually watching it. I have noticed that, even in our park and around the league. It's like that in other clubhouses, too, but our guys pay attention."
Before and after the games in Chicago, in that glorified closet the Cubs call a visiting clubhouse, the Rockies gathered around the tables and watched baseball, snacking and talking through what they were watching. They related stories from their experiences. One veteran even schooled a younger teammate on the history of the Black Sox, since they were in Chicago and all. The Rockies as a group showed clear signs of being a bunch of baseball junkies, everyone from Ian Desmond to Nolan Arenado to Holland, who fits right in.
"It's like that with good teams in general," Holland said. "You can't really put a number on it, but chemistry goes a long way. I think we've got a good group of guys in the bullpen. Obviously, they are all talented down there, but I think when you mesh well and you enjoy each other's company and you enjoy competing with one another, that adds to it."
"There is nothing like having a bona fide ninth-inning guy that everyone trusts. It adds a believability factor, a trust factor. And then it fits everybody else into slots where there is a comfort factor." Steve Foster, Rockies pitching coach
Even if that's true, it's a trait, not an explanation. However, it does lend more credence to the idea that the Rockies have something pretty cool going on. Whether chemistry or winning comes first, or one breeds the other, Colorado seems to have it.
"We've jelled really well," McGee said. "Everyone just wants to go out there and pitch. No one wants in a certain role or is jealous. All we want to do is go out there and get outs and win baseball games. The feeling out of the bullpen this year has been pretty awesome."
That kind of synergy has some practical implications. A general manager once told me that he thought of his bullpens like fingers on a hand (which might have six, seven or eight fingers, but whatever); each one has its place, and they have to fit together to make a fist. Members of great bullpens seem to complement each other in both personality and skill set. It's something that Holland saw in Kansas City.
"That's another thing that I don't think can be quantified, but I think it makes the whole team better," Holland said. "It makes your defense better. It makes you better at the plate. You're not worried about who is coming through the gates when you've got a one-run lead in the fifth or whatever the situation may be. You're confident in your guys coming in, and that helps you relax."
Part of that coalescence means that relievers have to accept their specific roles, or the lack of specific roles, as the case may be. That's where Black comes in.
"He's got a great feel and understanding for how to manage a game, especially at the end," Foster said. "Who to match up with and such. He and I are discussing that from the sixth inning on. He's been through so many battles and has that pull of experience to draw on. Besides just the numbers, a lot of it's gut for him. He's so fun to work with because he's knowledgeable and he's not an ego guy."
A matter of faith
The bullpen is far from the only reason the Rockies are in first place in a division that right now might feature the National League's three best teams. The rookie-laden starting rotation has been a revelation, throwing to contact and getting deep into games with leads the resurgent bullpen can protect. Still, the fact that the pen can protect that lead has a trickle-down effect to the rest of the roster.
"Our first five wins this year were [close] ballgames," Holmes said. "Our guys get the ball to Holly, and Holly comes in and slams the door. All of a sudden, you're building the confidence of those guys out there on the field. Over the long haul, we haven't had a lot of confidence in our bullpen. But now there is confidence that if we can keep this ballgame right here, we're going to win a ballgame."
That security has not gone unnoticed by Colorado's position players.
"They have been great all year," said DJ LeMahieu, Colorado's second baseman and the NL's defending batting champion. "Once we get the lead, I feel like we're going to win, whether it's in the second inning or the eighth inning. Those guys have done a great job, different guys stepping up at different times."
Colorado's rise has been fueled by near top-to-bottom improvement. The fielders rank seventh in defensive runs saved. The offense, comprised mostly of in-their-prime veterans, hasn't found its full stride yet but has held up well away from Coors Field, a big part of the club's amazing start on the road. Arenado and Charlie Blackmon both rank among the game's top 25 in WAR.
Still, for the Rockies, the gains in other areas could have been offset had Holland and the bullpen remained stuck in 2016 mode. How much better has it been? Well, Colorado has converted 89 percent of its save chances, including the middle relievers, which leads the majors. Remember, last season that figure was 57 percent. They rank second in reliever WAR, up from 21st. And that all-important win probability category? The Rockies have gone from dead last to No. 1.
If it's a matter of faith, the Rockies now have it.
"Early in the season, when we were winning all the one-run games, our bullpen was helping out," McGee said. "I think from there on, everyone believed. Once our hitters started going, too, we just started playing really well. Once everything started clicking, we were on a roll."