(Note: The projections in the piece below have been updated to reflect the four-game suspension for New England Patriots QB Tom Brady, handed down Monday.)
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2015 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of different variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation.
But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2015 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings (found here) and then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Monday, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2015. Tuesday, we'll do the NFC. Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you seeking a little more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Minnesota is No. 1) to the easiest (Atlanta).