In July 2011, Rafael Nadal strolled onto Centre Court at Wimbledon, preparing to play his fifth consecutive final. The streak included two titles, one of them earned in 2008 against Roger Federer, in a magnificent struggle that some call the greatest match of all time. Two years later, Nadal beat Tomas Berdych in much easier fashion.
Then Nadal's luck turned.
The King of Clay hasn't been back to a Wimbledon final in five tries. Four of those years, he was eliminated early in the tournament by players ranked outside the top 100. Nadal's record at Wimbledon is unique, and not in an entirely good way: No player who's ever enjoyed comparable success at any Grand Slam tournament has ever experienced a comparably precipitous downfall at that event.
Is it merely bad luck or bad tennis? Or perhaps the gods of grass finally decided enough and threw a hex over the clay-court demon who had so insolently conquered turf.
"The thing that makes his struggles interesting is that it isn't like Nadal is trying to bring the same clay-court game to Wimbledon," according to Brad Gilbert, an ESPN analyst and former coach of Andre Agassi. "He has a grass-court plan. He's thought it through, and it has worked for him in the past. But not lately."
Gilbert praises Nadal for the way he stands in closer to receive serve on grass than he does on clay. He liked how much more aggressively Nadal serves on grass, and how he resists running around his forehand as often, knowing it leaves too much court undefended. "You can't say Rafa is losing because he hasn't done his homework," Gilbert said.
Some see a psychological component in the King of Clay's transformation from sure-handed commander on grass into a sometimes hesitant rival with a perpetually furrowed brow.
"Maybe all this is a function of age," said Mary Carillo, a Tennis Channel analyst. "This is a guy who gradually wanted more and more control of everything around him -- the way he arranges his bottles, his hair, his routines. But a lot of his opponents at Wimbledon take control of the tennis away from him."
Carillo believes that on clay, the methodical Spanish champ builds points his way, "brick by brick." But at Wimbledon, a far greater number of players are capable of winning with slam-bang tennis. "Two or three swipes of the racket and there's a service break," she said. "That just isn't how Nadal likes to play the game. It makes him jumpy."
The details of Nadal's fails backs up the analysis. The first four of his those matches were outright disasters. In 2012, Nadal was upset in the second round by then No. 100 Lukas Rosol, a bruising ball-striker who rained down massive serves and unanswerable forehands that echoed like heavy cannon under the retractable Centre Court roof.
At the time, it seemed a "stuff happens" moment. But stuff kept happening. In the ensuing years Nadal lost, in succession, to No. 135 Steve Darcis (first round), No. 144 Nick Kyrgios (fourth round) and No. 102 Dustin Brown (round two). Out in 2016 with injury, Nadal's fortunes improved somewhat last year, when he took a tough, overtime five-set loss in the fourth round to No. 26 Gilles Muller.
Those players were all capable of either blasting Nadal (or anyone else) off the court, or playing asymmetrical attacking tennis heavy on slice and net attacks. Bad luck certainly played a role here. Nadal kept drawing exactly the "wrong" kinds of players. Furthermore, they mustered their best tennis despite the due diligence Nadal had performed before Wimbledon.
Imperfect preparation may be one identifiable element in Nadal's dispiriting saga at SW19, especially now. The combination of his age (32), his continuing success at Roland Garros and the toll it takes and satisfaction it renders may take the edge off his desire. It certainly leaves him seeking rest and care for his body before Wimbledon -- so much so that he's willing to forgo all warm-up tournaments and start cold in London. That makes him an ideal patsy for one of those "wrong" opponents.
"Rafa historically has played better with a grass tuneup event," Paul Annacone, Roger Federer's former coach and now a Tennis Channel analyst, wrote in an email. "I believe he is playing an exhibition this week. That will help, but it's not the same thing. That being said, the confidence he must have after winning an 11th French Open must be sky-high."
Annacone believes Nadal, despite being top seed and claiming "high confidence," will be particularly vulnerable during the first week. He has more reason than most to feel that way. Annacone isn't alone in his analysis of Nadal's chances.
"If he navigates through Week 1, he can win it," Carillo said. "It's ridiculous to say the No. 1 player in the world needs a friendly draw, but that's the situation."