No one can possibly predict everything in fantasy football.
This game can change quickly and dramatically. With between 140 and 168 non-kicker skill players being drafted in the majority of standard 10- or 12-team leagues, many players of significant value will slip through the cracks, resulting in a large part of your team's contributions coming from players who seemingly came completely out of nowhere.
Last season was as good an example of this as any. Matt Asiata, Cameron Brate, Quincy Enunwa, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Taylor Gabriel, Cameron Meredith, Ty Montgomery, Dennis Pitta, Adam Thielen and Tyrell Williams provided fantasy owners a minimum of five definitely start-worthy-in-any-mixed-league games apiece, for a combined total of 57 such performances. Not a single one of them was drafted in even 1 percent of ESPN leagues. They were almost complete unknowns, almost universally waiver-wire adds. All 10 players, at some point during the year, wound up on rosters in at least 50 percent of ESPN leagues.
This is why, in addition to your draft preparation, it's a wise move to research several tiers beyond your league's draft pool. Being the first to the free-agent list, or knowing when to prioritize a certain player or to add an extra dollar to your FAAB bid (Free Agent Acquisition Budget system, where player adds are managed in a system much like in a live auction), can give you a substantial advantage over the competition. Your foes might only be researching these deep sleepers for the first time as you scurry to the waiver wire and beat them to the punch.
What follows is my list of 11 deep sleepers for 2017, all of them players who might not -- and probably should not -- be drafted in ESPN standard leagues. This exercise utilizes the literal definition of a sleeper: Value coming from the least expected source.
However, all 11 of them have a reasonably good chance of being relevant names in every fantasy league. If you're in an extremely deep league, they might all matter on draft day. In fact, if you're in a standard 10-team league and employ a preferred strategy of mine to use the final skill-player pick on a wild upside play, then maybe one of these will pique your interest earlier rather than later. I do this because it's critical to know the priority of your cuts in the season's early weeks, so this final pick can serve as a "let's see" with whom you have minimal attachment. If you don't deploy such a strategy, then maybe it's merely your initial "watch list."
To be clear upfront, these are deep sleepers, meaning that you're not going to find Carson Wentz, Kareem Hunt or Zay Jones on this list. They're all well-publicized players being selected in a significant number of ESPN leagues. This list takes things a step deeper, with the price paid being a greater likelihood of player failure (Tyler Gaffney, from the 2016 list, didn't even survive final cuts).
The repeats: From that same 2016 list, Tyler Ervin, TJ Jones and Paul Richardson fit to varying degrees, and with such prediction games, it's not uncommon for them to be one year premature. To expand this year's pool, you can flip back to last year's list if you want to learn more about them.
Matt Breida, RB, San Francisco 49ers: You've read my take on Carlos Hyde, and you've heard all about new coach Kyle Shanahan's push to draft Joe Williams as the team's potential future at the position, but Breida's presence should not be ignored. An undrafted free agent out of Georgia Southern, Breida averaged 8.3 yards per carry in his sophomore and junior years while totaling 17 rushing touchdowns in each, but his numbers slipped to 3.8 and three as a senior, costing him an NFL Scouting Combine invite. However, he excelled at his pro day with a 4.37 40 time that was as quick as T.J. Logan's running back-leading number at the Combine. Additionally, his SPARQ score was tops at the position in this year's class. The 49ers have been particularly impressed by his receiving ability, which he practically never flashed in college, and Hyde's injury history has been well-documented. Breida will probably begin the year fourth (or maybe fifth) on the depth chart, but he has a higher ceiling than much of his competition.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Like Breida, Carson is likely to begin the season fourth on his team's depth chart, but also like Breida, Carson enjoys the advantage of the top dogs on said depth chart having checkered injury histories. Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy and C.J. Prosise combined for just 20 games played last season, and Rawls and Prosise have already missed time due to injury this preseason. Carson has capitalized by stringing together back-to-back impressive preseason performances. He is an athletic type whose running style has been compared by his own coach, Pete Carroll, to that of Rawls, and the seventh-round pick elevated his stock by putting up remarkably good combine numbers: 10-foot-10 broad jump, 37-inch vertical and 4.58 40 time. The 2017 Seahawks might look a lot like the 2015-16 models, where multiple players make multiple starts at running back, and Carson's presence and skill set shouldn't be overlooked in the competition.
Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago Bears: Cohen was the Bears' starter in their second preseason game with Jordan Howard (eye abrasion) sidelined, posting three runs of 16 yards or greater on his first seven attempts alone and showing the kind of shiftiness that earned him three-time MEAC Offensive Player of the Year honors while at North Carolina A&T. Cohen also brings contrast in running style to Howard while adding a receiving element that Howard is missing. At the very least, the fourth-rounder should factor on third downs initially. Plus, who doesn't love a good nickname? Cohens is called "Human Joystick" for his remarkable ability to make quick cuts.
Bruce Ellington, WR, Houston Texans: A trendy sleeper one year ago, Ellington tore his hamstring in the preseason, costing him the 2016 season. Even beyond his extensive injury history, he's a difficult sell because he's already in his third organization this month. He had a roughly 24-hour stint as a member of the New York Jets, sandwiched by the 49ers and, most recently, the Texans. Still, Ellington's pass-catching ability out of the slot makes him a potentially good fit for Houston, especially while Will Fuller V (collarbone) is sidelined. Ellington flashed astonishing chemistry with Tom Savage in the second preseason game, and while the Texans' quarterback situation is largely up in the air, that's something that warrants tracking as the team settles its spots behind No. 1 option DeAndre Hopkins.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, New England Patriots: Hey, I've got a great idea. Let's pick a quarterback who has absolutely zero chance of starting a game as long as the man ahead of him on the depth chart is healthy! No, this isn't to predict that Tom Brady will get injured or perform so poorly that a switch becomes necessary, but the guy enters 2017 at the age of 40, so it's curious that we're all so confident that he'll be his rock-solid usual self. Brady is angling to become the first quarterback in NFL history to start 16 games in a season played entirely at the age of 40 (Brett Favre was 27 days shy of his 40th birthday entering 2009 when he started 16 en route to a 283.6 fantasy point season). Coach Bill Belichick surely knows this and has probably already considered the team's future at the position at great length. But more importantly, have we considered the possibility that another NFL team -- the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos or Jacksonville Jaguars, to name three -- could find itself in a situation so desperate that it might open up the draft pick cupboard to acquire Garoppolo before the Oct. 31 deadline? This 25-year-old hung in there in his only complete NFL regular-season game in Week 1 last season and was outstanding before getting hurt in his second start in Week 2, so he'd be an instant add in all formats if ever granted another start anywhere.
Rico Gathers, TE, Dallas Cowboys: Always keep an eye on players in the concussion protocol, as Gathers has been since Aug. 15, but if he can make a quick enough recovery for Week 1, he could see a handful of snaps as the Cowboys try to get a read on his potential to be Jason Witten's eventual successor. A 6-foot-6, 285-pound former basketball player who shined working with Tony Romo on the scout team late last season, Gathers is a massive target who could quickly adapt to a red zone role, given the opportunity. Gathers managed a score in each of the Cowboys' first two preseason games, and health willing, he should break camp second or third on the depth chart.
Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams: Hear me out. Yes, Goff's 2016 tape was awful, and by all rights, he won't and shouldn't be drafted in ESPN standard leagues. However, seven bad games shouldn't condemn his NFL career. The Rams are committed to him as their starter and continually talked up his future potential during the offseason. New coach Sean McVay and new quarterbacks coach Greg Olson give Goff a fresh start in an offense more conducive to passing. Goff added some bulk while being the latest of the slew of quarterbacks to work with guru Tom House during the offseason, and the Rams acquired him an immensely talented receiver in Sammy Watkins who significantly upgrades Goff's options. None of it guarantees better quarterback play, but Goff now has a lot of factors aligned in his favor that weren't present in 2016, making him an intriguing speculative pick.
Mack Hollins, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: When the Eagles traded Jordan Matthews earlier this month, everyone's immediate reaction was that it signaled Nelson Agholor's ascension to slot-receiver duties. What if it merely meant a greater opportunity for likely No. 4-to-start-the-season Hollins, including possible snaps out of the slot? Hollins, who averaged 20.6 yards per catch in his final three years at North Carolina, brings plenty of speed and yards after the catch, things that could prove beneficial to Carson Wentz in his second year as the Eagles' starting quarterback. While it's probable that Hollins is more of a 2018 prospect than one this season, let's not forget that projected starters Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith are injury risks.
Aldrick Robinson, WR, San Francisco 49ers: It's a hunch on my part, but I liked Robinson's move from Atlanta to San Francisco this offseason, following coach Shanahan. Robinson was buried on the Falcons' depth chart, but with the 49ers, he'll face considerably less competition. In fact, he's arguably the most talented of the candidates to start across from Pierre Garcon. Robinson is in a likely head-to-head battle with Marquise Goodwin, who has fewer yards per catch (15.9 to Robinson's 18.6) and 20-yard catches (9 to 15), along with an equal number of 40-yard catches (6 apiece) in 10 more total targets than Robinson in their NFL careers. Robinson stood out when Julio Jones was sidelined in Week 15 last season, totaling 15.1 PPR fantasy points, so it seems foolish to limit him to a situational role.
Chester Rogers, WR, Indianapolis Colts: No one wants to go near the Colts' offense right now with chatter increasing regarding Andrew Luck missing regular-season time, but the sleeper game is often a matter of zagging where others zig. Rogers seems to have a leg up on the No. 3 receiver race, with Phillip Dorsett rumored to be on the trading block and Kamar Aiken doing nothing during preseason. The second-year undrafted free agent put together a handful of decent performances in the role as a rookie. Luck or no Luck, the Colts' offense will be pass-heavy with a 34-year-old running back in Frank Gore, minimal depth behind him and an offensive line that will struggle to open running lanes.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans: When NFL teams consider heir apparents at skill positions, why not merely clone their predecessors? Smith, a third-round pick, has been frequently compared to new teammate Delanie Walker. Smith is a capable run-blocker who brings plenty of yards after the catch, and his combine numbers and SPARQ score were competitive with the "big names" among the rookie tight-end class, like O.J. Howard, Evan Engram and David Njoku. The learning curve for a rookie tight end might be long, but Smith finds himself in a great situation on an up-and-coming offense.