His problem? There's no rush for them to do that, since they have him under contract for the relative bargain prices of $21.125 million, $22 million and $21 million over the next three years respectively. Of that money, only $6 million of his 2019 salary is guaranteed.
Indianapolis should have no reason to move on from the 29-year-old Luck before this contract expires, and it is likely to extend him in either the 2020 or 2021 offseason. But the team is in control here, and if something were to unexpectedly turn south, the Colts could escape this deal with ease. They'd incur only $6.4 million in dead money if they cut him after 2019, and none if they cut him after 2020.
Allen still has his skeptics, as questions remain about his ability to develop NFL-caliber accuracy. With his size and speed, can he fashion a career that mirrors that of Cam Newton? Questions still to be answered, and as with 2018 draft classmates Mayfield and Darnold he can't be extended until after 2020. So we will all find out together.
The 2019 season is important for Trubisky, as a year from now the Bears will be deciding whether to exercise that 2021 option or begin looking elsewhere for their quarterback of the future. A second season with Matt Nagy as his coach should be helpful to Trubisky's development, but if he flops, Chicago isn't committed beyond 2020.
This situation is crowded and complicated, so bear with me. As you can see, the monetary difference between the first pick and the 15th is fairly significant. Should Haskins flop, Washington could escape the deal in two or three years with little pain or keep him as a cheap backup. Haskins, like all first-round picks, has a contract that includes a team option for the fifth year. If he proves to be a capable starter, he should be around a while. If not ... well, unfortunately, Washington fans have seen that movie before.
The main problem in Washington is that the team is still married to quarterback Alex Smith, who broke his leg in Week 11 last season and might not be able to play again. Smith's contract calls for fully guaranteed salaries of $15 million this year and $16 million in 2020, and cutting him after this season would bring a $32.2 million cap hit. It's certainly possible Smith and the team could reach some kind of injury settlement, but again -- the next two years' salaries are fully guaranteed, so why would Smith agree to take less than $31 million in any kind of settlement?
The team would have to figure out some creative restructuring of this deal to secure any kind of cap relief in 2019 or 2020. As for Case Keenum, he has a fully guaranteed $7 million salary this year, but the Broncos are paying half of it as a condition of the trade that sent him to Washington. So Washington is on the hook for only $3.5 million for Keenum, and that's what it would absorb on its cap if he were cut. And finally, Colt McCoy is signed through 2019 and has $2 million in guaranteed salary, which means it would cost the team $2 million against its cap to cut McCoy. Look for Washington to try to trade either Keenum or McCoy this summer.
Carr's 2019 salary of $19.9 million became fully guaranteed in February, but there's nothing guaranteed beyond this season, and the dead-money hit if the Raiders cut or trade him next offseason is a manageable $5 million.
What this means is that this is the big season for Carr and his future with the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders. They didn't draft a quarterback last month, which basically ensures that Carr gets to be the starter in 2019. But if he struggles and Jon Gruden falls in love with a quarterback in the 2020 draft, it wouldn't be hard for the Raiders to make the switch.
The bulk of Garoppolo's guarantee came in the form of a $28 million roster bonus the team paid in 2018. His $17.2 million salary for 2019 became fully guaranteed April 1 of this year, but none of the remaining three years carries any guarantee at this point. The way the 49ers do their contracts, they have until April 1, 2020, to make a decision on Garoppolo, because that's when $15.7 million of his $23.8 million 2020 salary becomes fully guaranteed.
Because they used a huge roster bonus and only a $7 million signing bonus, the Niners are well protected against dead-money charges -- cutting Garoppolo after this season would cost them only $4.2 million against next year's cap. The 49ers are the masters of the team-friendly veteran contract, which gives them all kinds of flexibility. They love Garoppolo, sure, but he has made only 10 NFL starts and is coming off a torn ACL. If he flops, they can look elsewhere without any problems.
The reigning league MVP is not eligible to talk extension with his team until after the 2019 season, but it's impossible to imagine a circumstance under which he's not in Kansas City's long-term plans.
The reason he's behind Trubisky and the 2018 first-rounders in this tier is because this is not a value-judgment exercise about who's better or whose future looks the brightest. This is an assessment of how committed each team is to its starter based on the cold, hard facts of the contracts.
And the fact is, in the ludicrously unlikely event that the Bears and Chiefs both wanted to cut their quarterbacks next offseason, Kansas City's dead-money penalty of $5.226 million would be far less than Chicago's dead-money penalty of $9.237 million. Ergo, contractually, the Bears are more married to Trubisky than the Chiefs are to Mahomes, who was drafted eight picks later.
19. Houston Texans
Starter: Deshaun Watson | Signed through: 2020
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 6
Contract: Four-year, $13.854 million, fully guaranteed contract signed in May 2017. It includes a $8.216 million signing bonus and a team option for a fifth year in 2021.
Rinse and repeat what was written about Trubisky and Mahomes. Watson is Houston's guy, for sure, at this point, but he can't be extended until next offseason at the earliest. He was pick No. 12 in 2017, so his contract lags behind that of No. 2 pick Trubisky and No. 10 pick Mahomes. And fifth-year option prices are lower for players picked outside the top 10 than they are for players picked inside the top 10.
The dead-money hit for the Texans if they decided they didn't want Watson anymore after this season would be $4.408 million, and they'd still owe him his fully guaranteed $1.177 million salary in 2020. Again, fantasyland stuff, but not all of these situations work out.
T-20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Starter: Jameis Winston | Signed through: 2019
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: T-No. 3
Contract: Fully guaranteed $20.922 million 2019 salary on the fifth-year option, exercised in April 2018, from his 2015 rookie deal.
I'm a Bruce Arians believer, so I'm predicting big things for Winston this season. But on the off chance ol' Bruce can't help Jameis solve his pesky problem of handing the ball to the opposing defense, the Bucs are free and clear after this season. As long as they don't extend his contract in the meantime.
T-20. Tennessee Titans
Starter: Marcus Mariota | Signed through: 2019
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: T-No. 3
Contract: Fully guaranteed $20.922 million 2019 salary on the fifth-year option, exercised in April 2018, from his 2015 rookie deal.
Remember when Winston and Mariota got drafted and people said stuff like, "They'll always be connected." Wow, did that turn out to be true. They're next to each other literally every time we do a list like this.
Mariota hasn't shown an ability to stay consistently healthy, and Ryan Tannehill is a better backup option than the Titans had last season. You wonder about Mariota's leash with a coaching staff that didn't draft him.
22. Los Angeles Rams
Starter: Jared Goff | Signed through: 2020
Tier: On the verge of commitment | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Four-year, $27.938 million, fully guaranteed contract signed in June 2016, plus a 2020 team option worth $22.783 million that was exercised in May 2019.
The fifth-year options on 2016 rookie deals are guaranteed only for injury until the start of the 2020 league year. That means, if Goff is healthy and the Rams don't want him after 2019, they can rescind the option and make him a free agent at no cost to themselves.
Realistically, Goff is in line for a multiyear extension that would supplant the 2020 option year and keep him in Los Angeles for the long term. And the Rams have a little bit of history of doing those extensions early, as they did with former first-round picks such as Todd Gurley II and Robert Quinn, each of whom got extended in the summer before his fourth season. So watch out for a possible Goff deal this offseason that would move him into a different tier.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Starter: Carson Wentz | Signed through: 2020
Tier: On the verge of commitment | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Four-year, $26.676 million, fully guaranteed contract signed in May 2016, plus a 2020 team option worth $22.783 million that was exercised in May 2019.
The Eagles want Wentz around for the long term as well, but his health history likely means they'll wait until after the 2019 season to talk about an extension. As the Rams do with Goff, the Eagles have the right to rescind the option and move on after 2019 as long as Wentz is healthy. But if he's healthy, it seems extraordinarily unlikely that they would do that.
24. Baltimore Ravens
Starter: Lamar Jackson | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 7
Contract: Four-year, $9.472 million contract signed in June 2018. It includes $8.055 million in full guarantees, of which $4.968 million was a signing bonus, and a team option for a fifth year in 2022.
Jackson sits behind the three 2017 first-rounders even though he was drafted a year later. This is because he was the 32nd pick and his contract is therefore much smaller and not fully guaranteed. The dead-money hit for Baltimore if it cuts Jackson after this season would be $4.180 million, less than what it would be for Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson, all of whose contracts are fully guaranteed.
Baltimore is all-in on Jackson, obviously building a speed-based, run-first offense around his unique skill set. If it doesn't work, the dead-money penalties two offseasons from now aren't too severe, and his contract isn't even fully guaranteed. Of all the 2018 first-rounders except Josh Rosen, he's on the most contractually shaky ground.
25. Carolina Panthers
Starter: Cam Newton | Signed through: 2020
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 9
Contract: Five-year, $103.8 million extension signed in June 2015, including $31 million guaranteed at signing.
Newton is coming back from his own shoulder issues, which casts at least some doubt on his short- and long-term future in Carolina. Contractually, the Panthers are in an excellent spot here, as Newton is guaranteed no money in either of the two remaining years of his contract and scheduled to earn just $16.2 million in salary this year and $18.6 million in 2020.
The Panthers would carry just $8.5 million in dead money if they were to cut Newton before the 2019 season, and just $2 million if they cut him after it. Assuming he bounces back healthy and performs well this season, Newton will be in line for an extension next summer. But as with Luck, the contract means the team is in control.
26. Miami Dolphins
Starter: Josh Rosen (projected) | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 5
Contract: Four-year, fully guaranteed $17.598 million contract signed in May 2018 when he was drafted by the Cardinals. It includes a $10.878 million signing bonus and a team option for a fifth year in 2022.
This is the steal of the century for the Dolphins if Rosen turns out to be a starter. Arizona has already paid the signing bonus, which means Miami owes him only about $2.08 million a year for the next three years. And sure, it's fully guaranteed, but who cares? Owner Stephen Ross makes that kind of money in concession sales on one sweltering Saturday at the Miami Open tennis tournament.
The commitment is so light, Miami could bench Rosen for Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or draft a QB in 2020 and not feel it. Best-case scenario, Rosen plays like the top-10 pick he is and the team picks up his fifth-year option in 2022.
27. Los Angeles Chargers
Starter: Philip Rivers | Signed through: 2019
Tier: Vet in contract year | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Four-year, $83.25 million contract signed in August 2015, including $37.5 million guaranteed at signing.
Rivers gets $11 million in non-guaranteed salary this year, plus a $5 million roster bonus that has already been paid. He has no contract beyond 2019, though it seems likely he and the team will negotiate an extension at some point this summer.
Rivers is 37 and coming off a 2018 season that saw him throw 32 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions and complete 68.3 percent of his passes. Unless he wants to hang 'em up sometime soon, there's no reason to think the Chargers are about to be done with him.
28. New England Patriots
Starter: Tom Brady | Signed through: 2019
Tier: Vet in contract year | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Two-year, $41 million extension signed in February 2016, including $28 million guaranteed at signing.
Brady has $14 million in non-guaranteed salary coming this year, plus another $1 million in per-game roster bonuses if he plays all 16. There's a decent chance the Patriots add a year or two and a hefty signing bonus to Brady's deal this offseason, but he turns 42 in August, which puts him in uncharted quarterback-age territory.
He's not a guy we should doubt, but we also can't know for sure how much longer he plans to play. Whatever happens or doesn't happen with his contract this summer will be telling.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Starter: Andy Dalton | Signed through: 2020
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 6
Contract: Six-year, $96 million extension signed in August 2014, including $17 million guaranteed at signing.
All of the guarantees in Dalton's contract have long been paid, so his $16 million salary this year and his $17.5 million 2020 salary are NFL funny money. The contract was signed long enough ago that Cincinnati isn't even carrying dead signing bonus money. The Bengals could cut Dalton today and not owe him another penny.
Obviously, they're not going to do that, but the fourth-round pick of NC State's Ryan Finley by a team that just hired a young, QB-focused coach is a mild eyebrow-raiser. If Finley shows enough development this season -- or if the Bengals bottom out and get a super-high pick in next year's draft -- they could decide to show Dalton the door as soon as next offseason.
30. Denver Broncos
Starter: Joe Flacco | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 7
Contract: Three-year, $66.4 million extension signed with Baltimore in March 2016, including $44 million guaranteed at signing.
As with Dalton in Cincinnati, Flacco has no more guaranteed money on his contract. The Broncos can keep him if they want and pay him $18.5 million this year, $20.25 million in 2020 and $24.25 million in 2021, but they also could cut him at any time and owe him nothing.
They drafted Missouri's Drew Lock in the second round, so the clock is ticking and Flacco is under pressure to perform and hold off the rookie. Kind of like he was in Baltimore last year, and you can see how that worked out.
31. New York Giants
Starter: Eli Manning | Signed through: 2019
Tier: Vet in contract year | Ranking in tier: No. 4
Contract: Four-year, $84 million extension signed in September 2015, including $36.5 million guaranteed at signing.
If you don't know where things stand with Manning and the Giants, you just haven't been paying attention to NFL offseason news. The Giants say they're committed to Manning as their starter for 2019, but they also drafted Duke's Daniel Jones sixth overall, so it's clear they're not committed to the 38-year-old Manning for very much longer.
He has had no talks with the team about an extension, and it's possible, if he and/or the team struggle, he could cede the starting job to Jones at some point during the season, as Kurt Warner did to him in 2004. The end of the Manning era in New York is nigh. The remaining question is whether he gets (or even wants) an opportunity to play somewhere else in 2020.
32. Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Dak Prescott | Signed through: 2019
Tier: On the verge of commitment | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Four-year, $2.7 million contract signed in 2016, plus a $1.305 million performance-based escalator that raised his 2019 salary from $720,000 to $2.025 million.
Prescott was in the same draft as Goff and Wentz, but he was a fourth-round pick. Only first-round contracts have the fifth-year option, which means Prescott is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season. The Cowboys have been very public about their desire to extend Prescott's deal this summer, and there's no reason to doubt that they will.