Expectations are an incredible burden, and Barangay Ginebra head coach Tim Cone knew as much.
Days after the blockbuster trade that sent Christian Standhardinger to the defending PBA Philippine Cup champions in exchange for Greg Slaughter last March, the two-time Grand Slam mentor -- perhaps in an effort to temper forecasts -- spoke about unfounded assumptions that the Gin Kings would immediately win it all again and remarked how securing a title is not as simple as adding a piece to the puzzle.
"That's an easy trap to fall into. And that's where you have to be careful and learn how to manage your expectations," Cone told reporters present in the TV5 studios after the PBA Press Corps Awards Night last March 9.
"Yeah, we're coming off a couple championships and yeah, we've got Christian to a team that won without Greg," he continued. "On paper, we should be competing for that championship. But again, on paper and getting out on the floor are two hugely different things. So that's going to be our challenge."
Ginebra grappled with that problem but failed to find a fix in the 2021 All-Filipino conference, where the team struggled right off the bat and sputtered through the elimination round with a 4-7 record before managing to squeak through the playoffs by winning the battle for the eighth and final spot against Phoenix.
There, the Gin Kings ended their campaign the same way they began it: with a double-digit loss. Over two months after starting off on the wrong foot with a 19-point loss to NLEX, their title defense ended in a whimper via a 13-point defeat at the hands of a fancied TNT team that barreled past Cone's wards to claim their 11th win in 12 games and, in the process, avenge a heartbreaking loss in last year's finals to this very same Ginebra team.
Some of the blame was placed on Cone, who willingly accepted blame following their exit from the tournament, while others pointed a finger at Standhardinger, whose play significantly dipped as he put on the Ginebra jersey for the first time.
But surmising where the problems are rooted without delving into the finer aspects is an easy task, especially if scapegoats are readily available.
It's not an inquisitive approach, though, and it often overlooks certain factors that actually contributed to the fall while unnecessarily highlighting unrelated circumstances. Certain criticisms lobbed at Cone's offense -- which, by the way, hasn't really been used in the purest triangle form in half a decade -- or at Standhardinger's supposed failure to adjust are, to a degree, inaccurate.
So let's use figures. Numbers don't lie, after all.
(Editor's note: Numbers are courtesy of Stats by Ryan on DribbleMedia.com, a collection of advanced stats for the PBA that uses up-to-date totals and formulas from both NBA.com/Stats and Basketball Reference, as well as other independent hoops websites.)
Offense
Ginebra's efficiency in 2020, which was covered in our preseason piece, did not carry over into the new season. The team scored the third-lowest points again (83.1), but the offensive rating topped out at 95.1 after 11 elimination round games, a mark just behind Blackwater and Rain or Shine in the bottom three.
The Gin Kings shooting a fourth-best 41.1 percent from the field during that 11-game stretch belied the inefficiency they played with all conference long. Not really a team that fired a lot from long range (25.2, second-lowest), Ginebra more often than not failed to make good on the shots that it did put up from deep and only hit a third-worst 27.8 percent. It also did not put a lot of pressure at the rim and attempted the second-lowest free throws (17.3) while making them at a subpar 65.8 percent clip (10th).
All that added up to a true shooting percentage (TS%) -- or a measure of total shooting efficiency accounting for the cumulative value of field goals, three-pointers, and free throws -- of 48.1, only good for ninth, and a steep drop from the third-best 53.4 TS% they posted in 2020.
Spacing was a chief issue. Opposing teams collapsed and packed the paint against Standhardinger (14.2 points on 47.5 TS%, below league average), and even more so when the Fil-German center shared the floor with Japeth Aguilar. In theory, the pairing works on offense since Aguilar can extend his range to the free throw line and beyond, but he didn't do a lot of floor-spacing and missed his three attempts from deep in eight games.
Standhardinger's limitations on offense compounded the problems, but it's also a systemic problem because Ginebra, for some reason, went away from its other shooters this conference. In 2020, six players logged more than 15 minutes a game and attempted more than two threes a game; this year, only LA Tenorio, Scottie Thompson and Stanley Pringle remained on that list as Prince Caperal, Arvin Tolentino and Jared Dillinger failed to get consistent minutes.
Tenorio, despite baseless claims by pundits, was efficient and logged 42/37.3/76.5 shooting splits for a 54.5 TS% -- first among players who attempted more than six threes a game. Thompson (37.5 percent on four attempts) was surprisingly steady, while Pringle (32.7 percent on five attempts) made teams pay from time to time. That's just not enough volume to unclog the paint, though.
The drop in assisted shots is also telling. Ginebra only recorded an assist percentage of 59.6 percent, which rates at sixth in the league. Per Dribble Media's per-conference database since the 2019 Philippine Cup, the Gin Kings have not ranked lower than second in that department.
Defense
Ginebra couldn't compensate for its bad offense through its defense, which was usually stout and held up fine before this conference. This team has never really been a squad that gets a lot of steals and blocks, but some advanced numbers indicate a regression on that end.
After posting a third-best defensive rating in Clark last year, this year's Ginebra allowed teams to score 101.4 points per 100 possessions, a bottom-five mark.
Another stat uncovers more of their woes. In 2020, the Gin Kings' opponents posted an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) -- or an improved version of FG% that takes into account the additional value of three-point shots -- of 45.7 percent, which was the second-best mark in the league. This year, that figure slipped to 47.8 eFG% after the first 11 games, which is the third-worst mark behind Terrafirma and Blackwater. That's simply bad company to be in if you're Ginebra.
Standhardinger was one of the bigger culprits; in terms of defensive box/plus minus (DBPM), or a box-score based metric that attempts to measure a player's contribution on defense, the 32-year-old center's -1.29 rating ranked last among six Ginebra players who logged at least 15 minutes a game. He's never been an elite defensive anchor who blocks a lot of shots, but he didn't make up for it with activity in passing lanes this year (0.6 steals compared to 1.3 last year).
Ginebra, though, could do better in scheming around Standhardinger. Cone deduced it himself in an earlier piece this conference, where he said, "It's not only about Christian fitting into the system and his teammates, but about understanding what we can do to fit the system to Christian and how his teammates can help him along." He'll never carry a defense like Aguilar does, but there's still some potential and capability to switch or hound smaller defenders -- if he gets over certain issues in reads, activity and recovery, that is.
Will Ginebra ever bounce back? Of course. A somewhat similar precedent for this situation actually exists; in 2019, the team still fell short of the Commissioner's Cup title even after dealing for Pringle during the midseason tournament. The Gin Kings, of course, ended up winning the title the following conference. There's absolutely no guarantee that the same will happen this year, but teams loaded with talent will always figure something out sooner rather than later. A certain level of patience should be exercised.