The ALCS between the Indians and Blue Jays boasts the two best remaining parks for offense, along with some weak pitching. Expect some fireworks and plan accordingly in your DFS lineups. If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @DerekCarty.
Things to Watch For and Consider
While the Rogers Centre has more of a reputation as a hitter’s park, Progressive Field is far and away the most friendly environment left in the playoffs for offense.
That’s not to say the Rogers Centre isn’t hitter-friendly, though, as it is certainly more so than either of the NLCS parks.
While Toronto has much stronger pitching with its top four starters, the Indians have the best bullpen left in the playoffs. The Blue Jays have the worst.
A big part of Cleveland’s bullpen’s success, however, is dominant lefty Andrew Miller, who the team has been using at any point in the game if it’s an important spot. Considering how right-handed the Blue Jays lineup is, it should help to neutralize Miller a bit.
Cleveland Indians
Pitchers
Corey Kluber is the best pitcher in this series and perhaps the best pitcher left in the playoffs, non-Kershaw division. While conditions will favor hitting and the Blue Jays have a slew of potent hitters, if anyone can overcome that, it’s the Klubot. He’ll hold the platoon advantage against all of Toronto's most dangerous bats, and the strikeout upside against them will be high. I’d prefer him in a potential Game 5 in the Rogers Centre to Game 1 in Progressive, though.
As much as people want Trevor Bauer to be something more, he’s average -- just plain old average. Sadly, plain old average will not play well in Progressive against the best remaining offense in the playoffs.
While Josh Tomlin’s fly ball tendencies will help him a bit against the Blue Jays, as will getting away from Progressive for Game 3, he’s just not a guy I’d consider too much. Those flies could easily turn into home runs, especially since there will be so many of them given his high rate of balls put into play.
Mike Clevinger is easily the worst pitcher left in a playoff rotation. If he’s not needed in relief in Games 1-3, he’s likely to draw the start in Game 4. Do not play him.
Hitters
On a two-game slate, the shallow positions are always tough to fill. Francisco Lindor would fit the bill at shortstop, particularly in whatever game J.A. Happ pitches since Lindor projects to hit lefties considerably better than righties. I would also be a big fan of Lindor in the matchup against Marco Estrada because Lindor’s ground ball tendencies will play well against Estrada’s fly ball ones. Plus, Estrada is the easiest Toronto pitcher to steal against.
Jason Kipnis could similarly fill that shallow position need. He’ll be the slate’s top option against any of the Toronto righties, and I’ll be most likely to play him in whatever game my preferred value second baseman (Chase Utley) has a tough matchup.
Rajai Davis should hit leadoff with the platoon advantage against Happ, but Happ is firmly neutral in terms of allowing steals, and catcher Russell Martin is good at preventing them. Davis could still be a value on FanDuel, but he’s likely to be overpriced on DraftKings.
I love Mike Napoli against lefties, and he could be a good option against Happ. While Progressive is better for hitting than the Rogers Centre overall, the Rog is better for right-handed home runs, which is Napoli’s game.
Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers
I’m a bigger fan of Marco Estrada than most as I consider him to be a much better pitcher than this season's 4.64 xFIP suggests. He has a legitimate ability to prevent hits -- a skill that most pitchers don’t possess to any significant degree -- but I have him projected as the best in all of baseball. Going into Progressive Field will hurt, though, and the Indians don’t present a lot of strikeout potential. He’s fine for GPPs, but I’d stay away in cash games, especially since he lines up on the same slate with the true aces.
I’m just not a fan of J.A. Happ. He’s pitched well over his head all year, and he’s always overpriced. Especially in a Game 2 matchup in Progressive, I just can’t see how you consider him outside of GPPs, even on a two-game slate.
Marcus Stroman hasn’t started since the wild-card game, so he’ll be plenty rested. We’ll have to hope he's not too rested, but he is the most appealing Blue Jays pitcher this series. He’ll throw Game 3 in the preferable Rogers Centre, although facing the Indians is obviously not quite ideal.
Aaron Sanchez should draw Game 4 at home in the Rogers Centre, where (as will be the case for Stroman in Game 3), the temperatures could be just low enough to keep the roof open -- in the low-to-mid-60s. That certainly would help pitching a bit. I am grasping at straws a little here, though, as this series really isn’t the one to target for pitching.
Hitters
Toronto has the best offense left in the playoffs, this series takes place in the two best hitters’ park left in the playoffs and the Indians have some of the worst pitching left in the playoffs. Expect big, frequent offensive outbursts. Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista will be elite (and obviously so) against Tomlin and Clevinger. They’ll be elite (and less obviously so) against Tomlin. They could even be sneaky against Kluber.
With Devon Travis dealing with a knee injury and missing Games 2 and 3 of the ALDS, Ezequiel Carrera was used in the leadoff spot. I love his speed if he gets that opportunity against Clevinger, who is not only a weak pitcher but extremely susceptible to stolen bases. Trevor Bauer is susceptible as well, to a lesser extent. If Travis returns and is healthy, he could be a dark horse candidate for a steal against Clevinger. Just keep in mind that catcher Roberto Perez has an elite arm.
I mentioned earlier how shallow positions can be tough to fill on short slates, and if you don’t go with Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki could be a good option as well, especially considering that the Indians' pitching is much weaker than Toronto’s.