It's hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it's a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team's future or a blockbuster trade, we'll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Jump to biggest deals:
Alonso to BAL | Schwarber to PHI
Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR
Braves nab Yaz on two-year deal
The deal: Atlanta Braves sign outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to a two-year, $23 million contract that includes a club option for a third year
Grade: B-
The Braves didn't need a major overhaul in the outfield, but Yastrzemski represents an upgrade to the overall position group. He's a versatile left-handed hitter who will ostensibly bump veteran Michael Siani out of a depth role on the 40-man roster.
The deal feels like a mild overpay given Yastrzemski's age (he turns 36 next August), the two-year commitment and the Braves' payroll outlook. Atlanta still has room to play with under the first luxury tax threshold (around $22 million, according to Cot's Contracts) but they still need a starting shortstop and more pitching, so things could get cozy pretty quick.
That said, you like the options that new Atlanta manager Walt Weiss will have at his disposal, especially if the Braves find a solution at short that would shift Mauricio Dubon into the super-utility role for which he's best suited. The Braves would have Yastrzemski, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuna Jr., Jurickson Profar and Eli White as a core outfield rotation.
If you extend it further, Yastrzemski and Profar could log DH time, as would catcher Drake Baldwin, who shares his position with Sean Murphy, and maybe even first baseman Matt Olson, with Profar filling at first to give Olson a break. And of course, Dubon can fill in pretty much anywhere. It's a deep and versatile position group with a healthy blend of lefty, righty and switch-hitters.
The concern would be a sharp decline for Yastrzemski, as can certainly happen with a mid-30s veteran. He has seen a mild drop in sprint speed already, though he remains a canny baserunner and, at least through last season, can still play center field when needed. At the plate, Yastrzemski posted the best strike zone indicators of his career last season and showed no drop-off in exit velocity or bat speed.
Those swing metrics could pay off big time at Truist Park, as Yastrzemski is way above average in terms of pulling balls in the air, and his new park, with the Chop House section as a target, is typically welcoming to fly ball-generating lefty pull hitters. Good player, good fit, perhaps one year too long on the guarantee. -- Bradford Doolittle
Orioles land Mets' all-time HR king Alonso
The deal: Orioles sign 1B Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract
Grade: B
It's fair to call this a stunning deal, although maybe less so once it was clear the Orioles had been in pursuit of Kyle Schwarber. This signing is as much about what it means to the Orioles as to what it means for the New York Mets to lose one of the most popular players in franchise history, a player who has averaged 42 home runs and 114 RBIs per 162 games in his career (and he played 162 each of the past two seasons). He's a five-time All-Star, coming off a season in which he hit .272/.347/.524 -- a career high in batting average -- while hitting 38 home runs and an NL-leading 41 doubles.
Alonso's value might have the widest difference in perception between what an average fan might think and the more analytical assessment from MLB front offices. That's even aside from how much stake to put into his 2025 season, which was a much better all-around season at the plate than the previous two, with swing changes that resulted in a shorter swing and utilizing his hips more playing a big part in the improved batting average and contact rate. If those changes hold, Alonso should remain a productive hitter for at least the initial years of his contract, even as he enters his age-31 season.
As far as his overall value, Alonso has averaged 3.7 WAR per 162 games -- a very good player for sure, but not necessarily the superstar level his home run and RBI totals suggest. Alonso tries hard on defense but lacks range. He hustles on the bases but lacks speed. He led the NL with 23 double plays hit into. His career OBP is .341 -- good but not great. All this works to lower his overall value and helps explain why his market was soft when he was in free agency a year ago and why the Mets were willing to let him go despite his popularity in New York.
For the Orioles, they've now added Alonso and Taylor Ward, two right-handed sluggers who combined for 74 home runs in 2025. The Orioles tied for 11th in the majors in home runs in 2025, but they hit 44 fewer home runs than in 2024, so adding power was their clear offseason priority. Their first basemen -- a combo of Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo and Ryan O'Hearn -- were especially weak, ranking last in the majors with just 14 home runs and tied for last with 62 RBIs (they were 23rd in OPS). Alonso might end up at DH, or at least get some time there, but his power will fix a problem at first base.
His durability is a plus. His energy and enthusiasm -- which Mets fans loved -- are a plus, especially for an Orioles team that seemed to lack those characteristics last season. He'll provide a jolt to a lineup that needed it. It's interesting the O's found themselves in this position, considering everyone thought a couple of years ago that they were printing position players. You could also argue that if the Orioles were going to make one big splash this offseason, it should have been for a front-line starting pitcher. Maybe they'll surprise and do that as well.
The $31 million AAV, combined with Alonso's age and lack of all-around game, limit the grade here, but he'll help the Orioles, at least until the .220, 25-homer seasons pop up at the end of this deal.
As for the Mets, they've gone from Alonso to Mark Vientos, Edwin Diaz to Devin Williams, and Brandon Nimmo to Marcus Semien. Those are arguably all downgrades, so it's hard to see the plan here. If Vientos can bounce back to his 2024 numbers, that will help replace Alonso's offense (manager Carlos Mendoza already said Brett Baty will get the majority of time at third base), but the Mets still have holes at DH, left field and center field.
In the end, David Stearns did the analysis and decided Alonso isn't a $150 million player and the Mets can find the offense elsewhere -- or use some of that money to add to a rotation and bullpen that need help. It's not often that a big-market team walks away from a face-of-the-franchise type of player like Alonso. We'll see if that ultimately ends up as the right decision, but Stearns has a lot of work to do the rest of this offseason to get the Mets back to playoff contention. -- David Schoenfield
Phillies bring back NL MVP runner-up Schwarber
The deal: Phillies re-sign DH Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150 million deal
Grade: A
Let's cut right to it: The Phillies had to re-sign Schwarber. It would be hard to envision the Phillies, a team with four consecutive playoff appearances and back-to-back NL East titles, winning a World Series without the slugger who in some fashion has replaced Bryce Harper as the central figure for the franchise. It's no coincidence that the Phillies' run of success overlapped with signing Schwarber to a four-year, $79 million contract after the 2021 season.
During those four seasons, Schwarber averaged 47 home runs, 107 runs and 108 RBIs while hitting .226/.349/.507. He's been a rock of stability, averaging 157 games, and over those four years, he tied for second in the majors in home runs (with Shohei Ohtani) while ranking fourth in RBIs, fifth in runs scored and third in walks. His game is simple: He's trying to hit the ball 500 feet with every massive swing. He hits bombs, he takes his walks, and he strikes out with the gusto of Mighty Casey. That approach worked better than ever in 2025, when he led the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs while hitting .240/.365/.563 and finishing behind only Ohtani in the MVP voting.
Collectively, the Phillies' offense has remained remarkably consistent, scoring between 778 and 794 runs the past three seasons, but that offense has become increasingly reliant on three players: Schwarber, Harper and Trea Turner. While the Phillies had 10 players hit at least 10 home runs, only Schwarber and Harper topped 20. Those three combined for about 77 runs created above average while the rest of the offense was a combined minus-38 runs below average.
Losing Schwarber would have opened up an enormous hole in the lineup -- and while the Phillies were the clear favorite to re-sign Schwarber all along, there was a lot of interest in him from other teams, enough to create believable speculation that he could move on, possibly to the Cincinnati Reds (the team he grew up rooting for) or even to the rival New York Mets, at least if the Mets and Pete Alonso ended up parting ways. In the end, the Phillies did what they had to, even if it perhaps meant giving Schwarber an additional season based on projected contracts (Kiley McDaniel predicted a four-year, $128 million deal in his free agent rankings).
Schwarber will be entering his age-33 season, so this deal isn't without risk. He's coming off his best season, largely due to a dramatic improvement against left-handers, hitting .252/.366/.598 with 23 home runs, after hitting .228/.347/.436 against them from 2022 to 2024. But maybe that improvement is for real: He hit .300 with 12 home runs against lefties in 2024, so this is now consecutive seasons he's hit well against same-side pitching.
As for how he might age, his raw power skills remain elite so those should remain stable for the immediate future: 100th percentile hard-hit rate in 2025, 98th percentile bat speed, 90th percentile chase rate. He swings at strikes, he swings hard, and he hits it hard. As a power-hitting DH, Schwarber draws comparisons to David Ortiz, who aged remarkably well (having one of his greatest seasons in his final year at age 40). That's not necessarily the best comparison, however, because in his mid-30s, Ortiz transformed into a much better contact hitter, cutting his strikeout rate from 22.6% in his age 33/34 seasons to 14.5% the rest of his career. That's not likely to happen with Schwarber, who fanned 27.2% of the time in 2025.
Still, Schwarber projects as one of the best run producers in the game, and it's reasonable to expect at least solid production all the way through his age-37 season. The Phillies still have some holes to address: re-signing or replacing catcher J.T. Realmuto, perhaps re-signing or replacing Ranger Suarez in the rotation, finding a left fielder, maybe moving on from Alec Bohm at third base. But Schwarbs is back. And that makes the Phillies World Series contenders once again. -- Schoenfield
Dodgers land star closer Diaz
The deal: Dodgers sign RHP Edwin Diaz to a three-year, $69 million deal
Grade: A
It's a bad idea to sign a relief pitcher to a long-term contract. But it's not a bad idea to sign Edwin Diaz to a long-term contract, and it's especially not a bad idea for the Los Angeles Dodgers to do so.
You could get really cynical or optimistic about this -- whether you're a Dodgers fan or not. The Dodgers' bullpen plan a year ago was to stock the roster with a ridiculous list of big-name relievers who had all worked in the closing role for various teams. The depth chart was eye-popping: Blake Treinen, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Kirby Yates and Michael Kopech. The plan did not work. Each of those pitchers struggled with injuries, performance or both.
That being the base, you could point at the Diaz signing as an expression of Dodger hubris: They did not learn the most basic of bullpen-building lessons, that there is no such thing as certainty with that position group, no matter how much money you spend on it. Of that quintet, only Scott and Treinen remain on the roster.
So, sure, any and every reliever is a risk, but for the Dodgers, Diaz is more than worth it. Few relievers truly separate themselves from the pack and maintain their status for an extended period of time. Diaz is one of them, and this deal -- strange as it is to say about a reliever -- is a bargain, even if the $23 million average annual value is a record for a bullpenner.
Over the past five years, only Emmanuel Clase has earned more fWAR (8.1) than Diaz among relievers, and Diaz missed the entire 2023 season with a knee injury. During that span, only Mason Miller has a higher strikeout rate among relievers (14.3 K/9 for Diaz) and only Cade Smith has a better fielding-independent ERA than Diaz's 2.14.
Diaz is 31, but last season was one of his best (1.63 ERA, 28 saves in 31 chances), and his underlying traits remain elite. According to Statcast, Diaz rated in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, whiff rate and strikeout rate. His command wavers periodically but his nasty four-seamer/slider combo allows him to work out of jams when it does.
For the Dodgers' depth chart, adding Diaz provides clarity where last year's did not. Having all of those different closer types was nice, but who gets the ninth and in what situation? Now the ninth belongs to Diaz, and the rest of the bullpen plan becomes that much easier to set up on a game-by-game basis, with Treinen and Scott becoming a lethal setup combo if they regress to the better versions of themselves.
And of course, with the Dodgers landing Diaz, that means none of their chief competitors will have him, including the Mets. New York goes from possibly having a much upgraded back of the bullpen with a Diaz/Devin Williams combination to a dynamic in which Williams is now serving as Diaz's replacement. It could be a lot worse because Williams is very good, but it's not the kind of outlook Mets fans might have envisioned as recently as Tuesday morning.
The bargain aspect of the deal is the length -- three years, which is a hedge against Diaz's age. He's been a good health bet except for a fluky knee injury and his stuff has shown no decline. But he's still a power pitcher who throws a lot of high-spin sliders who is on the wrong side of 30.
You have to wonder how many teams could have landed Diaz on a three-year deal. Surely some were willing to go to four years at least, perhaps at a lower AAV but with more overall value. But this is what the Dodgers have become -- a destination. And their uniforms -- not to mention the super-swag championship rings that go with them -- are becoming status symbols among baseball's elite in the way that super-yachts have become the darlings of the mega-wealthy.
The Dodgers, already a definitive favorite to win a third straight World Series, have solidified that status by a few more percentage points. And all it cost them was money, a resource that for them has become all but irrelevant. That is increasingly what puts the Dodgers on the hilltop, and makes the climb for everyone else that much more difficult to complete. -- Doolittle
Mariners acquire LHP Ferrer for Nats prospects
Mariners get:
LHP Jose Ferrer
Nationals get:
C Harry Ford
RHP Isaac Lyon
Mariners grade: C+
Well, the verdict is in from Mariners fans: They universally hate this trade. (It's not often you get an entire fan base to agree on something.) Their feelings are understandable. Ford was the Mariners' first-round pick in 2021 and progressed nicely, advancing one level per season and hitting .283/.408/.460 in 2025 at Triple-A. He has remained a top-100 prospect all along, including No. 65 on ESPN's updated list from August. Sure, he's blocked by Cal Raleigh, but he projected as the backup catcher and part-time DH in 2026.
The return? A lefty reliever with a 4.48 ERA. It certainly feels a little light for a top-100 prospect -- and a hard-to-find catching prospect -- but that ERA undersells Ferrer's potential. He throws a 98 mph sinker 70% of the time that helped him register one of the highest ground ball rates in the majors (99th percentile). He throws strikes (16 walks in 76.1 innings) and dominated left-handed batters (holding them to a .186 average and .521 OPS).
With Gabe Speier the only reliable lefty in the bullpen, the Mariners needed a second lefty and, after ending the season as the Nationals' closer, Ferrer certainly can slot into a high-leverage role. He's exactly what teams want in the postseason: a hard-throwing reliever. Scouts like his secondary stuff and the Mariners no doubt will have Ferrer use his slider and changeup more often, which could take him to an elite level.
Nationals grade: A-
The first major transaction from Paul Toboni, the Nationals' new president of baseball operations, looks like a good one. Anytime you can turn a reliever into a possible long-term starting position player, that's a win. We'll hedge the grade here a bit since Ford hasn't proved himself on the major league level, plus he projects more as a solid regular than a future star, but he should be a significant upgrade at a position that saw the Nationals rank 29th in the majors in OPS.
Indeed, Keibert Ruiz was supposed to be the answer behind the plate for the Nationals when they acquired him in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner with the Dodgers, but he has gone backward since a solid season in 2023, producing an unacceptable .595 OPS in 2025. Ford's biggest strength is an excellent approach at the plate that produced a 16.2% walk rate in Triple-A while striking out less than 20% of the time. With a career .405 OBP in the minors, he could eventually become a top-of-the-order hitter as he also runs well. (He stole 34 bases in 2024.) The power is only moderate and the defense still needs some work around the edges, but Ford should take over as the regular catcher in 2026. -- Schoenfield
Red Sox make another rotation add in trade with Pirates
Red Sox get:
RHP Johan Oviedo
LHP Tyler Samaniego
C Adonys Guzman
Pirates get:
OF Jhostynxon Garcia
RHP Jesus Travieso
Red Sox grade: B-
The American League East is clearly all-in. The Toronto Blue Jays have signed Dylan Cease and Korean League MVP Cody Ponce for their rotation. The Baltimore Orioles signed Ryan Helsley and traded for Taylor Ward and Andrew Kittredge. The Tampa Bay Rays have added outfielders Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley and reliever Steven Wilson. And now the Boston Red Sox have acquired Oviedo after trading for Sonny Gray last week. (The New York Yankees? Trent Grisham accepted their qualifying offer, so he's back.)
While there were other players involved in this trade between Boston and the Pittsburgh Pirates, it's mostly Oviedo-for-Garcia, so let's focus on those two. Oviedo is sort of the polar opposite of Gray, other than the fact that both are right-handers: Oviedo is 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds with a fastball that touches 98 mph while Gray is 5-10 and doesn't throw hard; Gray has been reasonably healthy while Oviedo missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery; Gray pounds the strike zone while Oviedo's control problems have always limited his value (in nine starts in 2025, he averaged 5.1 walks per nine).
Oviedo leans mostly on a fastball/slider, mixing in a curveball and changeup that he uses primarily against left-handers. In his one full season as a starter with the Pirates in 2023, he made 32 starts with a 4.31 ERA and 2.2 WAR, making him essentially a league-average starter. In his abbreviated return of 40 innings in 2025, improved movement on his four-seamer helped limit damage against that pitch as he posted career highs in strikeout rate (24.7%) and batting average allowed (.182) to go along with the high walk rate.
There is obvious upside here, especially if the better results against left-handed hitters in 2025 are for real. In his two years as Red Sox pitching coach, Andrew Bailey has extracted improvement from the likes of Tanner Houck in 2024 (although he got hurt in 2025) and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito in 2025, so it will be interesting to see what Bailey can do with Oviedo. For now, Oviedo projects as a fourth/fifth starter with two seasons of team control and gives the Red Sox plenty of rotation depth: They have Garrett Crochet, Gray, Bello, Kyle Harrison, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Hunter Dobbins, with Patrick Sandoval returning from injury (Houck is likely out for the season after TJ surgery).
With Oviedo set to make an estimated $2 million, it also leaves the Red Sox plenty of payroll room to make a big splash in free agency -- like re-signing Alex Bregman.
Pirates grade: B+
Garcia owns one of the best nicknames in the sport -- "The Password" -- and is a toolsy soon-to-be 23-year-old who will have a chance to start in a Pirates outfield that ranked 27th in the majors in OPS in 2025. There was no room for him in an already crowded Red Sox outfield, so don't view them trading him as a sign they weren't high on his ability.
He is a high-risk player -- but the kind of gamble the Pirates need to take. He hit .267/.340/.470 with 21 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year, but that came with a 131/45 strikeout-to-walk ratio that included a high chase rate, especially after his promotion to Triple-A. He could stick in center field -- depending on what the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz -- but probably projects best as an above-average defender in right field. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel had ranked him as the No. 3 prospect in the Red Sox system in his update this past August.
Garcia could turn into an above-average starter if he improves his chase or could be more of a fourth outfielder with a sub-.300 OBP if he doesn't. The Pirates, of course, haven't exactly excelled at turning prospects into good hitters (see Cruz's regression in 2025), so odds are Garcia probably swings more to the latter scenario. But he's a nice return for two years of Oviedo. -- Schoenfield
Blue Jays sign Korean League MVP Ponce for rotation
The deal: Three years, $30 million
Grade: A-
The last time we saw Cody Ponce in the majors he was one of the worst pitchers in the league. Pitching primarily in relief for the Pirates in 2021, he ranked 426th in ERA out of 436 pitchers with at least 35 innings. He ranked 436th out of 436 in batting average allowed and also ranked 436th in OPS allowed.
Ponce went to Japan in 2022, pitched there for three seasons with mixed results and then joined Hanwha in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2025, where he went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 180⅔ innings to win league MVP honors. Whereas his fastball averaged 93.2 mph with Pittsburgh in 2021, the 6-foot-6 right-hander now sits around 95 mph and gets it up to 99, while mixing in a cutter, curveball and changeup -- the changeup being a new pitch that led to an impressive 36% strikeout rate in the KBO.
Now, the KBO is not MLB. This grade isn't predicting that Ponce is going to be a Cy Young contender but reflective of the contract. At three years and $30 million, it's a worthy gamble for the Blue Jays. If he's a 1-WAR pitcher for three years, he'll at least earn the money back. If he's a 2-WAR pitcher, it's a great deal. If he's a 3-WAR pitcher over the next three seasons, it will be one of the best deals of the offseason.
There have been success stories from U.S. pitchers who went to the KBO and then returned as better pitchers. Merrill Kelly came back in 2019 at age 30 and has averaged 3.3 WAR per 162 games. Erick Fedde went to Korea in 2023 and won MVP honors then returned with a 5.6-WAR season in 2024 (although he faded in 2025). Ponce throws harder than those two. I like his chances to be a midrotation starter, with the bullpen as a nice fallback.
After officially signing Dylan Cease, the Blue Jays are now rolling out a rotation that includes Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios, Eric Lauer and Ponce. Berrios ended the season with right elbow inflammation, so he has a red flag next to his health status, but that's a seven-man group that should help make the Blue Jays the preseason favorite in the AL East -- especially if they also re-sign infielder Bo Bichette.
Their payroll is now clocking in at an estimated $272 million without Bichette, up from $258 million last season (via FanGraphs), but the Blue Jays have made it clear: They want one more win in 2026 and will pay to try to get it. -- Schoenfield
Reliever Williams jumps from Yankees to Mets
The deal: Three years, $51 million
Grade: B-
Consider these two seasons from two-time All-Star reliever Devin Williams, who has agreed to a three-year contract with the New York Mets:
Season A: 37.7% SO rate, 12.1% BB rate, 1.7% HR rate, .129 BA
Season B: 34.8% SO rate, 9.7% BB rate, 1.9% HR rate, .197 BA
The first one is a little better, but they're pretty close other than a spike in batting average allowed, which is somewhat canceled out by a lower walk rate. Those seasons should have produced similar results.
They did not.
Season A was 2023, when Williams went 8-3 with a 1.53 ERA and 36 saves for the Brewers and was regarded as perhaps the best closer in the majors. Season B was 2025, when Williams went 4-6 with a 4.79 ERA for the Yankees, lost his job as closer and faced headlines like "Devin Deadly Sins" after a particularly rough outing in August.
But the numbers indicate at least why the Mets were willing to give Williams a $50 million-plus deal (with a reported $5 million in annual deferrals) coming off his shaky season with the Yankees. The peripheral numbers remained excellent, the home run rate wasn't as high as Yankees fans would lead you to believe, and David Stearns -- who ran baseball operations in Milwaukee when Williams was there and is now in that position with the Mets -- is still buying that Williams' changeup/fastball combo can return him to an elite level.
That's certainly possible. Williams' ERA was bloated largely because of a handful of terrible outings: He gave up three or more runs in six games with the Yankees -- more times than in his career up to 2025. It's also true that his changeup, which he has thrown more often than his fastball in his career, wasn't as dominant. All five home runs he gave up came on his changeup, compared to six on his changeup in 235 innings entering 2025. The whiff rate on the pitch also fell under 40% for the first time, which in turn made his 94 mph four-seamer a little less effective.
It's nothing that can't be fixed with a little more consistency, but there's also no guarantee Williams returns to his performance with the Brewers. Maybe hitters are finally figuring him out a bit. Maybe he lost some confidence after he served up a series-losing home run to Pete Alonso in the 2024 playoffs. All that adds some risk to the contract, especially factoring in that Williams' struggles coincided with his shift from small-market Milwaukee to pressure-packed New York -- and that won't change in moving from the Bronx to Queens.
It's also possible Williams ends up being a very expensive setup man. Longtime Mets closer Edwin Diaz remains a free agent after opting out of his deal, but reports indicate the Mets are still interested in re-signing Diaz (who could be looking for something like the five-year, $95 million deal Josh Hader signed with the Astros).
If Diaz does return, the Mets would be on their way to building the most expensive bullpen in history, with A.J. Minter already on the books for $11 million, Brooks Raley for $4.75 million and a few other holes yet to be filled. Hey, considering what happened in 2025 -- from June 1 on, the Mets were 25th in bullpen ERA, even with Diaz -- it's probably a good idea to spend on what faltered at the end of last season. Williams and Diaz at their best would give the Mets the best 1-2 late-game duo in the majors. -- Schoenfield
Orioles add reliever Helsley on two-year deal
The deal: 2 years, $28 million, player option after 2026 season
Grade: C+
With Felix Bautista down for most, if not all, of the 2026 season because of shoulder surgery, Baltimore had a need for an end-of-the-game reliever. Helsley had been filling that precise role well for the Cardinals for several seasons, before he embarked on a short-lived Mets career that both he and the team would like to forget.
Barring an obvious and measurable drop in stuff, you always want to lean more on baseline performance when it comes to a reliever than the fluctuations that come with year-over-year results. Over the last three seasons, Helsley is one of 12 relievers with at least 4.0 fWAR in the aggregate and only seven have posted more saves than Helsley's 84.
Primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, Helsley reportedly began tipping his pitches at some point in 2025 and opposing batters began ambushing his heater early in counts with much success. He ended up giving up a .422 average and .667 slugging on his four-seamer last season even though his average velocity (in excess of 99 mph) and spin rate was in line with past seasons.
The hope would be that Helsley fixes (or has fixed) the issue and once again is able to pair his high-speed fastball with his high-performing slider, a combo which helped him save 49 games for St. Louis in 2024. The structure of this deal gives him a shot at reentering the market next season after hopefully proving that his performance with the Mets was a fluke.
For the Orioles, Helsley slides into the primary saves role after some early chatter in free agency suggested some teams were looking at him as a possible rotation conversion. The contract is a bit of a risk if Helsley doesn't perform and declines to opt out, as a $14 million average annual value is what you would want to be paying a first-division closer, not a just-a-guy reliever.
At his best, Helsley has been an All-Star-level, high-leverage reliever for multiple seasons, and the Orioles clearly think that his Mets misadventure was a blip, not his new reality. -- Doolittle
Blue Jays make first big pitching splash with Cease signing
The deal: 7 years, $210 million
Grade: B
One of the interesting aspects of MLB free agency is that the number of suitors for a player isn't always directly correlated to on-field value. There are, after all, only so many teams willing and able to spend nine figures. In recent years, we've seen excellent players like Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell settle for shorter-term deals late in the offseason as they waited for that big long-term offer that never came -- or was pulled off the table.
In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes a lot of sense for him to sign early while the money is there. He's a pitcher with clear skills and ability but also frustratingly inconsistent results, which was going to lead to a wide variance in how teams evaluated him -- and thus what offers he received. The $210 million deal the Toronto Blue Jays gave Cease is closer to the high end for him, given Kiley McDaniel's projection of five years, $145 million.
The positive:
Pure stuff: The "Stuff+" metric -- which various sites now calculate based on a whole host of things like spin, movement and velocity -- rates Cease's pitches as some of the best in the majors, including a fastball that averages 97 mph. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025, he tied for 12th in Stuff+ per FanGraphs.
Durability: Cease is riding a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts. Since 2021, he's first in the majors in games started and seventh in innings. Considering the best predictor for future injuries is past injuries, that health history and projected durability give him a high floor for any future deal.
Age: He's entering his age-30 season, clearly still in his prime years.
The negative:
His ERA has jumped from 2.20 to 4.58 to 3.47 to 4.55 over the past four seasons with corresponding changes in his value, from 6.4 WAR in 2022 with the Chicago White Sox to just 1.1 with the San Diego Padres in 2025, when he had a high ERA despite pitching in a good pitcher's park. His road ERA in 2025 was 5.58, which is certainly a concern as he now goes to a better-hitting division and better hitter's park.
His lack of efficiency not only leads to too many walks -- he leads the majors over the past four seasons -- but short outings due to high pitch counts. Cease failed to last five innings in 10 of his 32 starts, which is too often for a pitcher who just got $210 million.
In Cease's best season in 2022, his slider was unhittable while his four-seamer and knuckle-curve were also effective, making him a three-pitch pitcher. The curveball hasn't been nearly as effective since then, with batters slugging .576 against it in 2025, .444 in 2024 and .538 in 2023, making him more of a two-pitch guy now. He started throwing a sweeper and sinker a little more often last season, and maybe the continued development of those pitches will help him get back to being one of the better starters in the majors.
That's what the Blue Jays are banking on. They'll likely note that his Fielding Independent Pitching, which factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed -- has been fairly consistent the past four years: 3.10, 3.72, 3.10 and 3.56, respectively. That averages out to 3.36, with his actual ERA rising and falling depending on the variations of his batting average on balls in play (.261 and .266 in '22 and '24, .331 and .323 in '23 and '25).
At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid middle-of-the rotation starter to go with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. The good version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy for the entire season and Berrios' late-season elbow inflammation was just temporary, that's a rotation that could be as good as any in the game. We knew the Jays were going to strike big this offseason. This might not be their only move of consequence. -- Schoenfield
Red Sox bolster rotation in swap with St. Louis
Red Sox get:
RHP Sonny Gray
$20 million in cash
Cardinals get:
LHP Brandon Clarke
RHP Richard Fitts
Red Sox grade: B+
The Red Sox had three-fifths of an outstanding rotation in 2025, with Garrett Crochet leading the way and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito producing solid campaigns as the second and third starters. That was enough to get the Red Sox back into the postseason for the first time since 2021, but after Giolito declined his part of a $19 million mutual option, the Red Sox were looking for a veteran starter to replace him.
They landed on Gray, who is 36 years old but coming off a second straight 200-strikeout season while also leading National League starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Red Sox have reportedly restructured Gray's deal to pay him $31 million in 2026 with a $10 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027, essentially turning this into a one-year rental at $41 million (with the Cardinals picking up half that tab). It's certainly a great deal for Gray, who no doubt happily waived his no-trade clause to get out of St. Louis.
As for Gray the pitcher, he's an interesting mix. When he can get to two strikes, he's one of the best in the game, ranking fourth in the majors among starters with a nearly 52% strikeout rate (Crochet was first at 54.3%) while holding batters to a .135 average. His sweeper is his go-to strikeout pitch, registering 111 of his 201 strikeouts. His curveball generated a 34% whiff rate.
His problems came against his fastballs, as batters hit .370 and slugged .585 against his four-seamer (which he uses more against left-handed batters) and hit .281 and slugged .484 against his sinker (which he uses more against righties). He also throws a cutter, which he takes a little off on the velocity, but that was also similarly ineffective, with batters hitting .387 off it. The damage against his fastballs led to 25 home runs allowed and a 4.28 ERA, despite the excellent walk and strikeout numbers.
Can that be fixed? With a fastball that averages 92 mph, maybe not. Gray did throw his three fastball variants 53% of the time, so maybe the Red Sox suggest a different pitch mix -- the four-seamer, while it gives him the one pitch Gray throws up in the zone, has been hammered two years in a row now, but was still the pitch he threw most often in 2025.
Overall, Gray plugs a big hole without the Red Sox paying out a long-term contract -- and the Red Sox didn't give up anybody who projected to be an impact player for them in 2026 (such as starters Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who debuted this past season and could be in the 2026 rotation).
Cardinals grade: C
It's not exactly a salary dump, but it has the feel of one, although the Cardinals at least chipped in $20 million to get a little better return on the player side. Fitts could be a bottom-of-the-rotation guy, and given the holes in the St. Louis rotation, is almost certain to get that opportunity. His four-seam fastball, sitting 95-96, was an effective pitch in the 10 starts he made for the Red Sox in 2025, but he hasn't really developed a trustworthy secondary offering. His slider got hit hard and didn't generate enough swing-and-miss. Maybe his sweeper/curveball combo will eventually elevate his game, but he threw both less than 11% of the time.
Clarke, a hard-throwing lefty who has hit 100 mph, was drafted out of a Florida junior college in 2024. He had Tommy John surgery in high school and redshirted one year at Alabama with another injury. The Red Sox limited him to 14 starts and 38 innings in 2025 in Class A, where he registered both high strikeout numbers (60) and high walk totals (27). ESPN's Kiley McDaniel rated him the No. 9 prospect in the Boston system in August and while there's obvious upside if everything comes together, he's not close to the majors and the profile screams reliever risk.
For the Cardinals, they've at least made their intentions clear: If 2025 was "re-set," 2026 is going to be a rebuild. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras could also all be traded before the winter is over. -- Schoenfield
Rangers, Mets swap veterans
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label "blockbuster" starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it's important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas' championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average -- and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it's still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn't as good as that of New York's heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien's contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it's of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York's considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He's not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia's old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We'll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo's bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He's typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It's about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo's power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers' offense very much needed.
Nimmo's contract is a problem, but it's more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he'll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo's deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo's numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. -- Doolittle
Orioles deal former top prospect for Halos power bat
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we're getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year's free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I'm not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore's brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don't like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player -- an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years -- but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He's someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He's patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he's almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That's not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He's a take-and-rake guy who doesn't generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won't be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez's ceiling? I'm not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game's top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I'd feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward's production shouldn't break the bank. Here's a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. -- Doolittle
Mariners kick off the winter by re-signing Naylor
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it's hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners' season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare -- and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It's easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years -- really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates' first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle's.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it's not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor's entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can't run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn't look like he'd be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He's not a star -- 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high -- but he's a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there's some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. -- Schoenfield