Tom Brady missed the first four games of the 2016 season because of suspension, but as we approach the midway point of the NFL season, there is already plenty of talk of Brady being the front-runner for MVP.
Before jumping to any conclusions, let’s dive into the numbers on the New England Patriots quarterback.
Brady has a Total QBR of 93 (out of 100) this season. That would be the highest ever recorded for a full season since the data was first tabulated in 2006. Brady holds the record, amassing a QBR of 89 in his record-setting 2007 season.
He has been remarkably consistent. Brady’s lowest QBR for any game this season was 84 in Week 6 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He has been at 93 or above in each of his other three games. Brady (three games), Matt Ryan (three), Marcus Mariota (two) and Ben Roethlisberger (two) are the only players this season who have recorded a QBR of at least 90 on multiple occasions.
Brady also leads the NFL in completion percentage (73 percent) and yards per attempt (9.8). If that completion percentage held up for the rest of the season, it would set a record.
Historic season?
Brady is a two-time MVP, winning the award in 2007 and 2010. Comparing his four-game starts to each season, he is right on track with 2007 and exceeding 2010.
He had a higher completion percentage through four games in 2007 (79 percent), but Brady’s QBR, touchdown-to-interception ratio and yards per attempt are all better through four games in 2016 than in either of those two MVP seasons.
Brady's QBR of 93 this season is 11 points higher than the No. 2 man on the list -- Ryan.
Downfield passing
As noted in the graphic atop this story, Brady has been exceptional at passing deep downfield this season. On passes thrown at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, Brady is 8-for-14 for 351 yards and four touchdowns. He leads the league in QBR on those types of throws this season.
On those throws, Brady is 3-for-3 targeting wide receiver Chris Hogan and 5-for-6 with 192 yards and three touchdowns targeting tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett.
Great when it matters most
As great as Brady has been all around this season, he has been at his absolute best in some of the most critical times.
Brady has a QBR of 99.7 on third down this season (49 action plays). He has completed 77 percent of his passes at a rate of 14.4 yards per attempt with five touchdowns on third down.
In the red zone Brady is 15-for-18 with eight touchdown passes. He has thrown 11 passes in the red zone to the right side of the field this season. All 11 were completed, including seven scores.
Very few quarterbacks look good under pressure, but Brady has been able to average 8.1 yards per attempt on 36 passes under pressure. Twenty-seven qualified quarterbacks do not average 8.1 yards per attempt on all passes this season. Brady averages more yards per attempt under pressure than Roethlisberger and Eli Manning do when not facing pressure this season.
