Tom Brady is dominating in this look.The New England Patriots are back to winning ways in New England and are atop the weekly ESPN.com Power Rankings coming off their Week 10 open date.
So at the unofficial midpoint of the Patriots' campaign, what formula has keyed their offense this season? Is it a return to the multiple-tight end sets they found success with during their Super Bowl run in 2011?
Is it the up-tempo offense, which ran a play every 25.3 seconds from 2011 to 2013, the fastest pace in the NFL over that stretch? Or has this offense evolved once again to keep the points coming (+83 scoring margin is second in the NFL) and keep defenses guessing?
The Patriots have had a noticeable uptick in offensive formations with two skill players lined up alongside Tom Brady in the backfield. The Patriots' use of backfield formations has increased 11 percentage points this season than the previous two combined, the highest change in the AFC.
Two seasons ago, the Patriots were one of four NFL teams without an offensive snap with a fullback. In 2013, James Develin finished 10th in that same category. This season, Develin has vaulted all the way to third.
So why has this new philosophy been so important to the offensive scheme for the 2014 Patriots? It’s kept the opposition guessing. Josh McDaniels' offense has consistently made it difficult for opponents to know if the Patriots will run or pass out of the backfield formation.
Of 144 plays run from the setup, the Patriots have run the ball on 84 and used play-action on another 30. That means they have run the ball a fairly balanced 58 percent of the time but have run or sold the run on 79 percent of such formations. That makes it difficult for opponents to diagnose the play call.
Their passing game has been even harder to identify, since they used play action on 30 of 60 dropbacks out of the backfield formation. That’s a 50-50 balance, which means opposing defenses needed to prepare equally for either possible outcome on such plays and would have had no statistical advantage in their corner.
This balance has paid big dividends in the passing game, where the Patriots lead the NFL in completion percentage and first downs per passing attempt, and are second in Total QBR with two skill players lined up in the backfield.
Patriots Passing
From Backfield Formations
One reason the formation is so difficult on defenses is because they see a lead blocker in the backfield, which traditionally signals a run play. The Patriots have used that misconception to their advantage to sell the play fake.
When the Patriots have used play action in this setup, New England has had a successful play percentage of 77 percent, far and away the highest mark in the NFL. That is the percentage of plays whose outcome increased the probability of scoring on the drive based on expected points. (Read more here.)
Currently, Washington is a distant second at 63 percent on those plays.
It seems the Patriots continue to innovate and reinvent their offense year after year while maintaining the winning results.