The 'dogs were finally barking in Week 3 with a 10-4 ATS record heading into Sunday night's game. If you backed the teams starting new quarterbacks, you went 5-1 (the Dolphins being the loser -- shocking). A few of those covers may have needed some good fortune (I'm primarily looking at you, Pittsburgh), but I'll dig into some of the recent box scores and break down two games that immediately stood out to me for Week 4.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 4 lines I'm investing in now
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2, 38)
While I was heavy in Vikings teaser usage in spots that I could get them from -8.5 to -2.5, I regretted not laying the points straight as well. It's easy to say after seeing the 34-14 final score, but there were signs in the Vikings' Week 2 matchup in Green Bay that pointed to them performing much better than the result showed. Minnesota outgained the Packers 7.0 yards per play (YPP) to 4.9, but they turned the ball over four times and had 65 more yards in penalties. The Vikings still only lost the game 21-16 and had multiple chances in the fourth quarter to win the game.
So what does this have to do with Week 4? The Vikings have shown three dominant performances despite only being 2-1 (they crushed the Falcons out of the gate in Week 1). I really like the +2 in their matchup against a Bears team that has only managed 19 points through their first two games this season. Sure, Chicago has a pending Monday Night Football game in Washington, but there isn't much that I anticipate can happen there that will change my position on Minnesota. My projection is Vikings +0.1, so at nearly a coin flip game I will happily take the two points with the better team against Chicago on a short week.
Pick: Vikings +2