It's Week 14 in the NFL and that means one thing: it's going to be a "must-win" situation for a few teams each week as they make a playoff push during this final stretch of the season. If you follow sports betting analysis regularly, you've heard the must-win narrative ad nauseam. People irrationally expect teams to play above expectation because they find themselves in one of these must-win spots. Breaking news: a team is only as good as they are -- groundbreaking stuff, I know. It amazes me, however, how many times people expect a team to play better than they are (or that the opposition will suddenly perform worse).
If anything, more often than not, there can be value had playing against the team in a must-win situation. This week we are going to do things a little differently. I'm going to dive into the games teams are playing in that I will deem a must-win and see if there is value betting against them. It's a little arbitrary to begin with, but I'm going to look at the teams whose playoff hopes will dwindle if their Week 14 matchup results in a loss. I'll stay away from the games where both squads arguably need a win (Cowboys-Bears and Titans-Raiders). Let's begin.