On Dec. 15, 1984, Montana State completed a worst-to-first run for the ages. One season after going 1-10, Dave Arnold's Bobcats began the season 2-2 but caught fire offensively, beat a top-10 Boise State team in October and even upset Fresno State 35-31 late in the season. They charged into the 12-team playoff with the No. 3 seed, beat Arkansas State and Rhode Island by a combined 29 points, then unleashed hell on Louisiana Tech in the title game. Quarterback Kelly Bradley threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, Tech didn't score until the final minute of the game, and MSU cruised 19-6.
Montana State has been chasing that title feeling for 40 years. And Monday night in Frisco, Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), the Bobcats have their best chance yet of earning a second ring. All that's left is to defeat FCS' ultimate final boss.
After ceding control of FCS to rival South Dakota State for a couple of years, North Dakota State defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024; the Bison are back in the final for the 11th time in 14 years. They knocked Montana State out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, and after winning eight of nine titles between 2011 and 2019, they're looking for their second title of the 2020s.
Will we see another North Dakota State coronation or will Montana State conjure the spirit of 1984?
How they got here
No. 1 Montana State Bobcats
Record: 15-0
SP+ rankings: first overall, first on offense, second on defense
Key regular-season results: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11
Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17
Defeating FCS royalty comes with its own set of challenges, but there should be no doubting who the best team in FCS has been through 15 games. Montana State has been devastating from start to finish. Despite handing New Mexico a pair of defensive touchdowns, the Bobcats still overcame the FBS Lobos, dominating statistically (total yards: 567-324) and scoring 21 fourth-quarter points to win their season opener.
They've barely wobbled since. Their only tight game to date against an FCS opponent was only sort of tight: On Nov. 16, they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead at eventual quarterfinalist UC Davis before the Aggies scored three late touchdowns (thanks in part to an onside kick recovery) to make it close. No one has had the ball with a chance to take a late lead on MSU since the New Mexico game. South Dakota played an awesome game against the Bobcats in the semifinals and still couldn't get closer than 14 points down the stretch.
No. 2 North Dakota State Bison
Record: 13-2
SP+ rankings: third overall, second on offense, fifth on defense
Key regular-season results: lost to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, lost to South Dakota 29-28
Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21
NDSU took on a tougher schedule and came within six points of an unbeaten record. The Bison led Colorado at halftime but couldn't quite overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns in the second half, falling 4 yards short on a game-ending Hail Mary.
They had to survive an early 38-35 thriller against East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice in the last two minutes, but once the defense found its rhythm, NDSU started looking like NDSU again. Over their past 11 games, only three have been close: the two wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.
Can NDSU tame Tommy Mellott?
MSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-11, 210, So.), TE Rohan Jones (6-3, 235, Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300, Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-5, 310, So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-9, 175, So.)
In his first collegiate game in 2021, he ripped off a 44-yard run. In his fourth, he scored from 74 yards. In his first three playoff games, he threw for 449 yards and rushed for 411 while leading MSU to the national title game.
For most of four years now, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott has been a unicorn, combining ultra-efficient passing with downright reckless rushing, throwing his 208-pound frame around with abandon and doing whatever it takes to get the job done. He got injured early in the 2021 title game against NDSU, and he has been dinged up at some point basically every year since. But if he's in the game, he's probably doing something ridiculous. He has five career 150-yard rushing games (including a 273-yard, three-touchdown performance against Weber State in 2022), and he has five career 225-yard passing games (including a 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against UT Martin in the second round of this year's playoffs).
In 2024, Mellott and his supporting cast have produced the most brilliant offense in FCS. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,494 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott chipping in 915 yards and 14 more scores in less than eight carries per game. Meanwhile, Mellott has completed 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a downright unfair 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He doesn't have a go-to receiver -- he has three: Wideouts Taco Dowler (also an ace punt returner) and Ty McCullouch and tight end Rohan Jones have combined for 100 catches, 1,494 yards and 23 scores.
A case could be made that elite line play was the last piece of the puzzle in head coach Brent Vigen's four-year building project -- it's where the Bobcats most noticeably were lacking in their first few meetings against NDSU and SDSU. But despite starting three sophomores up front, the Bobcats boast an abundance of both talent and raw size up front, averaging 6-4, 305 pounds across the line with a pair of first-team all-Big Sky performers. MSU averages 41.3 points per game and hasn't been held under 31 all season. It was jarring when South Dakota forced four straight punts in the second half of the semifinals, but it didn't help all that much since MSU had scored on five of its first six drives.
NDSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: DT Eli Mostaert (6-3, 289, Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-1, 220, Jr.)
NDSU's defense took a little while to shift into gear in 2024. Including the loss to Colorado and the near-upset against ETSU, the Bison allowed at least 24 points and at least 367 yards in three of their first four games. But in the 11 games since, they've allowed only 15.7 points and 299.1 yards per game despite playing over half their games in that span against playoff teams.
Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques and Kody Huisman have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hurries up front (Huisman also has blocked two kicks), and linebacker Logan Kopp is the prototypical tackling machine. But as has been customary over the last 15 years or so, the Bison's biggest strength is depth. Nine NDSU defenders have recorded at least four tackles for loss, nine have at least two sacks, 12 have defended (intercepted or broken up) at least three passes, 13 have forced a fumble and 14 have recovered one. MSU has the best offense they've faced, but in two games against SDSU (No. 3 in offensive SP+) the Bison allowed an average of just 333 yards and 19 points. They aren't likely to give up too many easy yards, even to Mellott & Co.
A mistake-free Bison attack
NDSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Cam Miller (6-1, 212, Sr.), WR Bryce Lance (6-3, 204, Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-7, 305, Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-6, 305, Sr.)
The bar is high in Fargo, and compared to the absurd talent that has rolled through town over the past 15 years, this NDSU offense is not the most explosive this FCS dynasty has produced. Backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have combined for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns, but they average just 5.1 yards per carry -- good but not elite. Cam Miller has thrown for 3,052 yards and 31 TDs, but his 12.8 yards per completion is less than you'd expect.
The Bison can still ground teams down with mistake-free efficiency, however. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and you just can't take the ball away from them: They've committed an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 games. (Granted, there's some luck involved in that -- they've lost only one of 10 fumbles. But 10 fumbles in 15 games is minimal too.) The line is still huge, averaging 6-5 and 304 pounds, the backs are still hard to bring down (Brown and Kpeenu are 214 and 209 pounds, respectively), and if your safeties bite on a run fake, they can still go deep with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance (964 yards, 16 TDs), whose unreal, one-handed grab sent NDSU to the title game.
THE ONE-HAND GRAB 🤯@NDSUfootball takes the lead with Bryce Lance's third touchdown of the game. #FCSPlayoffs x 🎥 ABC pic.twitter.com/lBNM58RpCA
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) December 21, 2024
While Miller's upside probably doesn't match that of Carson Wentz or Trey Lance (Bryce's older brother), there's nothing you can throw at him that he hasn't seen before: The reigning Missouri Valley offensive player of the year will play in his 67th career game Monday night.
If you aren't careful, the Bison will score on you with special teams too. For as good as MSU's Taco Dowler is in returns, NDSU can get you with either a punt return (Jackson Williams: 10.8 yards per return and one TD) or a kick return (Williams and TK Marshall: 29.9 yards per return and two scores).
MSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: Edge Brody Grebe (6-3, 250, Sr.), LB McCade O'Reilly (6-0, 220, Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-1, 210, Sr.)
When MSU got mauled by NDSU in the 2021 title game, the Bobcats' defense had only two players on the depth chart listed at more than 270 pounds. The Bison did what they do against all overmatched foes and road-graded MSU for 380 rushing yards.
MSU still doesn't exactly have Georgia's mammoth defensive front, but the 2024 Bobcats are bigger than they were in 2021. Starting tackles Paul Brott and Alec Eckert are listed at 290 and 280 pounds, respectively, and Brody Grebe is a sturdy 250 at end. New Mexico averaged 262.8 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents but managed only 152 against MSU, and only Eastern Washington topped 152 on the Bobcats.
To move the ball on them, teams typically have to do it through the air. UC Davis' Miles Hastings, Idaho's Jack Layne and South Dakota's Aidan Bouman combined to go 62-for-92 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions against the Bobcats, and while a lot of that yardage came when these opponents were down double digits, it's still solid work. Of course, it also came with a cost: MSU sacked those three quarterbacks 10 times. Led by ends Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV (combined: 16.5 sacks) and linebackers McCade O'Reilly and Neil Daily (combined: 15 TFLs), the Bobcats have recorded 36 sacks among 85 TFLs this season. You might be able to hit them for a big play here and there, but only if you get them before they get you.
Projecting the title game
MSU's Brent Vigen and NDSU's Tim Polasek both earned their figurative coaching degrees at the University of Craig Bohl -- Vigen coached for Bohl at NDSU from 2003-13 and at Wyoming from 2014-20 (mostly as offensive coordinator), while Polasek joined Bohl's NDSU staff in 2006, stayed in Fargo until 2016 and rejoined Bohl at Wyoming after a stint as Iowa's offensive line coach. The paths of these two coaches have crossed constantly. So, too, have the paths of these teams, and every time they've met in the playoffs, NDSU has prevailed.
Vigen is 47-9 in four seasons at Montana State: 1-2 against FBS teams, 2-2 against rival Montana, 1-4 against NDSU and SDSU and 43-1 against everyone else. He and his Bobcats have been building toward this exact run for a while, and it feels like this is their time to break through. It wouldn't be a surprise, however, if North Dakota State wrecked the Bobcats' plans -- it's what dynasties do, after all.
Three years ago, MSU wasn't quite ready. Mellott got hurt, the Bobcats had no chance of stopping the NDSU run game, and Miller and the Bison rolled. It might be a different story this time around.
ESPN Bet projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/under 56.5) | SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7