New Zealand's series win in India has thrown the race for next year's World Test Championship final at Lord's wide open, but one thing is for certain: the hosts will not be competing. It is a huge missed opportunity for England: they staged the first two finals but fell a long way short of qualifying, and the same will be true when the 2023-25 cycle draws to a close at Lord's next June.
England have been unlikely to qualify ever since they sustained a hefty penalty for maintaining a slow over-rate during the Ashes, and there are imbalances in the WTC's schedule which work against them. They play a high proportion of their fixtures (10 out of 22 in this cycle) against Australia and India - though the same is true for those teams, who reached the last final.
But England's results are damning: they have lost as many Tests as they have won (nine each) in this cycle, and sit sixth out of nine in the table. Even a 3-0 win in New Zealand next month - which seems unlikely after both sides' recent results - will not be enough for them to reach the final and even with those docked points re-added, they would still be a mid-table team.
For all that England's attacking style of play is designed to make Test cricket as attractive as possible, they have largely overlooked the tournament designed with the same intention. Last month, Sri Lanka arrived at The Oval trailing 2-0 in a three-Test series but with a clear aim: "The main thing is we need points for the World Test Championship," their captain, Dhananjaya de Silva, said.
England, by contrast, picked Josh Hull, an incredibly raw 20-year-old seamer, ahead of Matthew Potts, and were bowled out in 34 overs in a frenetic second-innings batting performance. Sri Lanka picked four seamers in overcast conditions and cruised to an eight-wicket win which they used as a springboard, beating New Zealand 2-0 and climbing to third in the table.
Results away from home have cost England dearly: they have played eight overseas Tests to date in this cycle, all of them this calendar year, and lost six of them. Their 4-1 defeat in India has been placed in context by New Zealand's recent win, while their 2-1 loss in Pakistan this month has exposed familiar failings on spin-friendly pitches, both with bat and ball.
It was after the second Test of this tour, in Multan, that Brendon McCullum was asked whether his side had been found out in those conditions. "I certainly don't mind if it spins in the next one," he said. "I think we've got the artillery to be able to handle it, but we'll find out." In Rawalpindi, the evidence continued to stack up against them.
England are a team in transition and are trying to find a balance between their short and long-term needs, but have been leaning too far towards the latter. McCullum tells his players to "live as if you'll die tomorrow" and "be where your feet are" but it has been hard to shake the sense that England saw this tour as a stepping stone rather than a target in itself.
It was a message reinforced by Ben Stokes in his media rounds after England's defeat in Rawalpindi. The basis of his opening comments at the post-match presentation, on the BBC and on Sky Sports, and in his second answer at his press conference, was that they would put this series defeat behind them quickly, and move onto their tour of New Zealand next month.
Stokes then framed Shoaib Bashir's quiet series - nine wickets at 49.55 - as him "getting to learn on the job" as a Test bowler. "I said to him the other day… 'You're getting to learn about yourself as a bowler through the Test match. You're being able to work out how to bowl in different conditions at different phases of the game. How exciting, how good is that?'"
As ever, the Ashes remains English cricket's holy grail, and the ultimate legacy of the Stokes-McCullum era will be shaped around England's results in Australia next winter. Perhaps if Bashir plays a role in an England victory, the investment will be worthwhile - but it was still a startling admission that he was underqualified. The contrast with Sajid Khan, Bashir's opposite number and the player of the series, was damning.
England have played some exhilarating cricket in the last two-and-a-half years, and the first Test of the Pakistan tour featured their latest in a series of remarkable recent overseas wins. But they must also face up to the fact that their results this year are those of a middling Test team, not one of the world's best.
They have now passed up the chance to play at home in three successive WTC finals and it may not return soon: Jay Shah, the BCCI secretary, said in May that he had raised the question to the ICC of moving the final to a new venue; in December, he will take over as ICC chair. England have squandered the gift of home advantage, and only have themselves to blame.