Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus "The Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN Fantasy analysts Joe Kaiser, John Cregan and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
1. Which top 25 player on the Player Rater (based on averages) are you most concerned about being a bust after the All-Star break?
Kaiser: Rajon Rondo, because George Karl's job is reportedly in jeopardy in Sacramento, and if Karl is fired I don't see Rondo performing up to the level he has over the first half of the season. Point guards have always flourished under Karl, dating back to his days with Gary Payton in Seattle, and Rondo has been the perfect fit for his up-tempo system. A new coach may change all that, and could lean more heavily on Darren Collison, and those things worry me.
Cregan: (I'll throw out the fright-suffused aftershocks of disquietude I'm still experiencing after seeing Jimmy Butler in a wheelchair this weekend). It feels a little unfair picking on Kemba Walker. After all, he's done one of the best jobs in imaginary basketball on over-delivering on his midrange ADP (61.8). But this might be the time to sell high after a series of God-mode performances, all logged in the absence of several key contributors.
Carpenter: Pau Gasol. This has nothing to do with his skills or role -- both remain excellent for his fantasy production -- but rather his age and workload. Gasol is 35 years old and averaging 33 minutes per game as the centerpiece of the Bulls' frontcourt offense. I'm not particularly concerned with the hand injury with which he has been dealing lately, but lest we forget that prior to him playing 78 games last season, he failed to top 60 games in his previous two campaigns. If you have Gasol and your team is pushing toward a title, it may be wise to move him for a younger, safer piece.
2. Rookie Stanley Johnson has looked terrific lately, especially with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sidelined. KCP should be back soon after the All-Star break, so how do you expect Johnson to perform in fantasy terms the rest of the season?
Kaiser: Johnson has looked like he belongs in the NBA from the moment he first stepped on the court as a rookie this season, which is encouraging because not all rookies are that way. The one thing he has needed to improve is his shooting. After shooting 40.2 percent in November, 37.5 percent in December and 40.6 percent in January, he is shooting 44.9 percent in February and taking 12.3 shots per game. At 19, he's only going to improve the rest of the way.
Cregan: In the preseason, I touted Johnson as a dark horse ROY candidate. He's not going to beat out Karl-Anthony Towns (or Kristaps Porzingis), but Johnson sports one of the most NBA-ready made skill sets. Furthermore, Johnson has more multi-positional and multi-categorical potential than any other player in this draft class. That versatility means his fantasy value isn't intrinsically linked to Caldwell-Pope's health. It all rests with the amount of trust he earns from Stan Van Gundy. Divining the quotes, the early signs look positive. Plus Johnson has exponentially higher upside than Caldwell-Pope. He's going to be more efficient. All that's required are minutes.
Carpenter: I've made no secret of my love for Johnson's upside both as a Pistons fan and a fantasy junkie, so I'm not the least bit surprised by the production we have seen from him when given enough minutes. The issue is KCP and Marcus Morris are entrenched as the starters at the 2 and 3. Johnson has more raw talent and upside than either, so we can hope that SVG turns the rookie loose as a starter at some point, but that doesn't appear likely, barring injury. However, he can still help teams as a reserve, so keep him rostered to see how he fares once KCP is back.
3. After struggling for much of December and January, Jeff Teague has been playing much better of late. What are your expectations for him the rest of way?
Kaiser: Whatever Teague was struggling with, whether it be nagging injuries or a lack of confidence, appears to be a thing of the past. Over the second half of the season, I expect him to play more like the player he was last season (15.9 PPG, 7 APG, 1.7 SPG) than the player who averaged only 11.9 points and 4.7 assists during the month of January.
Cregan: Teague wasn't struggling so much as he was playing hurt. He was a great buy-low candidate back in December. By now, you're too late. He's a top-30 player from here on out.
Carpenter: I still feel like he is overrated as a fantasy asset, because he doesn't do anything exceptionally. And for a player who doesn't fit that billing, he doesn't carry the volume necessary to be a big-time all-round stat stuffer. That said, he seems to be healthy now and hitting his stride, so he should continue to be a quality player who will help rosters in all formats going forward.
4. Otto Porter Jr. had one of his better games of the season Saturday, when he racked up 20 points, two 3-pointers, eight rebounds and four steals against the Hornets. How do you think he will fare after the All-Star break?
Kaiser: I'm higher on Porter than most, because he doesn't hurt you in any area in category leagues and is one of those players who continues to improve the more he plays; it's easy to forget he's still only 22 years old and has started only 53 games in his NBA career. Porter enters the week averaging 1.7 steals and 1.1 3-pointers per game, which makes him a valuable asset, and he is also a solid secondary contributor in terms of points (12.2 PPG) and rebounds (5.3 RPG). I think there's a good chance he'll improve upon these numbers -- even if only slightly -- after the All-Star break.
Cregan: It's hard to trust any Wizard at present outside of John Wall. They've limped through a tough schedule and myriad injuries to a disappointing record and virtually no hope of attracting Kevin Durant. That being said, the Wizards still have the ability and opportunity to put it all together and make a run toward respectability in an overstuffed Eastern Conference. Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Porter could all represent decent buy-low opportunities. Of the three, Porter has the least amount of upside. His ceiling is probably around 60-70 on the Player Rater.
Carpenter: I've been intrigued by his long-term fantasy potential since he entered the league, and we've finally seen some of that reflected in his production in steals, 3s and FG% over the past couple of months. The real key for him taking it to the next level will be taking more free throws to improve his scoring and contributing more on the glass. He will have the chance to do both of those down the stretch, but the safe bet is that he settles in as a reliable player to round out starting lineups in fantasy leagues and not an impact player down the stretch.
5. Name a player owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues you like as a long-term addition for the rest of the season.
Kaiser: Willie Cauley-Stein (22.7 percent owned) is a rookie who has proven himself to be a big force over the last month. Eligible at center and power forward, Cauley-Stein is a high percentage shooter because most of his shots are dunks and put-backs, and he's also a solid contributor in terms of rebounds, blocks and steals. As long as he continues to play close to 30 minutes a night, whether under Karl or another coach, he has a good chance at a big second half of the season.
Cregan: I can't believe Al-Farouq Aminu is owned in less the 50 percent of leagues ... I won't even dignify that percentage with a response. Marcus Smart has huge upside. We've already discussed Stanley Johnson. Cauley-Stein I like. Gary Harris too. I'll stick with Johnson.
Carpenter: Danny Green. No player was as infuriating to me in the first half of the season, as he struggled mightily with his shot and every other aspect of his previously well-rounded fantasy game. But he has looked more and more lately like the glue guy I expected him to be. Last month, he averaged 2.0 3-PPG, 2.2 APG, 1.0 SPG and 1.0 BPG. Over his past six games, he has knocked down 18 3-pointers and pulled down 31 boards. Yes, he isn't going to be an impact scorer, but the rest of the stats are there for the taking, and his role should remain steady with Manu Ginobili out of the picture, making Green a terrific player to round out starting lineups in roto leagues.