Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe.
Which player should fantasy owners trade now, because his value has already peaked for the season?
Joe Kaiser: This answer hurts, and it will require the ultimate bravery test, but if you're ever going to sell high on Anthony Davis, this is the time. The Brow has been phenomenal from the first game on this season, putting up MVP-caliber numbers: 31.6 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, 2.8 BPG, 0.6 3PG, 50.3 FG%, 82.3 FT%. He leads the league in points and blocks per game and is sixth in rebounds per game. More importantly, the oft-injured big man has played in all but one of the Pelicans' 22 games.
It will take real guts to trade a player like this, but keep in mind that there's a good chance Davis won't be a factor by the time your team is in the playoffs, especially if he continues to lead the league in minutes per game as he does right now, logging 38 minutes a night. Keep in mind that never in his first four NBA seasons did he play more than 68 games, and if you can get two top 15 players for him right now -- we're talking a Kemba Walker and Karl-Anthony Towns type of trade -- then you probably should think long and hard about unloading one of the game's most talented, and fragile, players.
Kyle Soppe: I am all for trusting the process when it comes to building a fantasy team... and that is exactly why I am selling my Joel Embiid shares sooner rather than later. Look, he's a fun own, I get it. But he is averaging more 3-pointers made this season than Jamal Crawford (in fewer minutes), more blocks than Andre Drummond and Pau Gasol combined and more points per minute than Damian Lillard. C'mon now. Let's not forget that Embiid could hit a wall given his youth (22 years old) or the fact that he is a 7-footer who has already had foot surgery.
The man is a beast, no one doubts that, but his minutes are being watched carefully and he's not playing back-to-backs, so when the statistical regression comes...and it will... it will impact fantasy owners in a major way as he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to sheer volume. Embiid's usage rate should dip in the near future, something that I believe lands him outside of our top 50 (on a per game basis, even further in cumulative stats) when all is said and done.
Jim McCormick: I'm in a competitive rotisserie league and was recently offered Andrew Wiggins for Clint Capela. This spurred me to dive deeper into Wiggins' numbers to produce a reasonable response (I eventually declined). Cursory research reveals Wiggins is currently 96th on the Player Rater, well below Capela's perch at No. 51 on our standard deviation model. The Player Rater isn't an all-encompassing evaluation tool, but it does offer insights into the diversity of a given player's production. Since the index values statistical balance, Wiggins' top-heavy profile is punished. Which is to say Wiggins provides a bevy of points via a volume of field goal and free throw attempts, but isn't helpful in defensive metrics, assists or rebounds relative to his position.
Wiggins' point production is valuable, but limited statistical diversity caps his ceiling in category-driven formats. I'd look to market Wiggins if I had shares given the appeal of his scoring production and the value of his brand. The 3-point efficiency from early in the season is crashing, as he's shooting 21.6 percent from beyond the arc during his past 10 games after hitting an unsustainable 52.3 percent from this range during his first 11 outings. For a player with his speed and wingspan, only 0.6 steals in 36.6 minutes is glaringly light. Wiggins is certainly a talented prospect who can surge defensively in seasons to come and is only growing as a scorer, but he's currently somewhat hollow in fantasy regards and will likely still net you a sizable return at the moment. That is, unless, you offer him to me.